[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just now, A.J said:

Mods, sorry to pick out this individual post but its so indicative of how a thread can be easily derailed by broadbrush one liner posts with no evidence or analysis, just a throw-away negative comment 

It’s not negative at all I’ve been following charts for 15 years and I know where this is going we all get our hopes up every single year every time we see decent outputs but it gets watered down and eventually we get nothing we haven’t had anything significant UK wide since  2018 and I can’t see that changing either 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Gfs is completely terrible even with all the background signals the UK can’t seem to grasp a cold spell safe to say winters in the UK are a thing of the past 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

This is why you should never get excited for things to happen in the UK you literally need everything perfect for a cold/snowy scenario to happen one little wobble and it’s game over in this country unfortunately now cold winters are very few and far between 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

My neck of the woods Lincolnshire  would be cut off by Monday afternoon if the 00z is to be believed  !

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Channel low at 144, south buried!

Rain at coast I’m afraid the uppers aren’t low enough high ground would do well 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Would be plenty of snow around at +120 on the ECM !

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

And at 120 hours we are firmly in the freezer !

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

That’ll do nicely at 96 hours !

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Got to say hats off to the UKMO model it has remained consistent through the whole thing while other models chopped and changed !

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Ice days by Tuesday anyone ?

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Great models this morning we now wait for the ECM to deliver the goods ! Surely this can’t go wrong now surely ?!

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

BBC are very bullish about this weekend in their latest update !

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

To something that looked nailed on a few days ago it’s now a question of will it be a decent cold spell with snow or won’t it ? We will know by Thursday if we will get anything decent !

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

In plus news we have a light dusting of snow here in Lincolnshire and it’s still snowing !

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That spoiler low you speak of gives significant snowfall to much of country.

 

But if you look at the uppers and dew points they are very marginal !

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Very good steps going forward this morning but we need to see consistency after all it’s the uk and if something can throw a spanner in the works it will !

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Can we finally say we have cross model agreement for the first time this winter ?

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

UKV & NetWx extended for the weekend..

Just a little bit of snow then

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

It would be a tad chilly  

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

192 BOOM !

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Uppers on the ECM 168

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

ECM at 168 !

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Uppers aren’t anything special at 144 on the ECM though or am I missing something?

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know we ant got the beast but surely that’s quite snowy between 144 and 168 

Hasn’t been that snowy with -7 uppers has been marginal on low ground during the day in some places !

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Unfortunately I can only see this going one way now ECM is one of the most accurate models out there and with all the background signals we have had over the past 6 weeks and we haven’t had anything significant I’m throwing in the towel on this winter now as I can’t see anything significant at all we always get good charts 7- 10days out and it never falls into the reliable time frame unfortunately it’s one of the joys living in the UK sometimes we get lucky but unfortunately most cases we don’t on the plus side at least there won’t be any significant snow to disrupt vaccine distribution!