Mr snowman 2018
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Posts posted by Mr snowman 2018
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Just now, Kasim Awan said:
Only right at the end. It's very well supported otherwise.
Yes that’s what I’m saying it’s in good agreement
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GFS operational ensemble is the mildest of the lot !
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ECM at 192 !
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ECM at 144 make of it what you will !
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6 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Just before the more experienced come on I want to clear a few things up..
GFS is a crap model when looking at weather coming from any other direction bare west. Its a westerly biased model and thus it churns out stuff only to be corrected within a very short time period. It has picked up things in the past and been right about it, but it doesn't have the capability to be right very often.
If the US gets cold and snow it kills our chances...wrong, while it maybe the case the jet stream gets more energy into it, if you have a block in place or a disrupted jet stream you can still get cold here no problem.
The overnight runs often bring misery only to be corrected through the day. One run does not mean a new "trend" is on the horizon. It takes several runs across the board to pick up a trend..
Time periods are usually wrong with weather. It's near on impossible to pin point this will happen at this date type of thing. Your talking about very complex and global weather right now...
Yesterday we said FI was 3-4 days. That's still the case now so with that in mind anything past 72-96hrs look at it, process it, compare it, bin it.
Gfs has been poor for the last 5 or so runs isn't that a trend ?
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Gfs looking poor yet again this morning
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Anyone else nervous for the gfs 12z ?
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Well quote me if I'm wrong but 00z control run looks an outlier to me and there seems to be a trend with most ensembles going below average now the control run would do nicely !
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3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
Which "Atlantic" are you referring to?...
Ok I was wrong about the atlantic but usually in most cases when the US is cold we stay on the mild side of the jet and every cold spell the mid and north US have it just fires up the jet stream more I can see us just being in a zonal pattern with westerlies or south westerlies
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2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
its not though..lot colder than normal
I really want to be positive I want cold weather but i cant see it happening at the moment especially the runs the gfs was churning out yesterday was as bad as it gets for us coldies
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9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
Why?
Because its just the norm for UK winters nao is going to go positive I think and also the Atlantic is so warm and mild after that long hot summer we had
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Knew this would happen always does in this country we just always seem to be desperately unlucky when it comes to blocking. The ECM was the first to point out no snow at the end of November and bravo to it cool/cold then milder next weekend until next time
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ECM at 216 hmmm ??
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ECM at 168 hours
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ECM looks good at 144 !
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Eyes down for the GFS 18z yes it's the pub run but interesting if it sides with the ECM or dare I say it upgrades further!
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I think we can be quite certain that next week looks cold now how cold we get is open to question.There will be a lot of chopping and changing on each run so we wont have any real clarity of what's Happening until around Sunday evening or Monday so let's just sit back and see where the runs take us
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GEFS ensembles look interesting !
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Liking the snow maker in my location on Tuesday on the 00z GFS ? but of course this will change by the weekend
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Oh boy oh boy -13 uppers by Monday afternoon in the UK
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I have to keep pinching myself here to witness what I'm seeing as good as 1897 it's absolutely incredible headlines next weekend UK frozen
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Wow what a GFS 6z truly we are on the verge of something special folks the best cold and snowiest spell since 2013 and possibly the coldest and snowiest since 2010 it's been a long time coming folks but it sure looks like that Beast will finally show itself in the UK once more
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Also the gfs 12z nothing of any significance in the south but as I said it's only 1 run and I hope it's a massive outlier and the ECM delivers the goods
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Gfs +150 is a thing of beauty