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ZK099

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Everything posted by ZK099

  1. ZK099
    I actually had a feeling the 18z would have some support in terms of snowfall amounts
  2. ZK099
    Great 18z for us. If a Polar/Siberian Low develops in that unstable Easterly/North Easterly flow we could get north of 8inches in one fall, easily. Add that to the convective snowfall amounts and we're looking at potentially very significant totals.
  3. ZK099
    Yep, I never said whether the warming would or wouldn't enhance/dilute the cold spell. I just said that the models may not have a good handle on the effects of it- they were all over the place after the initial SSW. @Catacol and @chionomaniac (or one of the two ?) mentioned that they thought the secondary warming would in fact increase the chances of a prolonged cold spell. They have been spot on regarding this so far, therefore I'm inclined to accept what they're saying.
  4. ZK099
    Deleted
  5. ZK099
    Right, I've had enough. Everyone, do you remember when the SSW happened? Yes? And the models were all over the bloody shop? Yes? Well, there's been another warming of the stratosphere. This could, maybe, possibly be why the models are a tad confused. Understand? Hahaha maybe slightly condescending but if you wanna act like children you're gonna end up being treated like one ?
  6. ZK099
    To sum the 6z and 12z runs up, the high has been modelled further south. This means pressure is higher in the north, resulting in less instability and thus less snowfall. Like I said earlier, we'll need to see the high being modelled further north to allow the instability and colder uppers to hit the UK directly. If this does happen, it'll be our coldest and most likely snowiest weather since 2010. If not, the coldest and snowiest weather will go to France and we'll be cold and mostly dry.
  7. ZK099
    Looks like we'll get an early Greenland high here. Doesn't look like a sustained easterly.
  8. ZK099
    GFS 6z Scandi High a touch further North at T96 and the low over the Mediterranean also slightly further North. Good.
  9. ZK099
    We need the Scandi high to be modelled further north today. Here's hoping
  10. ZK099
    High does in fact appear to be further North on the GFS 6z
  11. ZK099
    That said the Canadian vortex looks better orientated to allow better height rises to the North. Should be an interesting run.
  12. ZK099
    Early doors but the 6z looks even further south... We'll see anyway. May be a premature judgement.
  13. ZK099
    GFS 18z buries North Eastern England with heavy lake effect snowfall. Looking increasingly likely that we'll be amongst the hardest hit from this cold spell.
  14. ZK099
    So... What's the difference?
  15. ZK099
    Yes, especially the second warming over Hudson Bay. That only occurred two days ago so the models are still playing catch up. Record SSW with favourable split, favourable huge MJO pulse, low solar output. Literally perfect for a proper Scandinavian high which is what we're seeing being modelled
  16. ZK099
    Mass respect to you in terms of your forecasting of this cold spell. You and @Catacol kept the faith even when the models hadn't latched onto the SSW and provided exceptional insight about the background signals. You've called this one brilliantly.
  17. ZK099
    Don't worry about what the models say regarding snow depths. As others have said, they don't know the convection rates. If the ECM verifies you could expect well over a foot for Eastern areas and 10cm+ widely in the south/south east. This is ignoring any low pressure systems that head north from Iberia
  18. ZK099
    Stunning charts but on a side note how bad has the ECM been! Usually considered top dog but it's been flip flopping all over the place with this cold spell. ICON stayed consistent and has impressed me, GFS also far more consistent than usual. Wonder what the ECM's been smoking this year
  19. ZK099
    Could that -24C air actually make it to the North Sea...
  20. ZK099
    GFS- Cold and very snowy UKMO- Cold and snowy GEM/ICON/JMA- Cold, snowy easterlies ECM- Cold, undoubtedly snowy and also the potential for fantastic longevity We are a go!
  21. ZK099
    Well I think everyone is pretty confident on the synoptic pattern that is about to evolve. The only question is where the high will sit. If the ECM corrects northwards on the next two/three runs I think we can get excited
  22. ZK099
    I know we always say this but due to the high impact this cold spell could have and the fact we're less than a week out, this afternoon's ECM is huge- one of the most important I can think of. If it sings from the GFS hymn sheet, we can be fairly confident of the way this pattern will evolve and if we really will get snowmaggedon! I for one am nervous...
  23. ZK099
    0z running. Looking good at T9 hours
  24. ZK099
    @Daniel Smith. Quality analysis from you recently mate. You make it quite easy to understand the little details on the models. Appreciate it mate
  25. ZK099
    Why do you say that?
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