[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Low not quite so round here.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Approaching the key area of the 18z now... will it be one of those.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I was just about say that...

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

GFS straight in the bin.

At least the FV3 has been mostly consistent with its output.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

14 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Same here. Despite some up and downs in the Hunt For Cold thread (which, to be fair, will happen with the wild swings of the models), people, mostly, been quite good at keeping toys in the prams.  

FV3 & UKMO have done a good job keeping them in so far. 

 

GFS 18z would've blown the shop down 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

360 on the FV3 reminds me of last weeks output from the GFS.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

GFS is on the drink at 300.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

We've been in far worse positions than this during the colder months. We're only in mid-November!

 

An improvement over the previous.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Do we have any verification stats on the GFS(p) yet?

I believe it is the best performing at the moment?

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

I'll bank that para run! As others have said what a win this could be. better heights and consistency

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Op looks a bit strange nearer the end. Certainly isn't over yet by any means.

Looks to be a few attempts at ridging.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

5 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Hi Evans. Would have been me, but you’re fine to use it  (to be fair, was a Google image of a pram store that was edited to put a Netweather spin on things )

Fingers crossed for some encouraging model outputs this evening for the cold and snow fans, otherwise I’d be seriously worried about how covered this thread gets with flying toys...

Edit: Just noticed the latest ICON run above. Quite a reasonable start, their.

Could edit the credits in for me as I can't seem to find an edit option. Hopefully it won't be needed as the ICON is a good start.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Not quite sure who the original creator of this was (see below) but I'm sure business has been booming recently.

Big 12z Ops to come hopefully in the right direction.

Image creater: DiagonalRedLine (Alex)

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Atlantic ridging on 6z

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

FV3 top of the verification atm... positives.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

I am still astounded people do not realise/remember the models chop and change frequently in the low res.

The next run could be another belter... We'll find out soon enough but I feel some may look very silly in a few hours.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

I'm still not concerned by the recent GFS & ECM yet.

Sorry to bring up the old favourite. "more runs needed"

Para run looked good and the GFS was an outlier.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look, thats the trough she's on about.

 

almost exactly as she had it - but you wouldnt rule out cold returning shortly after that would you?

 

Nah.

 

I've only really seen it from the ECM though. Unless I am completely missing something elsewhere. Possibly. It is quite late/early.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

That's some cold pool is that!

18z doesn't have the uppers anywhere near at the same timeframe

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

GFS ens almost all have negative uppers.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

+102 almost identical so far.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Would be great if everyone could get along.

 

I thought everyone would be over the moon with what we are seeing from the models.

 

Being born in mid 90s I don't have much memorable to shout about apart from 2009, 2010 & February 2018. 

 

Bring it on!

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

ECM isn't too shabby. It's not far off at all. You'd think it were showing SW winds with the reaction of some 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Exciting times.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Not bad at all. Thought I'd be the only one here on my allnighter! Looking goood!!!