Dbarb

It's now a nowcasting event. I wouldn't take much notice of model changes at this range but keep an eye on real time temps

Looking at the models it seems like alot of the Eastern areas will escape the high 30s and 40s. To us this might not actually be record breaking especially along the coastal areas? Or is this models overdoing the sea breeze?

I still think 40 is possible tomorrow it's now down to nowcasting. If today's a degree or two warmer then forecast for example

Believe it or not I think the UK night temperature record might actually go Sunday night Monday morning.

3000 people died in Paris alone on one night in 2003. We don't live in the Iberian peninsula. Also the war in Ukraine affects me personally as I'm of Ukrainian descent with family affected, however this will have to take center stage for people in the UK that's what's most important

The latest BBC weather forecast on the BBC litterally just said thousands will likely die

I don't get your point? This should absolutely be front page news considering the this will kill potentially thousands in the UK over a few days? Ukraine is an important issue and doesn't get enough coverage but this should be front page for us?

We need to be focusing on night temperatures not the daytime temperatures which grab the headlines. Yes it will probably hit 40 degrees but with low humidity honestly I don't think people will notice it as much when compared to past heatwaves. What I'm worried about is Monday night into Tuesday especially in the London area. The humidity will rise overnight and temperatures might not get much lower than 30 due to the heat Island affect. Thousands of people have the potential of death this night similar to France in 2003. The daytime temp is not what's going to kill.

How is the humidity relative to the temperatures on Monday Tuesday now? Because I remember when the 40 was being shown on the Sunday the humidity was low so actually not that dangerous relative to past records. Remember the heat index is what measures danger especially at night

If the 850 temps do verify and the consensus is they will be even more than 2019 then there's no doubt the record will be broken and I'm confident in 40 degrees as long as it's sunny. The uncertainty for me will be cloud cover which comes down to a nowcasting event, stuff like high level cloud building or a sea breeze. I wouldn't look at actual temperature forecasts from models as they won't be accurate considering they take into consideration alot like showers cloud and wind ect. Look at this from the bigger picture stuff like 850 temps, ground temperature sea surface temps and make a conclusion from that. Heck even today shows we can't predict day 1 accurately in nowcasting factors.

There is alot of stuff people stuff aren't mentioning in terms of the dangers this could bring. With how dry it's been and the low humidity I fear wildfires would be a big risk, possibly widespread. In addition good luck getting fresh food when all the chillers in supermarkets break down.

I'm not so sure this event will be remembered that much. It looked really promising at the start but it's kinda weakened alot. For some it's a good show but it's kinda weak and looks like it will miss London. The night is still ongoing however

Seems like thunderstorms are organising into separate storms. Will be tough for those that miss in-between. On the models doesn't it show storms strengthening over the south east and east Anglia?

Cloud tops of 40,000 are pretty standard for summer storms are they not? Remember a few years back a storm had really high tops can't remember how high

Looks like the whole of the south east and a good chunk of southern England are going to get storms tonight. Like a traditional squall line but of thunderstorms

Looks like the South East is virtually locked in especially since cells are building northward. Only thing left is can they maintain strength. I think the line will continue to build northward and we will see a massive line of storms

There's a chance the warning could go amber btw. The warning matrix is 3/4 in terms of impact. If confidence increases it will likely get upgraded

Whole village has been without power for over 9 hours

Calmed down now seemed to have peaked half hour ago, I know worse is yet to come?

Power has just gone here in Essex, powerful gusts can feel the whole roof lifting. What you get when living in a really exposed location

Wonder if we will get squally showers during the peak gusts here in East Anglia

You can always tell how bad a storm is gonna be by windspeed on the needles, fair to say this will be bad

Just phoned into work as required by my work under a red warning, what they said to me was check at 9 and see if I can make it in. I live in a rural area so I think I'm just not going to turn up, not worth the risk.

Definitely some rendering issues going on with that I'd ignore it

GFS going for 60s maximum gusts in my area, yet others are pushing into the 80s. Guess I'll wait till morning to check once again