Chertseystreamer79
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Posts posted by Chertseystreamer79
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2 hours ago, Nick2373 said:
Exeter deep dive is out for today worth a watch but not for the faint heart Southern people. Knife edge stuff I'll say that
But when he talked about plymouth and the temp anomaly he said there were still quite a lot of members that suggested cold would not shift that much as the low came in. This northerly could be quite a power house maybe???
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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Two words EXTREMELY FRUSTRATING
. I’m think why do I bother chasing winter year in year out wasting my time and energy ( I need a new hobby) . Even when all the telecommunications point the right way . All models 3 days ago , that’s op runs , means , ens and most importantly the meto . But still it all falls off a cliff . It’s extremely frustrating. It’s been the longest chase ever from the start December and let’s be real it’s another fail . Up north could still do ok . The ECM mean another downgrade . The GEM is what we should all prey for (but that is a huge ask now ) .
Absolutely
. Model watching this time around has been everything you mentioned. All green lights across models and meto updates and now, somehow...grrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!
Even possible streamer for my location looks a bit south of here in the NE wind and I live right next to the bloody Thames!
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Ahhh finally the long range on the meto app! Maybe to tell us how locked in we are for the next month!
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Please someone spot the breakdown...I'm 2 quotes off a full house!
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Same old morning runs...
That depth of cold is gonna prove a problem for any model to break down. Happy advent!
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It's about to pop in chertsey surrey....
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Ahhhh wonderful to see!
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3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Interesting that the Met say the highest risk of snow tonight is in the South of the warning area but the lowest wet bulb temperatures are clearly towards the NorthEast of the warning area. Definitely not bringing this up out of Imby desperation by the way
Do they mean as it slips away south the back edge is more likely snow (ne region), there for as that slips away more southen areas of the warning at more risk??
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Just now, Tim Bland said:
Would happily have a bbq to celebrate if we got 5 days of snow first. Over 20cm for some. Worth looking at the shift south from the last run..
And the slip south begins in Ernest.
Beautiful ecm but experience tells me to get the rainfall radar out for this one.
Gotta be something somewhere though right???
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Banger...
This will not be resolved until I see it on a rainfall radar...so many variants involved. Fingers crossed for something somewhere!
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That low has got 6 days left before it hits...probably southern France by then. General theme that they slip south isn't it?? I'm no expert...what's in play to make it not drift south or elongate?
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Quite revealing to look at the snow depth charts from gfs and see how quickly the cover disappears after each fall
After EACH fall....a line I've not seen used here ever!!! I'd take 1 fall and a melt tbh!
Next week has all sorts of chances. Couple more days to go to firm up on those though.
UKMO Breakfast special please.
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5 minutes ago, Mucka said:
We have seen this sort of scenario so often in the past.
1. There are hints of a Scandi high somewhere in the output
2. The hint grows into a nudge and other models start to come on board.
3. We get model consensus on a Beasterly 6/7 days out.
4. we see stunning winter wonderland charts and a snow a plenty and the forum is high.
5. Five days out one of the models has a wobble
6. The other models start to waver and it is hope V doom
7. The Easterly vanishes and is replaced by mild Westerlies, meltdown.
Let's hope this time is different.
This time and time again!
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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
That’s “some back feed into the flow.. this system is looking classic bk feed.. and will likely start expanding and perhaps dropping ina more southerly direction later.. this has not only got legs.. but ones on steroids!!! Which this space!!!!
Could you elaborate as I'm dry again in chertsey!
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Chertsey lamppost watch confirms falling snow...
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- Popular Post
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Several people are typing!!!....says it all.
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Just now, IanT said:
Wow! How was that measured..?
How brown his pants went...
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20 minutes ago, Malarky said:
For anyone just joining us this morning… we’ve had a cracking GEM, a decent UKMO, middling ECM, and a GFS that looks to have found a new version of physics.
After a few runs yesterday where the block seemed to be strengthening in all the right places, that signal appears to have waned somewhat.
Nothing disastrous is showing on any model in the reliable timeframe.
Game on. Knife-edge. This is why we love this.
Nice...saved me a lot of scrolling!
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7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
What an 18z!!!!!pretty much full on towards ecm!!!if the 00zs show the same my nerves will have calmed down completely!!massive turnaround in the space of 24 hours!!
Sleep well....
#zerochanceofsleep
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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
I would still caution that the snow is showing in FI. Let's get this down to 4 days out first before getting our metre sticks out!
I did say might...
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Im just loving the fact that we are talking about where SNOW might fall.
Great day so far on the models...pub run to come but overall trend looks well stabalized with good consistency and some fine tuned synoptics.
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It's the same text as before no?? Even though it says updated at 14.00utc....