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Good afternoon, Even though cold is far away, another post from me before my break untill next winter. What strikes me lately with EC (I dont pay attention to GFS atm) is that the evening runs seem more settled/colder than the morning runs. It shows to me that forecast reliability is very low. Of course it's the season of transition where weather types can follow eachother quickly, but it wasn't that "unreliable" in the past. Anyone the same impression?

Good Morning, EC the complete opposite of yesterdays 12z. The operational is an outlier in the EPS. A cold couple of days possibly from next weekend onwards. Nice weather if you ask me. The bad thing is that nature is already ahead and "winter" would mean a destruction of everything just in bloom.

Dennis I wouldn't be too excited about a blocking scenario as it is too far east. In fact it is a block, but in the wrong place with the wrong history. Even with a retrogression scenario of the Russian/European hp it will not deliver. If we want anything close to substantial cold, we need a pressure rise West of Norway followed by tilting to the East. Of course in March a northerly can deliver plenty of snow showers, but we (I) need more than that. The tpv is just too strong and that makes it an odd winter which was forecasted to have the highest possibility of cold weather/a blocked pattern in February. Well, the opposite is true with the warmest February on record (also in Holland). Plenty of lights are/were green but the cold in Western Europe and Britain were hard to find. The winter of missed opportunities.

minus10 EC00 and GFS06 not so different at day ten. Shape of the through is better on GFS than on EC, but those are details at that time frame. If it is to be a trend, then later in March an interesting pattern can come to existence. Maybe the Polar high is coming into play this time. Two months late, but I like Polar air flow any time of year.

Good Morning, Could be interesting for England if EC verifies. EC as a whole quite interesting with a meridional pattern setting up at the end. Euro block with a slight possibility of expansion towards Svalbard. Far FI of course, but a huge difference between EC and GFS at day 10.

Dennis It will be hard I guess, but not impossible as the uppers at 1,5 km are "only" -4. In intense showers it should be possible. But the wind direction is Southwest. What is the sst near the coast?

Good morning, Nothing wintry or springlike in either EC or GFS. After a few days of a chillier wind direction then a number of days with Southwesterlies follow under the influence of the pv expanding South (note the certainty). After that there is a lot of scatter in the wind direction. But there is a great possibility of a flow between north and east, albeit that the chance has decreased since last night.

LRD Still quite a strong tp vortex over Canada/Greenland given the forecast that it was a backloaded winter. GFS is more reliable atm than EC, I suppose.

LRD I think that is congruent with the season. Small changes in course van have an immense effect. If you take March 2013 as an example 6 and 7 March were warmest in records whereas the 11th saw snow and an ice day. I think the volatility of the atmosphere increases and therefore the reliability is louter than average. So I agree with you, but it is to soon to draw a conclusion.

daz_4 True, but what may be more important is the disappearing of the Iberian high and the rain that finally hits Spain. Over 100 mm in the next two weeks according to GFS. It is not the first run with this amount of precipitation.

LRD Good afternoon, What looks unconvincing? Please tell, because the season approaches in which changes appear quickly from one day to the next. The GFS is not a very odd calculation. I suppose the scatter becomes greater as the chaos of the atmosphere is increasing.

Dennis Good Morning, Isn't that the sign of the final warming Dennis? It often occurs in March/april. Meanwhile EC is not very interested in a blocking scenario (EPS nothing more than average after week 1). GFS much better and seems spot on lately when it comes to the synoptic pattern (change). Hopefully the blocked pattern leads to sunny conditions regardless if it's cold or not. I prefer dry conditions.

northwestsnow Good Morning, lol, Scandinavia somehow hit the jackpot this winter (sort if). The Netherlands is a whole different story Edit: to illustrate with the sea ice extent of the Baltic sea compared to previous years.

Good evening. Looks like the continents (far east) are rather cold(ish) and inbetween it is a nightmare. Wrong side of the ocean, that's for sure. Wonder what the weather is like in Vancouver atm. This winter van be written of. Days are getting longer, so a dry period would be nice. But the latest runs are getting wetter. I'm not sure what the reliable forecast horizon is at the moment, but models have swapped a lot the past few days with GFS seemingly top of the bunch. Not a good sign as it was the worst synoptically.

Good Morning, A quick glance at the charts shows that we can almost write this winter off. Despite all the potential, the delivery failed really. I would like to give credit to the posters that put their heads out in discussing the background drivers. It is really informative even though perhaps not always spot on. Thank you for that. Here is the EPS of this morning. Not really promising I suppose. Above average, but fortunately not very wet. A serious downgrade since two days ago.