Britneyfan
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Posts posted by Britneyfan
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Looking at the gfs it is already backtracking, the latest run hardly brings us anything cold
1 hour ago, Daniel* said:Britney is rather quiet
EPS is going with Arctic plunge to end March..
What a turnaround also with strat intensify forecast. Yesterday stratospheric wind reversed to easterly could be the final warming about 3 weeks earlier than normal, and quite sudden so quite a lot in common with SSW rather than usual more gradual decline of vortex, if only it was so easy in winter..
Well the latest gfs run keeps the cold air away from us! So I think your up the wrong way again
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4 minutes ago, Freeze said:
They do in winter, but not in spring when you don't want them!
Again, as it is currently almost 2 weeks away, it has 0% chance of verifying and that will not happen, people need to stop posting day 10 charts, they are different on every single run, it’s tiresome and pointless reading comments on charts which never verify
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And completely unlikely to verify might I add, before everyone yet again jumps on the same bandwagon with colder weather! 99% of the time northerlies get shunted east
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29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Immediate timeframe a long drawn Saharan southerly, then continental warmth and a gentle SE tug. As we end the month both ECM and GFS show heights advecting NW and a scandi trough forms exposing us to much colder northerly sourced air as April arrives. All quite normal in Spring.. southerly vs northerly switcharounds. Could be exchanging shorts for winter woolies..
northerlies always get watered down or shunted east or west, fully expect that to happen
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3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
That’s because ‘if’ winds turn east they are only arriving Sunday/Monday.
Even then they are showing temps 14 and 15° ecm is much less keen on any easterly and same for ukmo, gfs aways gets over friendly then drops it nearer the time
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Met office and bbc are not onboard with any cold easterly infact next Friday they are forecasting 18° at Heathrow and London at 15° which is still above average
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3 minutes ago, jon snow said:
One day I hope we get hot tropical ? summers! …anyway, for now I’ll have whatever the 18z has been drinking.. cheers…
Personally I would rather our winters be about 25° and summer around 32°
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Cold and snow is just disgusting at this point, but luckily we live in the uk, so downgrades and it being nothing more than a blink and you miss it affaire is the way forward
one day I hope we get hot tropical winters
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Absolutely no point hoping for a snowy spell next week, apart from say hills, even met office expect the outcome to turn mild during next week
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Gfs is looking warm actually, much much better
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Well on the latest run showing 85mph here in south Essex, goodbye roof
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Was just reading Liam Dutton on Twitter about the storm, he says it looks increasingly likely that it will trend south, and strongest winds will be over France etc, so I expect the gfs to back down tomorrow, might still reach 50mph along the coast
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3 hours ago, Alderc said:
Goodness me what a disaster. We go from weeks of endless muck to a full on Atlantic assault on the GFS this morning, this backs up where the UKMO and ECM were going last night. Given how cold April was and the terrible May certainly the worst warm period (April-Sept) I can ever remember. Still I’m sure some will attempt to start polishing this up.
Good about time we had some raging westerlies
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5 hours ago, Alderc said:
The stats clearly swing towards those enjoy eternal autumn and struggle with anything even warmer than room temperature. Already we are down to 18C, another 90mins it’ll be 16C and it’ll be too cold to sit outside the pub without a coat or jumper. Hopefully they’ll have the fire on.
20/21 is a perfectly good summer temp absolutely nothing wrong with that
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September can be a beautiful month, august has a history of being like autumn with some hot or humid days thrown into the mix
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Tbh a lovely warm day here in south Essex seemed to have missed the showers and temps currently 22° can’t complain
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Personally hoping Italy for the win, but liking the look of the models, think there will be further changes but seems like high pressure will have a better influence later next week
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I don’t understand why people take unsettled weather so personal, who cares it’s the British weather, being an island it’s not surprising or shocking or a disaster if we endure 3 weeks of crap weather, models will chop and change and even under this low pressure I’ve reached 20, 21° each day even today it’s 19° and that’s with cloud cover, the models are still unsure on the outlook, it could change on the next run to hot and sunny who knows, that’s the excitement of British weather and model outlook, enjoy the model watching whatever the realistic outcome is
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Temps look respectable to me, low twenties in the south east with thunderstorms and showers and a humid feel, I won’t knock that at all! Actually quite fun! Today here we reached 21° and now I’m watching a thunderstorm roll across! Perfect for me
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Have to say here in south Essex outside London, this June is going far far better than June last year! For the first week anyway! Last year had a lot of high teen days, this year only had 1 day below 20° every day apart from one has been over 20° with 27.2° being the warmest, although that looks to be beaten Sunday and Monday!
fantastic June so far! Even my birthday on the 6th june reached 23° last year my birthday it only reached 15°-
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Surely that will feel super humid?
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2 minutes ago, wimblettben said:
People in the model discussion going on about a SE/NW split next week but we already have a SE,NW split now.
The last few days here even in just Wales have been overcast and cloudy and not like the more summery weather other areas seem to be getting.
Yup here in the south east it’s been warm, humid and temps low to mid twenties with decent sunshine
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Tbh with all the warmth we have had in the south east and the heat to come before mid next week I wouldn’t mind a week or so of unsettled weather, garden could do with it
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Beautiful day blue skies not a single cloud reached 27.2° currently 26.7° south Essex
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The ecm snowfall charts are completely useless, any snow depth chart is useless, for example the ground has had weeks of mild/warm weather, any snow wouldn’t stick for long, besides, it still won’t be cold enough for snow and the ECM is still the extreme option and unlikely to verify
GFS is likely correct