GeordieX9v
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Posts posted by GeordieX9v
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2 hours ago, P-M said:
Well I kinda do but after the recent busts I'm being reserved.
Gorgeous morning up here in the NE with a lovely warm breeze every now and again. I'll check in later on the forecasts but fingers crossed for the cap to be eroded later
24C so far, it is absolutely unbearable as well, I'm dripping. I better be getting a storm out of this.
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Lightning off the coast of NE Scotland
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GFS has todays max for the Southampton area at 25/26Cm according to TheWeatherOutlook we've already reached that.
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5 minutes ago, P-M said:
Well I kinda do but after the recent busts I'm being reserved.
Gorgeous morning up here in the NE with a lovely warm breeze every now and again. I'll check in later on the forecasts but fingers crossed for the cap to be eroded later
Yeah it's very humid, I'm struggling already.
Plenty energy to tap into later if we can...
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15 minutes ago, P-M said:
A nice very warm morning here sun is really strong although the sky is a milky haze. Enough interest today to keep me checking in on the storm forecasts but not hopeful based on previous experience. Enjoy the heat / sun all and have a great weekend!
I fancy our chances this evening.
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Can still hear the cell in the north sea rumbling away
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Near constant thunder here in the last 15 minutes.
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Got a feeling this could be a long and stressful night for me.
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Looks like the GFS switches the flow more SE by Thursday.
Just noticed plenty cells popping around the Hull area right now.
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FWIW it is very cool here now I am about a mile away from the coast, if this easterly flow does continue it will really keep the temps down, especially up here anyway.
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Awaiting the GFS to spew out it's pub run.
Let's see something similar to the ICON/ECM
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2 minutes ago, matty007 said:
No, it certianly wasn't 24c here. It may have touched 21c for a short while but that's about it. Bear in mind that Cambridge is more congested and might have had slightly less cloud.
I couldn't agree more. Unless someone can tell me otherwise, I think this has the potential to be the most potent plume the UK has ever witnessed. Certainly on upper air temps alone. Many charts are still showing the 25c isothern making it to us, and nearly all, the 20c. I know for a fact the 25c isothern has never touched the UK, not even close. The 20c? Not sure, but doubt it. Now obviosuly upper air temps aren't everything and there are many factors, wind speed/direction, soil temps, sunshine amount etc etc.
But you have to say that if this plume does not threaten the June record then it has been spectacularly underwhelming and a massive underperformer. You should be hitting mid thirties at the very least.
I dare say that if this is the case, we may wait for a long long time before we see upper air like this again.We've had the 20C isotherm in a few times, I believe in 2003 and possibly more recently than that.
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Great uppers again, hopefully we will see some upgrades to the surface temperatures in the next 24 hours...
Where I am right now at this moment in time to say it is 'fresh' would be an understatement! It's actually quite nippy!
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6 minutes ago, matty007 said:
Ecm, Gem, Icon, Navgem and ARPEGE all in full agreement. Going on percentages, that ounumbers GFS by 84%.
I really would love to know why people are so fixated by the GFS and are totally oblivious or sceptical as to what all the others are showing.
I assume it's because it appears to be the most known, easiest to access and quite basic.
- That's the last I'm saying on the matter, so that things don't get way off topic.
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14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
The GEFS mean agrees with it.
It may do, but I believe in Winter at some point the GFS was showing us an easterly pattern, and had the backing of the GEFS and it never materialised. My point was mainly directed at people who only seem to care about the GFS and its output. UKMO & ECM look just fine to me. I still believe the surface temperatures being shown currently are just plain wrong.
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2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:
Looking at the gfs 6z temps for next week the hot spell may aswell be a non event. Ridiculously low 16 to 22C elsewhere while London only gets mid to high 20s. Paris and Northern France really going for it into the high 30s.
The GFS isn't the only weather model and it isn't always correct.
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I'm not taking any real notice of the surface temperatures shown at the minute. Simply because I don't believe they're correct. I think they're being significantly underdone.
We know the heat is coming, let's just not analyse every run in major detail.
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Think the majority of us would have snapped hands off for charts like this over a month ago when people frequently scoured 384 strat charts.
Not bad at all.
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Leaked express headline for tomorrow.
#sorrynotsorry
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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:
And what an odd shaped PV?
Looks a bit excited to me...
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Edging ever closer to -15 on some ens on the GFS
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Model output this morning.
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Not too shabby so far...
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Its marginal yes - marginal between siberian style cold or North Central Canadian style cold but not marginal between rain and snow.
Trying not to jinx it. I'm bouncing off the walls given my location
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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
11:15pm