ICE COLD

Hi Crewe Them long range models are terrible . I know most winters are mild and wet but even if it is going to be a cold winter or cold winter month then long range models would never pick it up this far out . When was the last time a long range model picked out cold spell /cold month and got it right . I can't remember one . We struggle to predict the weather 7 days out let alone months in advance . So everyone chill it's only just November . Cold spells can just come out of nowhere and usually do . Cheers

It's because on this mornings run it shows -10 850s over the uk with major blizzards on days 6,7,8,9 and 10 .

Evening All Its certainly looking very interesting as we head towards November . Probley the best it's looked for quite a few years . Not a bad Set of ens there , if it's cool / cold your looking for .

And now the ecm gives us Winds from the north .

I wouldn't say the odds are favouring warmth next week . It's only been 2 GFS op runs . It will probley be completely different on the 12 z run . This is the GFS Lol

The op right at top of the ensembles again . Just look at the spread .

Evening All Been following this thread since march 2013 , when be last had a proper cold spell . Since then we have not had any really notable cold and snowy spells . Let's hope this winter is a lot more winter like than the last few . Got to say I love Mr Murrs posts and can't wait for him to start posting ready for winter . In fact there is a lot of very informative members on here so keep it up . As booferking pointed out earlier the GFS ensembles keep showing blocky runs towards the later time frames , hopefully these starting showing in the operational runs and don't stay in la la land . Cheers .