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convector

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Everything posted by convector

  1. convector
    The movement is really unpredictable on this thing, it's no wonder the models have a hard time. If only the general public could grasp this - tonight would be a great example of why storms aren't so easily forecast.
  2. convector
    That MCS is really wrapping up now, with main ppn bowing north - it's teasing me! Tempted to chase but i feel like it'll suddenly change course again.
  3. convector
    Thanks for the suggestions. Looking at the radar loop though, it seems to be heading more north at this point due to the rotation. I'm still not so sure, though - it's a tough one to call..
  4. convector
    anyone here know any good viewpoints along the a34?
  5. convector
    Until today, i wouldn't have even expected development until much later. Far too early to call it a bust for central/SE.
  6. convector
    The storm over the channel has started to take on an interesting form. Is it possible for an MCS become a bow echo, or does it already fall under that category?
  7. convector
    yeah, the thing with these is that it'll appear to be moving due north, but then make a right turn, clipping kent.
  8. convector
    That MCS over the channel looks rather impressive on radar - might be worth compiling a gif later.
  9. convector
    I can attest to this; haven't seen a good storm i didn't need to chase for since 2014/2015.
  10. convector
    storm events in the uk up were far more frequent up until around 2013, if i recall correctly - at least in the last 10 years or so.
  11. convector
    surprised how little talk there is on the cells heading for cambridge. in hindsight, setting up there at the start of the day would've been a great call
  12. convector
    The amount of cumulus clouds have increased over the hour, as visible on satellite - so that's somewhat promising. Going by xc, it looks like convergence is establishing over the SE up through lincolnshire, where easterlies meet westerlies.
  13. convector
    That's just a flaw in the netwx model. There is specifically no cape under the ppn, i assume, because it accounts for the change in atmospheric conditions, locally.
  14. convector
    anyone noticing the line of cumulus developing over northampshire?
  15. convector
    surely if the cap was eroding we'd be seeing cumulus at much lower levels
  16. convector
    keeping an eye on that cell north of stoke-on-trent
  17. convector
    probably being throttled by the cap
  18. convector
    looks like the caps broken in northern ireland
  19. convector
    Is it just me or are things looking more promising south of the main risk area. All that cloud/rain can't be good for insolation; though, there's still the problem of finding a trigger.
  20. convector
    ah, cool. my apologies. i wasn't aware you could be incorrect when clearly exaggerating.
  21. convector
    plain incorrect? storms initiating around and north of the peak district seems to be the general consensus among models at the moment.
  22. convector
    another day of chasing anoprops *sigh*
  23. convector
    If you're referring to 2014, there was a impressive low-topped supercell that day which passed through oxfordshire. Unfortunately, i don't have the GFS charts for that day, but here's the sounding and radar (i have more photos too, if anyone's interested). If those CAPE/Li values really are accurate for tomorrow, i can only imagine the storms it could support.
  24. convector
    speck over birmingham lol
  25. convector
    It does look to be steering north now
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