Mr snowman 2018

Would love to see Lincolnshire get a decent snow event we have just had marginal stuff and a few dustings !

We haven’t had anything decent in Lincolnshire!

BBC weather for the week ahead update is very poor just saying hill snow only now I think that will be the outcome

Problem is I can’t remember a winter with such a negative Ao and a negative nao since the 1st of December not delivering anything substantial 2018 and 2010 both delivered the UK seems to be cursed when it comes to decent cold spells all the background signals have been there for nearly 2 months and nothing exceptional has happened !

Exactly day 9/10 we have been here before so many times this winter ! always in f.i

ECM at 192 simply isn’t good enough for me unless you like marginal snow events like most of us have encountered this winter !

We needed the ECM to follow the GFS on the 12z and it simply hasn’t I have a feeling this will go wrong now as we need all models to come into agreement it’s when they don’t it sends alarm bells ringing for me !

Long long way off and in a very unreliable time frame !

Again f.I model period always gets pushed back

That’s the GEM though and the GEM is quite unreliable in terms of models the gfs is totally different and unfortunately I think the gfs will be the correct outcome I’m afraid

Not doom and gloom at all it’s the UK we are used to disappointment in winter as it’s the normal now and it has been for a long time the exception being 2010 and 2018 !

Yet again we are chasing charts again in the fi timeframe I’m afraid anything decent is always +192 hours plus This SSW could easily affect the USA and we stay on the mild side unfortunately I see this scenario playing out this time around !

Lincolnshire has had barely anything from this cold spell a few dustings that’s about it if the east is to get anything significant it needs to be a good easterly dragging moisture off of a relatively warm North Sea

Good streamer potential In the east of the country from tomorrow night!

You also have to remember the gfs is very low resolution you’ll have to go to the higher resolution

Ah fair enough I know some of the effects and the lag of the SSW but didn’t know it isn’t an official SSW yet thanks for clearing this up either way a few fascinating few days of model watching coming up !

Either way models are showing something significant in 9-10 days time which would be in line with the SSW as we start feeling effects in the UK around 10days after

No a warming favours us most of the time but sometimes a SSW just favours the US and not us it’s just more nailed on if there is a split in the vortex which happens in the latest model in around 3-4 days time !

Just to say this is the stratosphere at the moment as you can see it’s in its SSW phase and most models now are pointing something significant wise from around the 9th/10th of January which would be correct as the SSW has around a 10 day lag before its effects are felt in the UK also interesting to note later on in the run the polar vortex splits in 2 which can be very good for us coldies! The charts from now should get more interesting from each passing day a fascinating few days of model watching coming up !

I think the gfs is broken this morning

That will be the SSW finally coming into the models which is also showing a perfect split wether or not that happens is a different question don’t expect anything to be too excited about until around the 9th of January onwards

This type of gfs run it would just get colder and colder and colder with that slack flow and any precipitation coming into the UK would fall as snow best charts i have seen since 2018

The uppers in the east look moderated though and the dew points in the east aren’t that great rather I fear the north east and east may miss out altogether

Absolutely brilliant !

Bbc are even saying heavy and disruptive snow for many areas next week now !