Yorkshirepudding
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Posts posted by Yorkshirepudding
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3 minutes ago, Dexter said:
It has been sinking Southwards on each GFS run today and now it is shallower, the worst of the predicted wind gusts have been watered down. If it keeps shifting South it could miss us altogether and give the mids another pasting!
True only time will tell. Still along way out yet?
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26 minutes ago, Dexter said:
This week is shaping up to be excellent. Chance of significant snow showers throughout and if that low keeps shifting South, potential for a significant spell of snow midweek or is that getting a bit carried away?
Not at all D it's all about that low. ?
Its wether or not we just get snow on the leading edge and then turns to rain for a period before the cold air comes back giving snow and sleet showers again. Or wether it remains as snow at it passes. With the low lower than lastnight we have a better chance of this. But at the moment these models have it flying round like a kite lol. But it's definitely looking better and location has already upgraded twice today.
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29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Would it be fair to say these southerly corrections if they happen will mean the colder air swings in quicker thurs..
I would say so yes also creating more chance of the rain turning to snow as colder air will be dragged deeper.
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11 minutes ago, pip22 said:
I got a nasty gut feeling the Low will stay to the north of us sadly.
If the models shifts the low further south tonight I'll be happier. Fingers and toes crossed.
The further south the low the more quicker the cold get back.
We have already had a slight upgrade as the low as shifted south slightly. The more south the more chance of snow on the leading edge on Wednesday night/ Thursday and yes you are correct the faster it goes back cold as it passes through. Still an interesting 24-48hours to come predicting the exact track.
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4 minutes ago, doctordunc said:
Showing snow most of the day for tomorrow on the BBC. Got to drive to Wetherby and back (from near Skipton) - is it likely to be okay?
I'm from near Skipton. I believe the heavy shower come later tomorrow evening. However if we get streamers which is always possible travel could be tricky.
We still need to keep an eye on the system coming through Wednesday night/Thursday still chance for upgrades is all about the low the lower it is the more cold gets dragged down to us the more chance for snow on at least the leading edge. Of course it could go the other way but it's worth noting.
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51 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:
If any warning are going to be issued it will be sometime today.. I'm starting to feel a bit like you if I'm honest.
I would of thought with icy stretches and snow increasingly to lower levels. I would expect to see warnings for at least slippery surfaces and Ice but I don't really know why they haven't yet..
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2 hours ago, cheshire snow said:
Just back from a conference call at work and the latest for the Manchester area is a s follows
Tomorrow showers are expected to turn increasingly to snow from tomorrow afternoon and the over night period into Wednesday morning.
The Wednesday night into Thursday storm is still open to question due to the uncertainty of the track but current forecast is for Heavy snow over the Pennines with the
snow line around 200m (but again must stress very much uncertainty)on the track of the low,not much detail on Thursday into Friday but suggestions of sleet and snow showers
continuing.
Like to point out this is genuine and not hope casting and obviously subject to change
Enjoy your day
C.S
Sound a lot like my forecast C.S ?
The lower the low the more it drags colder air to bring us increasing into play. I live on the Pennines above 200m so we will see. But like I said I suspect the lower the low the better for us. Saturday Night it went across southern UK, Sunday night it's to the North across Scotland who the hell knows what exactly it's going to do because the weather forecasters obviously don't that's who much it changed in 24hours. That's why they're reluctant to do a detailed televised weather forcast after tomorrow. Anything is still in the mix. One thing Is for certain in my view a lot of us are going to increasingly get her by heavy showers today/Tomorrow increasingly turning to snow with some potential for accumulations where the bands of shower are more organised and frequent.
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17 minutes ago, dallas said:
Cheers,
N/W normally updates by about 20 mins after the GFS is complete
I still expect a lot of change. Unless I get lucky and all the bands of showers link together and continue rolling in over head. I don't think I'll get what that update shows.Lol. Although it has happened before with a chain of showers but that was from easterlies maybe 2010.
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I had a very similar forcast. And my location is set to the nearest town so around 100-150. I live on the moors surrounding it possibly more like 200-250. And I live near ilkley.
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2 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:
Yes my locations forcast from the BBC says heavy snow all day Tuesday.
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7 minutes ago, dallas said:
Anybody else's local forecast not updating?
Yes my locations forcast from the BBC says heavy snow all day Tuesday.
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Same for my location. It will all be where the more organised bands of showers come in to see who gets what. Wednesday night/ Thursday could still be interesting if the low goes slightly lower we could be in for some percipient snow on top of what we get Tuesday. It just depends on if it turns back milder for a short time as it passes before turning back colder. That's what we will need to watch very carefully. Because I feel we may be in with a little surprise. Obviously the model could go the other way but I feel if it stays on the path it is we should do ok Tuesday if I goes a little south again it will only get better for us especially for Thursday. Small changes can result in 1-200 miles.
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2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:
You enjoy your Huge amount of snow this winter @More Snow And we shall enjoy our warm spring and hot summers while you are all deluged with rain ' winds and grey sky' Oh and the odd look at the temp being above 17c or kicking it to 19c . when we are bathing down here in 28c /31c ' Not being nasty , just stating a fact that we do better down here for at least 6 months while you Northerners get a Crap Spring and Summer .
Then you have us Folk slap bang in the middle of the UK who doesn't have a clue what we are going to get.?
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Just seen the latest forcast and all they're saying is watch this space for Tuesday - Thursday. Be prepared for a lot of slight changes on the Models. Yesterday the weather system on Wednesday/Thursday went through the south now it's more towards Scotland. It wouldn't surprise me if it ended up going through the middle. A lot can change in 24hours.
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20 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
As it stands only Scotland will see snow from that low. Before and after though plenty of wintry showers for the region.
You are correct Day 10 the model that showed the Snow further south was a little earlier. Country files Weather forcast didn't have a clue exactly where either. Yesterday the whole weather system moved across the whole of the south of the UK turning to Snow in the midlands and not actually reaching northern parts but Just goes to show how much it's changes within a short period of time. like I said tomorrow will be clearer?.
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3 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:
BBC don't seem to have a clue what's going on.
North West forecast - wet and windy
National Forecast - sleet and snow in the North West
Hedging their bets?
The problem is no one knows exactly where this low will be once the weather System tonight/tomorrow moves through is going to be.
Anything north of Manchester and northern parts of wales away from the coasts could see heavy showers late Monday into Tuesday increasing turning to snow even down to low levels with some accumulations expected where showers are more frequent and band together.
The biggest ? Mark is Wednesday into Thursday and where this low will be as it stands at the moment anything north of Manchester should see snow on its leading edge. If it's slightly further south it will bring more of the south into the equation and vice Versa. This is the reason for all the uncertainties I'm sure.
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Looking decent for West Yorkshire area. As heavy Snow showers follow the weather front as it passes West to east. Then Tuesday heavy snow showers for most the day accumulation likely even to lower levels. The interesting day is Wednesday when the next weather front moves in from the Atlantic. Last night the models showed the low slightly lower with the leading edge of the snow focused in the midlands now with the slight change the leading edge is over the northern half from around Manchester up to Scotland with rain below. With the low pushing up through to Scandinavia. Although there's still a great uncertainty as the the actual track if it runs in slightly lower it will bring more of the lower half into play. I expect a lot of changes between now and then. Even the smallest change can have a big impact on a lot.
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Just to get this thread going again as we have an interesting week ahead up here in the north.
Although the models aren't quite looking at good as they did yesterday, The actual forcast are looking better for us northwest folk at least for Monday night going into Tuesday then into Wednesday. at this stage it looks most likely to be heavy Snow showers some slightly more persistent at times even to lower levels. However elevation may be a key factor again as to how much and for how long.
Anyone with any thoughts?
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3 hours ago, offerman said:
Nice post snowbunting.
Classic examples of too much excitement too far out and the charts letting people down as the event draw nearer.
When will folks learn not to get their aspirations and excitement up too much beyond 3-4 days.
Time and time again it happens with the charts . Most of the time to the let down side for collies .
I love the cold and snow. I too once always looked too far ahead getting excited only to be let down. I see so many others doing the same. You can’t predict the weather so far out. Just look to charts 3-4 days within but even these can change but should be more reliable timeframe as rule of thumb.
On the flip side. People looking at models for the first time this morning without knowing the last 3days events with 36-48 hours still out would be thinking "Potential" I've seen events change within 12hours. Given the change isn't as dramatic but still its changeable. One thing I've learnt over the years you can never predict the weather. Lol.
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Easterly winds with a strong weather front pushing in from the Atlantic that stalls is the best scenario for brits London to the lakes for a big snow event the last good one was in 2012/13 i think especially for northern parts like Yorkshire where they saw 36hours of constant snow actually blowing in on easterly winds even thought the system can from the west as it stalled and with blizzard like conditions especially on elevated open areas where in some places of west and North Yorkshire saw 15f snow drifts on eastern slopes and the rest of the UK away from the south west had major roads and school closed more aless everywhere.
its definitely the best for most for a prolonged snow event that pushes the warmer front from the west away bringing freezing conditions afterwards adding to the chaos. In fact does anyone have a model or forcast for that event I think it was march 2013??
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Has anyone got any modules for next Friday handy? I think we may have the potential for an interesting event as the temperature potentially drops again.
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4" here and the snow is set for another hour or so judging by the forecast and the radar.
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9 hours ago, MIKE LEVITT said:
weather warnings for snow for brough,beverley and hornsea in east Yorkshire,yet no snow warning for hull.strange.
The likes of Beverley is just inside the warning area. I don't think the weather will be much different from hull however.
Unfortunatly on this occasion I think the furthest eastern parts of Yorkshire like Hull are going to see the least amount of snow.
Anything could happen as we see a forecast is never 100%.
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Hey Guy.
I think this will be all down to the Altitude you live tomorrow. As stated Above 100m could see a potential of a couple of inches and below could see a couple of centimetres in risk areas. Higher ground will see the largest snow fall as it always does but more so because it has the best chance of staying colder for longer as this weather system moves quickly through. However I'm sure we will see some slight changes on the area most likely and there's always a chance it will slightly stall. We can tell this with the uncertainty of the forecasters and the constant change to the forecast.
The same happened earlier in December the difference however of the uncertainties last time was how far north it would actually go as appossed to this time been how low and how long the snow will fall and last. Having said all this I'm confident the majority of Yorkshire away from the coasts will see snow. How much and if it settles will be all down to altitude and how long it stays as snow.
There's also the potential for further Sleet/Snow over higher routes on Friday Night Saturday morning so some of us will more than likely enjoy the Snow for 24hours.
North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards
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