LightningLover

Could still change!

Quietly hopeful that the boundary is too far south on most models, and that the S/SE will be repeatedly slammed!

Active cell has kicked off over France- hopefully a good sign of things to come!

UKV 15z is encouraging, a direct hit by a Multicell cluster around 08:00 followed by further bouts of organised thunderstorms running close to the coast until midday.

Sferics south of Channel Islands

Hopefully!

Meanwhile, a stark shift south on the AROME 12z.

Thank you! It caught my attention as the 2016 one was nothing short of spectacular (and caused severe flooding across the SE). One thing I note immediately is the much higher T850's tomorrow

Exceedingly Similar!

Food for thought- I recall 22-23rd June 2016 had a rather similar set up to this one coming, wherein it's more of a boundary between a warm humid airmass and cool northerly as opposed to a plume with a long fetch southerly. That event was one of my favorites, as it gave Hastings (where I was living at the time) a solid 13 hours of continuous thunder and lightning from training convection- and a large, channel filling MCS during the early hours of the 23rd to boot! I'm sure @SenlacJackcan vouch for that!

Arome advertising a healthy ~1,300j/KG MUCAPE over a swathe of East Sussex, with isolated pockets of up to 1,600! Not giving up on this one just yet lol, I need this!

03:00

23c here with a dewpoint of 19c... 21c at 01:00 and feeling like 22, will be a very sultry night for chasing! Warm rain if we get a storm.

No need to be sorry- We are very much still in the game and have the most favorable parameters haha

Yeah slightly trepidatious at how it's over Bexhill already! Must think positive... At least we have some leeway in East sussex, especially considering we'll have the highest T850s, highest CAPE and Theta-W values. Also the highest PWAT values for what that's worth.

Latest UKV 15z is a metre-precision perfect hit for Bexhill

Thing is, if a thunderstorm hits that area and trundles N/NNE, it will miss Bexhill as it goes over the south downs to our North instead! Happens often.

Slighhhhttttlllyyyy further East for Bexhill please!

A 28c dewpoint seems much too high for this place in the world, even in a rain forest that would be high end! Surely the sign of an erroneous run. Not to mention 6,600j/kg CAPE is a high end figure in the states!

Haha blimey... Very intense, slow moving, back building MCS there, very different to the quick moving linear type that we are accustomed to! Would be an all night channel light show even for Sussex.

I comfort myself by thinking 'surely that isn't possible', because the highest dew point I've endured in this country is around 19.5c (July 2015), and that was stifling enough! 25c would be record smashing and probably not realistic thankfully. Also, it's just one ECM run!

25c dewpoints on the latest ECM run... Yeah no thanks!! You just know we wouldn't score any thunderstorms either to make it at least somewhat bearable...

Mad weather here; 17c, gale force winds and intermittent torrential rain!

Well, despite the fact I witnessed a few (and only a few!) distant flashes and rumbles courtesy of the Kent clipping cells, I was left feeling distinctly unsatisfied this evening; With the broad southerly flow, deep trough out west, Cold front advancing eastwards, and 850hPa temps touching 17c... I genuinely would've expected something better and certainly more widespread for southern and SE areas. Of course, I'm happy for Northern areas who have done really quite well today, and I don't want to bring down the mood with a lengthy moan. Just quite comical how paltry the offering has been today for the aforementioned areas. Always next time, I suppose!

Plenty of mid-level cloud spilling in from the South in Bexhill