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Sneachtastorm

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    Storm Georgina - Atlantic Storm 7

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Met Éireann have criteria for their warnings. Once gusts of 120kph/75mph are predicted that meets the start of their Orange warning criteria. It doesn't matter which part of the county it hits. While the Met office would have a yellow warning for this in NW Scotland where if it were the hit London City they'd have orange or red for 75mph gusts.

    Model output discussion - mid January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Latest MJO update from the Global Tropics  Hazards Outlook:

    The MJO remains coherent, with both the RMM-based and CPC velocity potential based MJO indices depicting robust amplitude and eastward propagation. The enhanced convective phase of the MJO is over the Maritime Continent, constructively interfering with the La Nina base state. A large envelope of enhanced trade winds persists over the western and central Pacific, with westerly anomalies extending from the Indian Ocean to Borneo. The upper-level velocity potential anomalies continue to reflect a coherent Wave-1 pattern, with the anomalous upper-level divergence in phase with negative OLR anomalies over the Maritime Continent. Dynamical and statistical model RMM-index forecasts consistently depict a continuation of robust MJO activity over the next several weeks, with the enhanced convective phase propagating over the West Pacific by Week-2. The ECMWF depicts a slightly faster propagation of the signal, and the 30-day ECMWF run maintains an amplified signal over the East Pacific and Western Hemisphere through Weeks 3 and 4. Based on these observations and forecasts, the MJO is anticipated to play a large role in the evolution of the global tropical convective pattern, and will likely continue to influence the midlatitude response. This MJO event has teleconnected well with the North American longwave pattern, and has contributed to the warming trend across the central and eastern CONUS. A West Pacific MJO event would potentially support a pattern change during early to mid-Feburary, with increased ridging over western North America, and downstream troughing over eastern Canada and the U.S.

    The above certainly indicates the MJO will play a role and won't be muted out by La Nina.

    So if that verifies its inevitable that we will see changes downstream in Europe.

    Lets hope we get some luck with a Euro trough and high pressure developing to the n or ne.

    The correlation with a central US or eastern trough normally is that Euro trough, the amplification of that US troughing will determine the behaviour of the jet stream downstream so we're looking for that cut back sw to develop some higher pressure to the north or ne.

    Any blocking doesn't have to be super strength! just enough to keep splitting the jet to the west of the UK with energy heading se to feed the Euro trough and the some splitting ne, its always a juggling act in these situations.

    For this reason and given the MJO is on the move bear that in mind with the outputs which are likely to be a bit more volatile than normal.

    Theres a bit more hope for coldies lets hope we can get something out of this likely shuffling of the NH pattern.
     

    High pressure to the NW would also do. A Greenland high

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, booferking said:

    I don't know crazy really to think that they cant be certain 6hrs out he did mention a good likely hood could push right into northern Ireland can't see it tho.

    Usually always the way with snow and wind storms I've noticed. Always hard for them to nail it down unless it's an exceptional event in coming 

    • Like 1

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

    Bara just did in his shocking update for the rest of the day but it hardly touches newry so nout will come of that. And I don’t take any of these newsline forecasts as gospel as they are generally way out ref snow. O to be a weatherman. In any other job you would be sacked for this kind of performance. :D

    Bara isn't a Meteorologist like Angie and Cecilia. He never studied it, just learned how to read the charts at BBC weather centre. 

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