[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Cloud 10 lol according to the 18z it’s a snow storm down here . Well that won’t happen

[Model banter and emotions]

Evening, been keeping Quiet for the last few weeks waiting , waiting and waiting to start posting the cold blocked charts . Well sorry there’s none to post . A horrible winter , not only because it didn’t produce the goods but it promised so much . Even the strat forecasts have been truly shocking ( usually they’re more reliable ) . As you’ve probably guessed that’s my big white towel well a truly thrown in ( earliest I’ve ever given in ) Have a nice summer / Autumn everyone and see you next winter maybe . Is there any point chasing winter anymore ??????? 
 

Cheers Everyone .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I know everyone has given up on this winter (including me) but the pub run offering some interest

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

It looks like we’re looking at a double warming up top - 

Day 5 it starts - 

 

Then by day 10 it starts to wane - 

 

Before starting to re emerge and take the vortex completely down between days 10 and 16 . That is quite a big SSW which could lead to a very interesting March .

PV completely split and destroyed . 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 topo just like at the end of the 18z . Strat looks good also

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy lucky = that’ll be the day

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Great chart -

But oh look no cold air to be seen

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy Honestly nick I’m sick to death of chasing this winter now . It doesn’t matter what state the NH in , no matter what it just doesn’t fall are way . Just can’t see it happening now . Even the GEFS have gone the wrong way in FI and the ECM ens hardly look great. So that’s up to the 20th and then we’re obviously fighting an even more up hill struggle with it being so late . Maybe next year

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

UKMO what have you done . It used to be the gold standard model up to day 5 . Big change from the 00z to the 12z at only day 4 . What a pile of poo . 
 

00z 

day 4 t108 

day 4 12z 

I give up with this winter . It just will not happen . Nothing goes are way. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex yep terrible 18z let’s just hope the ECM control is on the right lines . The ECM mean is pretty decent aswell for so far out . 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

It getting even better

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The ECM control is turning into a cracker .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

ECM control coming along nicely. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977 had some hope after this mornings runs but it’s gone the wrong way on the 12z s . I’m more interested what happens after anyway with the height rises to the NW . Ukv still has some snow down south Friday tho . Probably a mixed slush fest tho

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Here’s the UKMO snow chart at day 7

[Model banter and emotions]

 daz_4 story of the winters these days Daz . The only place over this side that’s done well this winter is scandi . Oh how I would love to have  a week of there weather

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Harsh Climate  MJB something along the lines of the gfs control would be nice  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole yep day 10 better Mike but it’s day 10 again . The models have really dangled the carrot big time this winter with all the favorable background signals , the Met updates etc etc . Really hope we get a decent spell last half of feb for the sake of everyone’s relentless chasing this winter . 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Another poor run from the ECM away from Scotland . Just more rain and mild for the rest of us . Depressing winter this has been . I’ll get jumped  on but I don’t care it’s poor for at least the next 10 days and that takes us to the 10th of feb . I’m usually positive and ramp away but this just isn’t going to happen this year .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

@Daniel* @Harsh Climate fair play it did end well . Maybe I’m just fed up with this winter because with all the great signals and hype it’s been a proper let down . Hopefully EC is on the right lines . My only problem is pressure is to high to the south And the lows will slide to far north .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

@Harsh Climate if that’s a good chart to you then you’re very easy to please . 192 and 216 are not great , for Scotland maybe . But it’s just wishy washie cold all very . Don’t take this the wrong way by the way I’m just saying how it is . 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

@northwestsnow - yep really poor output . Even in FI there’s not a lot to shout about . Don’t even look at the gem it’s horrible. Away from the favored spots up north I can’t see anything noticeable uk wide as in a decent cold spell . It will no doubt come towards the back end of feb and March and we’re be all screaming 4 5 weeks earlier

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Nice run from the gfs 12z it’s a similar re run of the cold spell we just had lol . Let’s hope this one turns out snowier

@AO-  it collapsed exactly as the block did a few weeks ago as well . Let’s hope that’s not what we get . 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Let’s hope this starts gathering some real pace . Another run more blocking to the NE .

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Mmmmmm ECM day 10 raises my other brow