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BlackburnChris

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Everything posted by BlackburnChris

  1. BlackburnChris
    To be fair there's a couple of ensemble members that go even colder than the OP and the mean is -5 or below @850 at the time frame the Op goes really Cold. A few mild blips to get there but staying on the Cold side looks the form horse at the moment ..
  2. BlackburnChris
    The Low at +168 is deffinatly Sliding , That will drag some Cold air South again .
  3. BlackburnChris
    Yes looks like it could be quite heavy over NW Manchester / Lancashire before heading into the Midlands .
  4. BlackburnChris
    Are you drunk tonight ?? you seem extra excited haha .... I cant work out from that chart whats sending the low SE , looks like pv is in it's usual spot
  5. BlackburnChris
    Starting to wonder if a Plane has caught fire at Liverpool Airport. Now showing 50 deg. Something must be heating it up..
  6. BlackburnChris
    Nip down to Liverpool, the SSW causing a heatwave..
  7. BlackburnChris
    Often get's corrected Southwards and barely reaches the South Coast. Obviously still a week away so may not even be there by then.
  8. BlackburnChris
    Sorry , the chart didnt come up on my laptop , I thought you were talking about last winter .
  9. BlackburnChris
    But that would have been the old GFS (P) which is now the current GFS . You cant really compare stats on old upgrades ..
  10. BlackburnChris
    Also worth noticing the showers often make it all the way across to the West which often doesn't show on the models until the day.
  11. BlackburnChris
    La Nina normally means the Coldest period for the UK is normally early winter ... Doesn't always go to plan though so good luck with your prediction .
  12. BlackburnChris
    xcweather is also good for that , as it is based on raw gfs ..
  13. BlackburnChris
    Looks like something is trying to build in again , If we do get the Plume next week, without the North Sea Influence this time , temps are likely to be higher , going on the 6z setup , Id go 30deg UK wide and topping Mid 30's Midlands South ... A Week to go yet , but not that far in FI with it starting around +144 . The Chart above shows a nice long draw from the South ...
  14. BlackburnChris
    I'll go with the Gravesend one, sorry Paul .
  15. BlackburnChris
    Thats why im thinking places in the West , and further North will do rather well as further away from any onshore breeze .
  16. BlackburnChris
    39.2 Gravesend -Friday 28th June 36.3 Manchester -Friday 28th June
  17. BlackburnChris
    Cant remember a time In my lifetime , that I have seen 850's like that , can only ever remember 20c 850's clipping SE . For places like Manchester that are fairly sheltered , temp records will likely be broken for areas in Northern England
  18. BlackburnChris
    Well on all tonights Models , looks like the UK will hit over 30deg widely by Mid week , with the possibility of records being broken in the Se
  19. BlackburnChris
    Nice Plume building in towards the end of the GFS run would be a scorcher if it came off .
  20. BlackburnChris
    Live in quite a high area (250m asl) but not convinced.....
  21. BlackburnChris
    I love Cold and Snow , but to be honest it's been lovely , sitting in pub garden with kids having a bbq yesterday. Park with kids elc. Spring is a lovely time of year . Mind you it's Freezing now it's after dark
  22. BlackburnChris
    When Low Pressure undercuts it .
  23. BlackburnChris
    Personally think March will be Colder than average simply by law of averages, the p/v will calm down by March (always does) and the High over the uk then morel likely to spread North with the remaining energy in the Atlantic moving SE undercutting the High.
  24. BlackburnChris
    It won't even reach Leicester in the end lol . Feel sorry for shakey as I was born in Leicester , and my family have kept me updated on the lack of Snow .
  25. BlackburnChris
    I hope Winter starts in November next Winter to make up for this Winter
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