LightningLover

Don't mean to laugh but that's funny haha

Expect very little, be pleasantly surprised!

@Eagle Eye Too early to party yet, but yes cautiously optimistic!

Might be an outdated UKV run?

I do believe July 2019 was the last proper, large, non-linear MCS that hit the Central South, or anywhere in the UK in fact!

AROME wanting 1,900Jkg CAPE in the mid channel!

Looking potentially good for a sweaty, tired 03:00 post from me!

UKV gives us a 19:00 initiation and a 04:00 clearance! Probably the ceiling in terms of longevity.

No shortage of CAPE on the 18z AROME, blimey! That stark 'hole' is likely the result of an MCS exhausting nearby instability.

Let's pray so!

I see the the 15z and 18z misses Bexhill entirely... Not particularly surprised lol

I also note with some interest that the AROME, WRF-NMM and to a lesser extent the UKV 12z seem to be picking up on a renewed pulse of instability during Monday morning as the very last of the warm air mass is shunted away. One to watch for a potential uptick in elevated storms across the channel? Example given below with the AROME.

The morning/early afternoon push of instability and showers/thunderstorms is looking rather weak and fragmented in my eyes. From around 19:00 onwards, a more substantial push of CAPE and general instability from France is expected, hopefully culminating in elevated convection initiating from around 20:00 and lasting well into the late evening! Lots of uncertainty as ever, but great signs from the UKV and AROME models for our locale.

Fingers crossed tomorrow evening for Sussex!

Or the far SE!

3 hours of moderate rain!

Thing is, July 2014 was on another level severity wise, as Hastings (Where I was living at the time) was pounded by 60mph wind gusts and some of the largest hail I've ever witnessed (Must've been 4-5cm or so!). So Whilst I agree that later MCS's had higher amounts of visible lightning (partly owing to the fact most of the memorable ones occur at night), the 2014 was a proper day time beast after a 32c day!

Argh that description hurt my soul, what I wouldn't give for something like that to punch through the oppressive evening here!

3 rounds of thunder/lightning here in Bexhill, mostly comprised of IC and CC bolts, but also some impressive CGs that repeatedly struck the Channel and Pevensey Bay area. Incredibly humid during the afternoon, dew point must've touched 20c at one point, and almost an inch of rain fell in just a couple of hours. Fairly good event I'd say, especially considering it was largely unexpected (although my senses tingled upon seeing the convection form west of Brighton). It was my favorite kind of training convection stalled boundary scenario. Similar to June 2016 in some ways, although no huge overnight MCS as a finale like that one had! A 7.0/10 from me, would've been even better if it had occurred overnight visibility wise!

Not quite, most models yesterday had the high CAPE swept away by 16:00.

That event really was one of the classics in the 2010's- 13 hours of continuous thunderstorm activity in Hastings.

ARPEGE 6z wants up to 1,600J/KG CAPE in the channel right until the evening hours- Level of trust? Quite low after this morning, but interesting to see the unstable air perhaps hanging around for longer!

And of course the Norfolk cells took steroids in the North Sea!

Done being grumpy AROME? lol

Encouraging!