[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Para run stuck again?

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Just your standard jet stream.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Colder air approaching from the east.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Just doesn't look right. We've already seen some very bizarre charts this winter.

 

I'd expect heights to build just west or through the UK there too.

 Heights going on a holiday.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

18z not too bad actually. 

Heights moving North in the Atlantic and moving North-West out of Scandi towards Greenland while the “limpet low’ slowly fills over the UK.

The 18z does go on to produce this very, very strange looking chart, however.

Just doesn't look right. We've already seen some very bizarre charts this winter.

 

I'd expect heights to build just west or through the UK there too.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Another toasty looking strat in the latter stages of the run... Improvements in the past 12 hours, but we definitely need more!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Colder than average SSTs in that area maybe leading to less moderation of cold uppers out of eastern Canada/Greenland? 

Pretty sure SSTs were lower than average in similar areas last winter and helped any north west flow bring more wintry precipitation than normal.

I did get quite a few snow showers from the north westerlies in 17/18

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Something clearly going wrong with the 18z run roll out on Meteociel. Fragmented.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Just now, Johnp said:

What press release tomorrow?

I believe he is talking about the 10 day trend from the Met Office tomorrow.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Improvement on the GEFS 18z from what i can see.

Yeah I agree with the improvement. A nice average -7.5 850hpa for Newcastle here. 

 

It seems all of the runs have been getting stuck today. Particularly the FV3 & now GEFS.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Safe to say the GEFS set are a bit of a joke post 11th. That spread.

 

Scandinavian high pressure is consistent throughout so far however.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Oh yes!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Much shallower low this time around

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

A lot of retrogression going on here

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

35 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Why people get worked up over the gfs I will never know  now if the ecm shows the same then its time to worry    para already different 

Probably because it's the first one out lol

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Think I'm actually going to be sick looking at where that air is being drawn from.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

228 isn't looking too bad. Potential there.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

The less said about FV3 the better

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

5 hours ago, CanadaAl said:

 

Not quite disillusioned yet with yesterdays output. Baby steps in the right direction.

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

What were you expecting? A baby?

It's +360 so it'll be different tomorrow.

Here's the op at +360 to cheer you up-

anyway, someone spotted a stray isobar earlier on a model somewhere. Apparently could be worthy of an Express headline... 

Don't get me started. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Hopefully just a dodgy 18z run.

 

Still plenty of time to get cold in the favourable months.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Wasn't expecting this. Dire.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

We're all getting blown away at +234

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Up to 96 on the FV3 now... A continuation of the upgrades on the cards? 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Looks to be an improvement in the latter stages in the Atlantic.