CameronWS
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Posts posted by CameronWS
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So many storms here in recent years have been hyped without looking too dramatic or being that bad, whereas this one hasn’t got that much attention I feel but looks like it could be the most severe one to hit in years. Will this storm cause sea swells? I remember a few years ago one storm was specifically associated with large expected swells due to it it’s ‘weather bomb’ nature?
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Looks a completely unpredictable event, as these so often are. This might be mainly disappointment for the central belt but now something is showing on the models for Thursday night
And another feature for the North East tomorrow.
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Lots of models showing Tuesdays feature as rain for here. Surely we will get lucky in the middle of winter, in a cold spell. What are the key parameters looking like?
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I have a question! Follow the deep cold plunge a breakdown involving a short period of cold zonal is consistently showing. This often very marginal for my location but at least provides moisture. Would the cold plunge directly before it and already entrenched cold increase the likelihood of snow instead of rain?
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I’ve seen a lot of Model vs Model comparisons for verification rates… but how much better do Op’s verify compared to their other ensemble members?
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Looks to me like the UK high is pretty certain, however more north of the UK based - so only a very slight adjustment North required for the south and east
Whilst it won’t deliver snow for most, I’ve accepted this for my location and looking forward to a dry and progressively more frosty period. Some fog sounds nice also.
The period thereafter shows another opportunity (and perhaps a slightly better chance) for cold uppers to invade from the N/NE. This is currently around the 240 hours range which understandably is frustrating for some but really does tie in with what the Met Office are saying and the logical timeframe of a second amplification. Loads to watch and be encouraged by!
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7 minutes ago, lewis clark said:
According to alot on here we had cold allegedly coming at Christmas....but it always seems to be pushed back and never actually materialises then those posters go quiet. I'll believe it when I see it is my new thoughts on uk cold/snow lol!
That was based upon a favourable MJO signal that never materialised. Now there are numerous other factors (all way beyond me
) plus the MJO is becoming more optimal. This is seemingly without even considering the SSW that as has been mentioned before would possibly be more likely to reinforce cold conditions in a winter such as this than shake things up negatively.
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Looks set to be one of the most interesting weeks of the year here for model watching. Potentially a storm on Thursday followed by cold air digging in, starting from the NW with potential showers and then turning Northerly. Beyond then looks like there could be some battle ground scenarios where cold air meets warm. In this set up it’s pretty certain the fronts will sweep in, it just depends how far south the cold air is.
Note that none of this is guaranteed, but the possibility is there (although some sort of storm is likely).
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Huge southern bias amongst posts in here this morning I feel. Please at least be neutral and acknowledge the output looks great for some places. This looks a very promising set up for the North West of the country and unusually potent from the direction it’s coming from. Yes it may be short lived but a good chance for many to have some exciting weather.
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15 minutes ago, TillyS said:
And indeed this morning’s ECM!
I do wish people would keep it level. There’s a potent northerly showing on the 0Z GFS but we have been here with their northerlies a thousand times before and nearly every single one of them downgrades nearer the ‘event’.
The ECM is much more measured, which is where we should be right now.
p.s. the polar vortex sounds very exciting but it frequently goes meandering, without producing extreme results
I must be blind because to me ECM has jumped almost fully on board with GFS and is possibly even colder (for my location) at the same time frame. Moderately cold air looks set to invade when it ends.
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Why so many negative when the MJO signal isn’t even being factored in yet to the models? Surely when that becomes apparent the blocking showing up is likely to increase.
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35 minutes ago, BartyHater said:
Not sure anyone has said it won't, just that it's not guaranteed to do so at this stage. The clusters posted earlier showed that route is open, but so is the route to a sinker that would deliver a very different Xmas Eve to the one show on the 00 GFS op. Without doubt things look far more encouraging for cold than they did just a few days ago, but that in itself should tell us that caution is still required, especially when looking quite deep into FI....most coldies have been burnt far to many times not to think this way.
If it was a sinker would the route to cold be delayed or fail all together? I’m not fussed about snow for Xmas just like it at anytime - as rare as that is
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Hopefully EC /GFS underestimating the MJO we need higher amplitude than being programmed currently I guess..
I thought the MJO for later in the month wouldn’t be factored in to the runs at all yet, hence lack of amplification?
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1 minute ago, Catacol said:
Yep. We wait with bated breath for events in that final third. Might be signs of it by weekend 16/17 Dec at the absolute earliest but probably a week later. Working out lag timing is a pig and seemingly impossible to pin down.
Do you mean when those dates appear on model runs or until when we actually get to those dates?
Totally prepared to be patient with the potential for a cold spell near the end of the month!
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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Cold gone now, only far north
Look North though?
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Seems to me a lot of very reactionary comments on here. Lots of moaning, but we’ve got a full week a cold temps and hard frosts coming up some of the nicest weather other than Snow IMO.
Surely the lack of moisture would be have been expected at the time of the season and not a surprise? Later in the season colder T850s would create greater convection - I actually think the disappointment is partly because the spell has actually turned out much better than hoped.
According to all the knowledgeable posters on here it appears we’re entering a phase from the start of next week where the background drivers aren’t in our favour. By the final third of December there appears to be a lot of excitement about what could potentially happen - the main focus right now should be be on those developments rather than devastation because the Atlantic pushes the block back as expected after a nice, unexpected and (by all accounts) lucky cold spell.I personally am looking forward to seeing what later in the month has to offer!
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2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:
The North Sea is modifying this airmass a lot, you can really see that on the 12z ICON if you run the animation. Notice how a deeper sub -15C pool moves across Scandinavia, reaches the North Sea and just evaporates.
This is interesting because the charts make it look like it just wasn’t reaching! Will the cold that will be travelling over help to cool the sea temperatures so maybe the uppers are progressively less moderated if we can sustain the pattern?
2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:The North Sea is modifying this airmass a lot, you can really see that on the 12z ICON if you run the animation. Notice how a deeper sub -15C pool moves across Scandinavia, reaches the North Sea and just evaporates.
This is interesting because the charts make it look like it just wasn’t reaching! Will the cold that will be travelling over help to cool the sea temperatures so maybe the uppers are progressively less moderated if we can sustain the pattern?
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So, if I’m right we have a potential spoiler low that could?: -
(Option 1) Not exist/go way south - keeping all of the UK in a cold to very cold flow, mainly dry with some isolated snow/sleet showers and hard frosts.
(Option 2) Go way north - provides rain the most of the UK and diluting the cold air - perhaps making the Atlantic favourite to take over again.
(Option 3) Go slightly north - delays any arrival of deep cold. Provide rain to southern England and Ireland (hence lots of negative comments on here) and provided potential for a marginal snow event somewhere in the UK with high risk v reward. This eventually gets push out of the way by more cold air.
Imo the only bad option (long term) is the low probability option 2 where the low takes an extreme track north.
I’m trying to learn so please correct me if I’m totally wrong
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
From a true Greenland high on the 00z
To a sortof flabby huge surface high on the 06z
Consistent, then..
Yet just as good for cold in the short term? Inconsistency with the heights but still a pretty good outcome for cold based on what I can see. Also a broad theme that is showing across all models.
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
First indications of the long standing easterly wave triggered by the -IOD in the Indian Ocean is coming to an end. This should help with the next MJO cycle & indeed help switch the AAM into +ve territory more concretely. Late Dec/early Jan continues to look interesting.
Tropical forcing whilst not currently supportive of blocked patterns looks to switch around somewhat through December.
You say late December/early January. Does that suggest reduced chances of cold after early January? And almost no chance of significant cold before mid December as there’s too much Westerly momentum?
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18 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Sublime that is all
I’ve seen a few of your post recently are extremely positive but are way beyond my understanding! What is it you’re seeing and when do you expect it to have a major impact in the UK?
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Is this quite a rare situation? I can’t remember many amber warnings for rain in previous years.
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2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Overall I think I done a pretty decent job especially given the massive uncertainty between models and pro forecasters
Some might not believe and I wish I had but I was gonna do a post in the model thread yesterday saying I expected Amber warnings to be needed for Ireland and a zone from Bradford / Leeds > Sheffield to be the sweet spot 
My pressure readings were
High 997.60 hPa Low 994.99 hPa
I can't recall many occasions with such little movement in a 24hr period, also continuing the noteworthy temperatures with the mins yesterday -2.7C + Dewpoint -6.8C plus Wednesdays -4.8 + Dewpoint -7.7C and a rare average temperature of just 0.4C
Now that Low #1 departs the scene what's happening next?
First we've got two areas to watch for today with showers which could reach the west coast perhaps not far from @JamesM and @Kayemill and a front which will give a few cm top up to @Halfamilefromnowhere and @Northernlights
By tomorrow morning there might be a window for some light snow flurries through Central parts as the front continues to Drift south
Snow will move in from the south-west by around 6/7pm
Pretty much all of us should get at least 2>3cm's though there will be heavier zones of snow within the front and if you end up under that I wouldn't be shocked to see depths perhaps nearer 10cm
As less cold air then comes in this will be accompanied by heavy rain showers / rainfall bands BUT this won't be long lasting as the cold 850hpas surge back from the NW which will have the frontal precip turning back to snow and heavy snow showers reappearing
The way the ECM progresses make a huge amount of sense to me. I mentioned in my latest outlook here
by mid - late March to begin looking for High pressure developing to the East / nearby to the UK which links to MJO phase 7
Plus we keep the snow chances with the boundary an ever-present feature
Gfs in similar fashion
Most definitely
When you say all of us, do you mean even at lower levels as Met office don’t seem to indicate that currently?
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Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24
in Scottish Weather Discussion
Posted
Is there any prospect of lower level snow for the central belt later in the week?