Mr snowman 2018

It’s not negative at all I’ve been following charts for 15 years and I know where this is going we all get our hopes up every single year every time we see decent outputs but it gets watered down and eventually we get nothing we haven’t had anything significant UK wide since 2018 and I can’t see that changing either

Gfs is completely terrible even with all the background signals the UK can’t seem to grasp a cold spell safe to say winters in the UK are a thing of the past

This is why you should never get excited for things to happen in the UK you literally need everything perfect for a cold/snowy scenario to happen one little wobble and it’s game over in this country unfortunately now cold winters are very few and far between

My neck of the woods Lincolnshire would be cut off by Monday afternoon if the 00z is to be believed !

Rain at coast I’m afraid the uppers aren’t low enough high ground would do well

Would be plenty of snow around at +120 on the ECM !

And at 120 hours we are firmly in the freezer !

That’ll do nicely at 96 hours !

Got to say hats off to the UKMO model it has remained consistent through the whole thing while other models chopped and changed !

Ice days by Tuesday anyone ?

Great models this morning we now wait for the ECM to deliver the goods ! Surely this can’t go wrong now surely ?!

BBC are very bullish about this weekend in their latest update !

To something that looked nailed on a few days ago it’s now a question of will it be a decent cold spell with snow or won’t it ? We will know by Thursday if we will get anything decent !

In plus news we have a light dusting of snow here in Lincolnshire and it’s still snowing ! IMG_5223.MOV

But if you look at the uppers and dew points they are very marginal !

Very good steps going forward this morning but we need to see consistency after all it’s the uk and if something can throw a spanner in the works it will !

Can we finally say we have cross model agreement for the first time this winter ?

Just a little bit of snow then

It would be a tad chilly

192 BOOM !

Uppers on the ECM 168

ECM at 168 !

Uppers aren’t anything special at 144 on the ECM though or am I missing something?

Hasn’t been that snowy with -7 uppers has been marginal on low ground during the day in some places !

Unfortunately I can only see this going one way now ECM is one of the most accurate models out there and with all the background signals we have had over the past 6 weeks and we haven’t had anything significant I’m throwing in the towel on this winter now as I can’t see anything significant at all we always get good charts 7- 10days out and it never falls into the reliable time frame unfortunately it’s one of the joys living in the UK sometimes we get lucky but unfortunately most cases we don’t on the plus side at least there won’t be any significant snow to disrupt vaccine distribution!