[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

Yep, looks like Durham is a good spot to be in. Newcastle might get clipped by its northern flank. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

I just really can't be arsed with school tomorrow and I'm hoping for some slow-moving traffic in the morning. Hopefully that feature smashes us tonight. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

Listen. There will be no sleet. Any precipitation will be snow, make no mistake about that. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

18, big up the youth

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

6 minutes ago, Nice Ice Babe said:

Just checked on bbc for my area. They are now showing sleet tomorrow.....

Be very cautious with apps. They're more fickle than Arsenal fans ?. Anything that falls from the sky in the North East from now until Saturday at the very least, will be snow. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

8 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Class.

Are we still looking on course for a direct hit from the trough behind the polar low tomorrow? And how many cm’s are we talking from tomorrow morning’s event?

Sort of a direct hit. Depends where you live in the North East. Warning from Newcastle down past Sheffield. Met are saying 5-10cm in a few hours. Personally I think 10-15cm is very possible. After the trough the convective airstream kicks in and we could be looking at another 10cm throughout the day. On Wednesday and Thursday definitely the potential for around 1ft of snow to fall, hence the Met Office having a very high Amber warning, which has the potential to turn Red for some areas once details are firmed up. A few kinks showing in the flow from Wednesday onwards, a very unstable airstream. More troughs are likely to pop up at short notice. All in all, by Friday I'm hoping for at least a foot of lying snow. 

None of this is guaranteed, of course.  

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

Just now, Snowmaggedon said:

Is the east coast as a whole still looking good for convection aside from the Amber warning areas?

Absolutely. Prime position. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

Just now, tynevalleysnow said:

From 6am Wednesday- 6pm Thursday 

Could very well be a Red Warning. Once they have the path of snowfall nailed it will become 'Very Likely' in theory. That would merit a Red Warning. Massive disruption. Looking forward to it hahaha

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

27 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

Could go red yet!

Is this tonight's warning or Wednesday's? 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

Lads. This is the stable air. I've had snow showers all day, nothing accumulating but this is the stable air. Imagine tomorrow when the lower heights and temperatures come in. This snowfall today is a lot more than forecast in terms of convection. Got a feeling that a lot more of you will be happier tomorrow once the North Sea fully activates. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

Snowfall in Newcastle. So it begins. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

Aperge shows the low tracking over us. I actually find Aperge is the best short range high resolution model. Hopefully it has this spot on. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

1 hour ago, garylaverick said:

GFS is going for 5mm/hr rainfall rate for those who take the direct hit, which could be as much as 10-15cm per hour for 3 or so hours.

No, that would be very extreme. Looking at maybe 5-7cm per hour. At the end of Tuesday, I'm hoping for at least 15cm if lying snow, more with drifts. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

How do you lot think Newcastle NE3 will fare? I'm very hopeful about the entire north east. Prime spot for lake effect snowfall from these synoptics. 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

So....I take it ICON is once again the darling model?

 

Picked up on the easterly first to be fair... 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

There is a huge thing that people are completely ignoring in my opinion. As per @chionomaniac, it will be a very painful recovery for the PV after it was ravaged by the SSW. So even if the low pressure system causes a milder interlude, the atmosphere if primed for further northern blocking. This is evident in forecasts from the Met Office who are unusually bullish and when they are bullish, we should take note. At some point, hopefully, we should see renewed blocking over Greenland or Scandi.

Obviously this isn't guaranteed and we could usher in mild southwesterlies for the rest of the winter and if we do, you know what? That's life. I'm 18 and the only real cold spells I've seen are 09, 10 and March 2013. I'm desperate for one but it is what it is. If this cold spell does end (after we're possibly dumped with multiple feet of snow) then go back to your lives and enjoy everything else instead! 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

3 hours ago, Snowmaggedon said:

My Dad lands at Newcastle Airport from Dubai next Saturday morning. What's the chances of air travel being disrupted? 

Very high

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

People predicting the melting of snow that hasn't fallen and the breakdown of a cold spell that hasn't started. 

Only on Netweather!

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

I am 90m asl, however altitude won't affect your snow chances this time... however, higher ground always gets more snow regardless most of the time

Won't affect snow chances whatsoever. But it could have a very slight impact on accumulations. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

58 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

With this memorable cold spell nearly upon us...

1. would be nice to know peoples locations?

2. If you use twitter, would be great to follow everyone.

3. Take pictures, plenty pictures for everyone to see... More so to be smug and let the people who don't see snow look at what they missing lol. (less than 5% of population as it stands)

4. Obviously some people prefer to be more private on here, so no worries for those who want that 

My location: Newton Aycliffe

Twitter: @NrthEastWeather

Newcastle mate, 130m altitude. Expecting 30cm here by next weekend, hopefully. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

30 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Surely we would be looking at school/work closures if this came off? It just carries on upgrading, unbelievable!

There is a 100% chance there will be school closures in my opinion. Maybe schools sending students home early when snow doesn't stop during the day. Burst pipes an issue. The Eastern half of the country will grind to a halt by Friday IF the models have this nailed. Let's see what the 18z GFS has to say.

I'm at 6th Form and my school never closes. Not even in 2010. However, I doubt I'll be at school every day next week. Few options 1) Exceptional snowfall, which could eclipse 2010, forces them to close. 2) Teachers will be snowed in. They'll be forced to close. 3) Burst pipe. Fair chance with the severe cold. 4) If none of those occur, our Mercedes Benz can barely move in half a cm. With half a foot in won't leave the driveway. Chaos next week lads, hopefully. Enjoy it.

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

We really will be looking at over 1ft of level snow by Friday next week if the models have this nailed now. Huge amounts of lake effect snowfall. From Tuesday onwards, the mornings will be chaos by the looks of it. Enjoy the school run 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Another important note- IGNORE THE BREAKDOWNS IN FI. Literally days ago the models were showing us that the North might miss out on snowfall due to the high being too far south. Today, the ECM modelled Newcastle to recieve 20 inches. The models do not have the next few days nailed on, forget the next few weeks.

Moreover, cold air and Scandi highs are very difficult to shift and the GFS is being overly progressive. If we do get a clean retrogression to Greenland, we're in this for the long haul. 

Let's say we do have a breakdown. As I alluded to earlier, I've no doubt more HLB will develop as we head into March. The atmosphere is just primed for it at the moment. 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

@Mucka mentioned he saw a new Scandi high forming in GFS 12z FI. I would not be surprised whatsoever. A record SSW followed by a secondary Canadian warming has well and truly smashed the Polar Vortex to pieces and it'll be a long, hard recovery for it. The atmosphere will be primed for height rises in Greenland and Scandinavia well into March. I have a feeling winter will show its hand well into the depths of March... It takes one look at long range temperature anomalies to see this. 

[Far north and northeast of England - regional chat]

1 hour ago, Snowmaggedon said:

I work in the civil service would love a snow day or two next week. But supposedly in the civil service if you’re place of work is within 60 minutes waking distance you are meant to walk to work! Sod that! Do we reckon it could be as disruptive and severe as 2008/09, 2009/10?

Some of the modelled uppers are projected to be lower than 08/09/10. Could well have more snowfall. All conjecture at this point tho. If the high sets up favourably, we could well have the most severe winter weather since the 80s/90s. No way to know at this point tho. By Monday we'll know for sure where the high is positioned and we'll be able to make better predictions. For what it's worth I don't think winter will be done with us until deep into March...