Another hopeless rainfall forecast from the GFS again today. Totals of 15-20mm were showing in the last couple of days. Total at Old Trafford cricket ground? 3.3mm since midnight. The local forecast right now, based on the 1200 run, shows 4mm in each 3 hour period. It just has no handle on the fact that south Manchester is low-lying, surrounded by hills, and we get the opposite of orographic lift: the rain just fizzles to drizzle as the airflow descends the hills.
One day I'll learn and not rely on it...