ShinyDave
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Posts posted by ShinyDave
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3 hours ago, Earthshine said:
Heat haters would love it here. 18°C and pouring with rain!
Getting something of that here too, a couple of degrees warmer and the clouds seem to have no idea whether to drop the deluge or not but they're there blocking out the evil daystar.
It's coming home
It's coming
Weather's coming home...
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18 minutes ago, Stewart M said:
Wow this spell has been draining! In many ways it's worse than the July heatwave. I don't know why but it's seemed even hotter to me than the extreme heat of last month. Probably due to the protracted nature of this heatwave, maybe higher humidity, or maybe it's just because my already limited tolerance of heat is now at breaking point.
Roll on next week!
Both more prolonged and also a more westerly focus - certainly here in South Wales it has been every bit as bad as July was, but for longer.
I want to be super excited for the end of this but that would imply having feelings right now.
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1 hour ago, Snowycat said:
Just visited a few weather sites to see what is forecast for my area over the next few days and I see the early indications of rain, with or without thunderstorms, have all but disappeared. Zero rain now being forecast and at this rate I can see me losing many garden plants not to mention the continued worry of wildfire.
OOF yeah I just noticed my area is showing less of a rainfall prospect than before. Not none, but less, and in the circumstances not nearly enough.
The evil daystar seems to be muted after today but...
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5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
Yes I agree with the draining part.
I feel we’ve adapted to it though, once you experience a few weeks of warm weather, the body does adjust.
A drop back to 21c will feel positively chilly after this long hot spell, and anything south of 20c will feel cold.
As someone who doesn't adjust well to most sensory input (temperature included) as a result of being autistic, I must say I thought today would feel even worse than it did (although I've been entirely inside and downstairs). Got to the point where I think I'm dreading the thundery breakdown - again, sensory overload - more than I am the continuation of the heat?
I do feel quite excited about the prospect of feeling cold again though... can hug my (even more heat-sensitive) partner a lot more
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35 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
This must be one of the hottest, if not the hottest weekend that Premier League has been played- and perhaps professional football in general in England.
There are normally only two possible weekends really in August that could produce these sorts of temperatures during the season.
And of course this season started a bit earlier than usual. This would have been the first rather than second Premier League weekend in most seasons, but the season got bumped to prevent a major tournament being played in even worse conditions than this.
In 2003-4 the Premier League season started on 16 August, the then-record temperatures came the weekend before. There were Football League matches that weekend; Millwall-Wigan on 9 August 2003 (when multiple London stations, including Greenwich not far from The Den, recorded 36C) may have been the hottest, and this will likely not quite be topped today. The Community Shield the next day would have been the undisputed record-holder, but that was the Wembley reconstruction era so it was played in Cardiff.The Women's Euros took place last month of course, but there were no games on the 19th and the two games on the 18th were 8pm kickoffs in Rotherham and Manchester. Despite that, the former (recorded by UEFA as 35C) is still a contender for being the hottest professional football match ever played in England, at least at kickoff.
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Oh joy I'm at the "I'm terrified of the thunderstorm that ends this" stage of the heatwave.
But at least it would mean an end to this heatwave...
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On 09/08/2022 at 11:26, MAF said:
Stories like the one on BBC news does nothing to reassure me
a mild winter will benefit those worst hit by super high energy bills, even though i would love to see a 'proper' winter for a change here in the SE
This, tbh.
2022-23 would be the worst possible timing for anything like the kind of winter we saw in 2010-11 given the energy prices (and their geopolitical context!) - and that is the context for which I would hope for a mild winter this year. (A wet one, too. Significant infrastructure is crying out for a winter full of frontal rain.)
In a vacuum, I too would happily take a winter full of sharp cold and plenty of snow, especially if it meant avoiding dangerous Atlantic storms like Eunice (the single most terrifying buildup to a weather event I can ever remember).We don't live in a vacuum.
And so as @Sunny76 said, a cold winter (even without that context, but dramatically moreso with it) would have a death toll to dwarf this heat - and it's not like the death toll from this heat is small either, the provisional estimate for last month's heat storm was 1,000 excess deaths.
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1 hour ago, MattStoke said:
To be fair, the GFS did used to underestimate temperatures by a few degrees but is a lot more accurate since it’s upgrade.
Some still insist it estimates too high because the ECM and UKMO show lower. Models that have a known fault for underestimating temperatures under clear skies.
That's really interesting - could it be particularly evident at the moment because the drought conditions over most of England reduce how much heat the ground absorbs? That feels like the sort of thing that models could plausibly miss as a variable even if it has a material effect.
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...and, of course, "GFS goes too high" was the prevailing assumption for their long-range forecasts last month right up until they actually happened...
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1 hour ago, simshady said:
I want wind, I want rain, I want dreary dark stormy days and nights. I'm counting down the days. This summer has dragged on too long.
My preferences skew quieter than yours but wet and windy weather always feels so much better as a prospect when the alternative is... this.
Even ignoring the duration problem, this is going to be as bad at the peak as last month was for us because the peak is more westerly...
If this is the new summer normal, Lerwick is going to be a property market hotspot - pun not intended...
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9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
ICON (not the best of models) doesn’t really show a breakdown. Barely any rain and staying very warm.
Arpege has upped the temperature projections for the next few days. More in line with the GFS now.
I reckon areas around Bristol could challenge their all time records.
Don't think anywhere in SE Wales got past the 35C mark last month - models plural now to suggest that somewhere will this time. Certainly looks like this heatwave will have a more westerly peak than the last.
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1 hour ago, DeepSnow said:
Its 29.5C and too hot. The only saving grace is its a dry heat and not all humid and sticky. Finally finished work after a 30hr shift so sat at home with the fans on trying to keep cool.
Im not enjoying the prospect of the next 4 days being 32-34C here.
Just along the Severn Estuary here and dreading it too! Could not believe when some of the models suggested we'd get it about as bad as anywhere in the UK to be honest. Might genuinely end up being worse than last month was, and for longer.
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On 07/08/2022 at 19:57, JR319 said:
I bet the fire brigade hate this hot & dry weather, with increasing amounts of fires breaking out.
I hope we end up having a washout for having to put up with this.
More than a few critical pieces of infrastructure need one...
That's the bit I really don't get. I understand that many and perhaps most people actually like the evil daystar on some level and benefit as much from its presence as I, with penguin-like thermal preferences and bat-like lighting preferences, benefit from its absence. But when it starts adding disruption to an already disrupted infrastructure...
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The thing with the long-term model runs a couple of weeks ago was that they showed there was always the heat there to tap into, it was just a matter of if the setup would do so. And here we are.
Curious about this GFS run showing the Sunday maxima in the Severn Estuary area? Pretty sure that would be some local station records going if this chart's on the nose.
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47 minutes ago, Snowycat said:
I feel for you. My mums friend’s hubby is in heart failure using piped oxygen overnight and as needed during the day bless him. To add insult to injury he and his wife have caught COVID now and the only place they have been is to hospital appointments. I do fear for him next week with heart failure, COVID and having to cope with excessive heat. Rain wise, we done a little better in this part of the UK but everything is drying up like a crisp once again and I can fully understand your fears for wildfires. Our cul de sac of bungalows are surrounded on two sides by woods and farms - worrying indeed.
That sounds absolutely terrifying - sympathies.
Dreading this spell. Doesn't look like we'll be far short of the peak we reached last month, and it'll be for longer.
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7 hours ago, markyo said:
Going to be another very very tough week working coming up, got to go back to 2003 for such a miserable uncomfortable Summer i feel. Nobody i work with is looking forward to it, none of the staff at the clients i visit are either. Fingers crossed after this spell of crap, draining, uncomfortable weather is gone in roughly 7 days we can slowly look forward to Autumn...the best season of the year!!
2018 was pretty egregious for anyone of a remotely penguin disposition too, but while we've had more cooler relief spells than I remember that one having, even they haven't tended to be rainy!
Last month was genuinely a heat storm (and I think the levels of damage and disruption need that kind of analogy to understand), looks like this week will be more attritional. But we got off somewhat lightly this far west compared to the East Coast Main Line corridor's "is this an error?" levels... genuinely possible that for us in this location it's as bad as July ever was...-
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2 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:
Although I haven't looked, we must be entering hurricane season now. Ex-tropical storms really throw a spanner in the works and scupper any previously agreed outputs. FI draws in to more like 6 days rather than 10.
Indeed we're firmly into that, although as of right now nothing is forecast on that front. But certainly late summer and early autumn forecasting is greatly complicated by the possibility that a post-tropical cyclone will come along and change everything.
And even without one in play at the moment, early August forecasting looks quite ever dispersed enough.
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Brr-exit!
Thanks for that laugh @TomSE12!
Just started to rain here. Considering the hay-like texture of some of the grass around, I will very take that.
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39 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:
Greetings o' fellow heat haters.
What an absolutely beautiful day it is here! Grey, raining, maximum temp of 16' Celsius... Its wonderful! More please!
Not getting the rain here (and we need it) but almost as grey and cool... this is the British weather I know and love. As long as the thunder doesn't come this is about as good as weather gets for me from my sensory-sensitive point of view
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It's so nice to be able to actually use upstairs rooms again!
Just hope I don't need to use them to hide from thunder today. And then the weekend where I am looks manageably bad, especially if this week gave me a chance to acclimatise? Even a little?!?
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30 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:
Couldn't have been known when the contest was launched of course, but somewhat ironic in a way that the day *after* the contest period ended was the one that broke 40 °C for the first time ever!
Still, even up to Monday my guess (35.8 °C) proved a considerable understatement to say the least.
And to think so much of the model chat was "the models delaying it means it will never happen!"
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9 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:
Perfect conditions this morning. Why does anyone need it hotter?
The last two days have been absolutely ridiculous. The weather is not useable, everyone in the family has been grumpy.
Thankfully it's all over now, and we've got more normal and useable summer weather.
I can see why people would want bright clear blue skies - because most people aren't like me and sensitive enough to bright light that they wear tinted glasses indoors - but I cannot comprehend the idea of being actively adapted to temperatures well past 30C.
I'm sure the bafflement is mutual, especially for those of us who are genuinely cold lovers as well as heat haters! (I'm not truly a cold lover, but I am a ways-of-dealing-with-cold lover. Was delightful to be able to sleep under my weighted blanket last night!)
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Just now, Mapantz said:
The Met Office extremes has changed, it ditched the 39.9 at Scampton, and changed it to Coningsby 40.3
Does suggest the 39.9 was, as suspected, an automated ceiling of some kind. (The existence of which would be telling itself - 40C was meant to be an error, and is now a real number that can really happen.)
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It remains incredible to think that we can even have these very specific discussions about the validity of 40C readings plural in the UK. Even with the models saying it was in the realms of theoretical possibility a couple of weeks ago, and then settling on that possibility over the course of last week, to actually see real readings really starting with a 4 is just difficult to comprehend.
No wonder they're being so intently checked. 2003 was seen as symbolic enough at the time with a 1.4C leap over the 100F mark, but this is provisionally an even bigger chunk out of the record and into the kind of territory that millions want(ed) to dismiss as scaremongering. Dangerous business indeed to give those millions any possible hint that they might be right.
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Summer 2022 Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
We had rain, I think - at the very least we had cloud cover that should have produced some and the radar said it did, although I never heard any - but it's all gone properly bright and warm again. Less warm, and a bit less bright - there's actual cloud cover - but still with the feel of capital-S Summer whether you like it or (like me) not.
Hopefully this is a gradual off-ramp to an innocuous week ahead. But as someone who suffers from anxiety and sound sensitivity, I fear a thundery breakdown over the next 36 hours...