Britneyfan
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Posts posted by Britneyfan
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My current max mean for May is 15.1° last year it was 18.2° oh well not every year will be the same, it does look like high pressure moves in, so could be a nice end to spring if everything works in our favour, depends where the high ends up but if it can push east a bit then we could get low 20s to end May start June, would be a nice start to summer, so let’s see what happens
april max mean = 11.2°
may max mean = 15.1° (so far)
south Essex
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18z not looking too bad either
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Managed to reach 18° here today so looking at the charts I would like to think any form of high pressure will help with some homegrown heat, if it’s possible to reach 16/17 under the current conditions, a lovely high pressure with sunshine will easily boost temps into the low 20s, just hope the high does not set up too far west,
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Been a nice day today in south Essex couple of showers popped up but lots of warm sunny spells and temps 18° which was lovely
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Actually been a lovely day here in south Essex temp is currently 17° and some good sunny spells
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Models will always chop and change each run, the more they do that the more uncertainty there is, and they are also at the bottom end of the ensembles, who knows this evenings run could show something completely different, don’t take each model run too seriously
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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I think 2018 had a long period in spring with the jet stream well north so the high pressure systems from the Azores just kept on coming. But you are right that wasn’t imported heat from plumes from the south.
After this month, just need the high pressure first, get that in and the heat will come. Do I sound like ‘get the cold in and the snow will come?’ Well possibly.
This year we are approaching summer from a lower base, but the sun is strong, and there is plenty of fine warm weather from the ECM T240:
And to take, hopefully, one last look from a NH perspective, there is nothing horrible over Greenland to interrupt the transition, gradually, to summer conditions in my view:
So slow build of heat, granted, but settled high pressure conditions on the way, paves the way for summer…
Fantastic, had a feeling 2018 had a lot of homegrown heat, dont think we will repeat that lol but who knows once we get high pressure in place at this time of year we could still see temps reach low twenties even without a southerly influence, it really is the power of the sun, as long as don’t end up with a cloudy high pressure as that could limit the amount of sun we get, although, that size high pressure I would imagine the cloud wouldn’t materialise?
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17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
ECM T168 really positive chart looking to push the high in at just a week away.
Work to do on the T850s as we all know given the spring we have had, and it may be a case of home growing the heat, but the sun is approaching its highest strength so I’m not worried about that:
Edit: T192 out:
As long as we get the high pressure we can get a nice homegrown warmth isn’t that what happened in 2018?
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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Let’s be honest I think as long as we can keep the -5c 850s away it should be relatively pleasant. Even under +2 850s which is below average with several days of sun we’d see temps up to 20-22c given the strength of the sun. Would be cold overnight by would take that now.
Agreed just need the high pressure now the sun will build the warmth at this time of year in april example managed to get a high of 18° despite a cool airmass just thanks to the sun
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5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
16°C is average for the beginning of May though in much of SE England, by the end of the month it rises to 19°C. How long was it 16°C for today? Heathrow was more like 13°C for much of the day. So current temperatures are not good, especially with all the cloud and showers around. Nice to see convection and hear thunder but it needs to warm up now.
Not according to the met office, 16 degrees is the monthly high for my part in Essex, it’s 14° at the start and 17° at the end taken from the met office website for my area, and the high at Heathrow was 16.5° you can check on meteociel
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Oooh finally come cross model agreement for high pressure to end the month! It’s had signals for a while but lacked the cross model support, that seems to be changing now
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Had plenty of heavy showers today I’m south Essex but managed to reach 16.1° which felt nice in the sun, and you can really feel the warmth in the sun!
even shoeburyness reached 16 today and the mean is running 14.7° which is only slightly below average for May which is 16so actually not doing too badly in south Essex tbh, below average yes but not as bad as other parts of the country, only 1 degree below
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15 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:
Are you flying to Portugal or something!?
I can’t see any Summer heat (25+ C) through the rest of this month - last five days of May still in recovery mode to something resembling average.
Through the first week of June…something a bit warmer hopefully! (20C+)I would love you to be correct though @Mike Poole so good luck with that prediction.
Tell you what…can’t wait to see the UK bathing in yellow/orange/red 850hPa temperatures!
Had enough of the old blue/green! Latest ECM:
Pretty amazing that a temperature recorded on 30/03 will be our hottest temperature of Spring 2021.
Compare that to the hottest UK Spring temperature of 2020…
Current weather…Monday to Wednesday more showers, sunny spells and feeling pleasant in any sunshine!
Thursday starts off alright but then goes down the toilet through the afternoon/evening. (Current output - detail/timing subject to change!)
UKV snapshots:
15:00
21:00
Friday 00:00
Rest of Friday through to Sunday…sunny spells, more showers, spells of prolonged rainfall, and temperatures slightly below average.
Looking much further ahead…quite excited now about the official start of Meteorological Summer! Average June maximum temperature here is a whopping 17.5C!
Met Office outlook currently suggests average temperatures UK wide into the first week of June with some warmer days and some cooler nights.
I would bank that at the moment…alongside plenty of sunshine!Latest ECM weekly temperature anomaly for the first week of June - similar…temperature wise. (Interesting to see the update tomorrow night)
Looking forward to my second favourite season of the year beginning on June 1st!…Have a good week everyone!
It’s my 30th June 6th so I’m praying for average which is 20° in June for here
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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
ECM is good by day 10. I like the fact that the last 2 runs have completely gone away from rebuilding the Greenland high as we saw a day or two back. If that disappears we have a better chance of something warmer and more settled building in.
This volatility is more like a winter cold chase! Every run wildly different. The old adage applies - more runs needed.
Omg it’s like being on an emotional rollercoaster
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I have had a few bbqs this month so I can’t complain too much, the warmest bbq was on Sunday when it was 21°
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We will deffo get some above average days over summer, even this month I’ve had a few days above average so just depends how hot it can get
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2 minutes ago, B87 said:
That would be a record.
Well always gunna be a record to be had, if we continue below average like we are now then 18 to 20 is the best during July and august with the odd above average day thrown in
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6 minutes ago, B87 said:
June 1991 was the 2nd coldest June on record (and the dullest until 2012 and 2016 came along). Followed by an average July and a warmish August. Warmest day of the year was in September here. It was a below average summer.
After the spring we have had, I'd rather see a good summer.
Funny enough I was born June 1991 and now it’s my 30th this June, so naturally history gunna repeat itself
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I’m going to say 26° will be the highest temp of the year, generally most days during summer 18 to 20° cloudy and wet with showers or rain,
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Finally had some sunny spells in south Essex and the temp has now reached 15.5° which is warmer than yesterday! Looks like plenty of heavy showers too
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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
but where! post is useless unless location in profile/sig etc
Sorry forgot to mention, I don’t like my location on personal choice but was meant to add south Essex/London border
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I cannot stand all this cloud!!! I do not mind sun and showers cos at least you see the sun and it’s exciting, instead we just stuck under endless grey cloud, with showers you can get some really exciting cloud shapes etc,
but overcast grey muck is depressing and useless, just reached 13° though
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Think I’ve accepted a cooler summer now, if not I have become paranoid over the models and watching for any signs of a flip to warm! I will just be happy for Max temps in June to reach 18 then 20 July and 21 august
I know that’s disappointing but it’s still warm at least; anything above is now a bonus as far as I’m concerned
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I’m going to guess that the warmest day of the year will be 24° in the London area sometime in July or august, especially if this below average weather continues, yes we have had a few days above average here and there, which is why 24° might be possible in London as the average is 23 July and august
May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
What was the CET for spring 2013? I read that it was potentially cooler than this spring? Is that correct?