ZK099

Worth remembering that after an SSW, it takes a couple of weeks for the tropospheric effects to take hold, as we all know. Certainly in Feb 2018, if I recall correctly it was around 2 weeks and model output only became really consistently interesting in the week before the SSW as NWP began to process what was happening. If we're saying end of December/early Jan for the warming, then we would be hoping for some really interesting output showing at around Christmas time. Until then it's best to be patient regarding the SSW.

Just thought I'd share this. Quite pertinent

What do you think will 'happen'?

One thing I'm noticing this year is a distinct lack of a Canadian and Greenland PV in modelling. Normally the vortex is raging in those regions in particular, and I saw an old chart I had saved from last year and the difference is astounding. One thing that's for sure is the NH atmosphere is behaving strangely this year, ever since that SSW...

If you ever feel useless just remember the CFS runs four times a day...

For what it's worth I think winter 2018/19 will be severely cold. It's just a feeling really, but the last time we had solar output this low we had Feb 2009, 2009/10, then Nov/Dec 2010. Just food for thought and nothing guaranteed as usual...

You based in Newcastle? Coming down thick here now.

Unreal mate

It'll take a miracle for my 6th form to be called off tomorrow but I'm hoping for one! Literally everywhere else is closed. My car might struggle in the deep snow tomorrow.

Amazing. Similarly I'll never forget the one on the Town Moor in Newcastle earlier. Spectacular, honestly. Videos don't do it justice. Snapchat-13108301.mp4

Try and attach it using the attachment button that says 'click to choose files'

Thoughts on how far north that low will come? It'd most likely all be snow if it arrived up here. ECM keeps the cold for the foreseeable FWIW.

Back after a long day lads. Morning was disappointing and despite every other bloody school in the county being shut, my 6th form was open- it's renowned for never closing so that was expected. Had a notice at around 10am that last period was cancelled and we were to head home at 2:40pm. Interesting for me because the teachers kept stressing to leave early and our school is known for NEVER closing due to snow. I thought that was quite fishy. I personally think the Met Office, via the council, notified the school to close early because they knew what was coming. At around 11am we had some heavy snow along with thunder. Again at 3pm, very heavy snow with thunder and lightning. Visibility hugely reduced and it was a struggle to drive. Arrived at the Town Moor in Newcastle to sledge with friends and couldn't see anything. Absolute whiteout, looked like thick fog. We actually couldn't find the hill it was that heavy. Eventually did, after transversing 1.5ft drifts. At the top of the hill, I've never experienced anything like it. You could see the dark shower clouds roll in from the east. Bitter winds, drifting snow, exceptionally heavy snowfall. Absolutely unbelievable. Felt like I was in the Arctic. Temperature was probably -5 and windchill must have been well below -10. I was on my phone so took my gloves off and had to nearly hang up my hands were that cold. Savour this lads because these low 500 thicknesses are extremely rare. An unbelievable experience for me and being 18, that was the best fall of snow I have ever seen. Trumped what I can remember of 2010 and 2013.

Same in Gosforth

This is annoying me now. This polystyrene 'snow' just refusing to accumulate on car surfaces etc. Want big fat flakes ASAP...

The Weather Channel has this for us...

Persistent, but light snow in Newcastle. Maybe 2cm added since the afternoon. Nothing much in terms of intensity at the moment. Hopefully that feature hits at around 7ish and dumps a good few inches.

Was caught in that squall that hit Newcastle. Very heavy, dusted areas that had melted within minutes. Everything frozen over outside with icicles forming. Temperature probably won't rise above freezing for a fairly long period now. Hopefully convection ramps up.

This snow we're currently receiving had quite a long sea track from Norway and thus won't be that dry and powdery. From tomorrow afternoon onwards it should be more like that rather than wet.

I think it'll follow the same path this initial band took

The main band is looking like it will be extremely heavy. If it falls from 6am onwards there will be chaos on the roads.

I'd expect everyone here to have snow by morning. In Newcastle it's currently snowing moderately, and it looks like the more intense band is on course for a direct hit too. Looking forward to tomorrow morning.

Yep, that main band is very intense and this first band should give us a nice taster

This area could dump an inch or two. Prepare for impact lads!

First area of snowfall just making landfall with the North East. Should be affecting a few of us within half an hour. Second, intense area of snow looks to be further North. Newcastle looks more in the firing area now.