[Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins]

4 hours ago, WhiteFox said:

I disagree! What you need to do is tune out the noise. The longwave pattern is identical in the two charts that @West is Best posted. The surface analysis is different because it always will be at that range; smaller scale features are enormously complex to forecast.

As far as forecasting goes, IMHO, you can only reliably predict PPN amounts and temperature within a range that broadens as you move further out in time (yes, there are times when the range narrows or widens, generally when a pattern change is occurring). Beyond that, you are simply looking at likelihoods and probabilities; no scientific forecaster will be willing to say if it will rain and what the temperature will be at a particular time on a date more than six days in the future. They may forecast above or below average conditions in a range of categories for a period of time, but I don't think that models going past 6 days were ever intended to be taken literally, but rather as a guide.

Forecasts do bust, with this winter being a prime example. But, on the whole, NWP models are pretty good when it comes to forecasting PPN (not type!), wind direction and overall conditions out to the six or seven day range. Going further out, I only consider a forecast to be a bust if a predicted pattern change hasn't happened or an unforeseen change did happen (e.g. mobile to blocked) and anything beyond day 10 is simply a possibility rather than a likelihood.

A forecast hasn't failed just because a secondary low appeared on one operational output and then does not on the next: that is what I mean by noise.

Agreed to a point but my point was the lack of clarity in model charts beyond a cirtain time which to my mind makes forecasting very very difficult yes the experts can see chinks of what might happen in the future but invariably what we see every 6 hours or 12 on the models beyond 5 to 7 days rarely come to 20% fruition which is either interesting to some or very disappointing to most ,let's hope the models become a bit more reliable in the future,

A good post by yourself  all the same 

[Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins]

2 hours ago, West is Best said:

GFS ... I love it but it's propensity either to wildly over-bake Atlantic storms and then ignore the ones which actually do occur (eg Freya) makes it so erratic.

Here's a classic example. Last night's 18z for Sunday:

= a deep and potent storm over southern Britain.

Six hours later on the 0z run? It's completely vanished!!!!

 

 

Unreliable model madness will kill positive debate if things don't improve in the future ,what images shows is what I've been saying all winter ,anything on the models beyond 120 hours can't be relied on is now sometimes down to 96 hours which makes the forecasters job a nightmare ,I look forward to the day when the model performance improve s

[Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins]

Mo ring all ,March can be a funny month,with every type of British weather possible accept warm barmy and hot nights ,with the winter we have witnessed don't be surprised to see some still real cold weather if we get the right set ups ,and if you want to believe the models hints are there in about 10 days time but before that we look like becoming more unsettled with something we haven't had much of this winter high winds and some precipitation which if we don't get much of will lead to another drought come the growing season,unsettled, colder with hill snow up north in the coming week and then hopefully some last horar winter weather which is always possible till the may flower comes out

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Well well the models show what cold lovers don't want to see which could be exactly to our favour and the complete opposite to them showing what we want to see beyond 7 days 

Don't believe what we are seeing but instead realise that we could be seeing another cold spell brewing towards the end of the month,this week's spring can easily change to next week s back to winter, still too early to write winter off I say

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Morning all ,looked at gfs and ecm and I don't accept what they are showing what they are showing from 7 days out with the heights moving towards Scandinavia and a mild easterly following with colder air over Germany down to the balkans, never known that before ,in my opinion that will change in the coming days to much colder air creeping our way if the high becomes a block over to our northeast 

Gfs oz is hinting at height link up with Greenland at day 10 which is encouraging if future runs back this up ,if not early spring will continue with the block sticking to our East or southeast 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Morning all ,looked at gfs and ecm and I don't accept what they are showing what they are showing from 7 days out with the heights moving towards Scandinavia and a mild easterly following with colder air over Germany down to the balkans, never known that before ,in my opinion that will change in the coming days to much colder air creeping our way if the high becomes a block over to our northeast 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

50 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

And those predicted  charts are from the same models that can hardly ever get it right beyond 5 days so why so different now al of a sudden ,I don't buy anything beyond 5 days and never will ,there's a lot of very cold air still to the east by the weekend and if the high pressure shifts to the northwest after the weekend we will see some of that cold coming this way so enjoy this spring weather while it lasts

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

Whens the Hunt for a  warm spring thread roll out

Start it on Friday for me.

Don't throw the towel in yet m8 still plenty of time for a change,especially where you live ,have a thought for yours truely down here in southeast suffolk less time for a snow event happening and our football team doomed for relegation to division 1,one wheel on my waggon ,na wa a mean pawsey 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I shouldn't have said anything, now GFS, gefs and GFS p have gone back to being stormy with continuous rain for days in the long term. Such a massive swing from the 12z.

And the complete opposite to what the AO trend suggests

AO is plus 3 at the moment ,we need it to be at neutral and showing it going to at least -4/5 before we see any real change to what we have now ,enjoy the spring spell while it lasts

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

11 hours ago, Don said:

I’ll give it until next weekend before properly throwing the towel in!

All the models are going for a quiet settled week,think I'll go to sleepnow till someone wakes me up when there is something more exciting within 7 days showing on the chart runs,night night

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Great, let's all leave the UK cause we could have a sequence of mild winters, only problem now is with brexit, no bugger will have us

No two winters will be the same as with our summers ,it just this one has so far been very disappointing for a lot of us but there is still time for a change to more wintery weather although it's not looking that way for the next 5 days ,beyond that there's still the chance for the block which will be to our East to migrate to a more favourable position

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

If we don't see anymore real wintry charts and weather in the coming 4/5 weeks then this winter will be among one of the most disappointing after all the great expectations just before Xmas ,let's hope mother nature has something exciting to give us before we start looking forward to spring 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, fromey said:

I’m going to assume not much to talk about in the models then!!

I think it's because as per usual the cold set ups keep keep moving back run by run way out in fantasy land ,nothing really to get excited about in the coming 5 days, the mild wedge comes back after tomorrow brief cold spell for most of next week ,need I say more

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I won't be convinced or start getting excited till these setups are 5 days away,sorry guys but like many I'm done with getting my hopes up with FI charts ,but for now we have an interesting development coming later Sunday into early Monday with a real snow risk as a low slips southeast ward 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Looking at ecm and gfs 12z runs tonight and how completely different they are at 240 just proves how unbelievable the models are beyond a cirtain point of time and how it's almost impossible to forecast what's really going to happen beyond a weeks time ,even the AO  forecast has changed in the last 3 days from staying around the -3 to now going plus 4/5,good luck to those who can get a forecast right from these models but for me I'm going down to the river to grab a handful of seaweed  and watch that instead and carry on looking at the fax charts instead

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

As this thread states this winter has been a hunt for cold ,but maybe more a battle with the azores block which we have had for most of this winter which refuses to budge,and although we saw snow for some last week this constant set up will give us mainly milder atlantic weather with at best cold zonal short spells ,if that block becomes a Bartlet block it could mean an early spring,what we all want is that block to migrate north to block the Atlantic but all we are seeing is weak ridges which won't stop the Atlantic for long and another cold zonal weekend coming,let's hope by the weekend the short 5 day chart runs show some more positive signs of stronger blocking and in the right place

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Up to T 120 is a step in the right direction, beyond that isn't bad with heights 5 to 10 mbna higher to our NW up to 168 beyond that I'll ignore as fantasy, but after a mild late Monday into Tuesday cold zonal for the north which could creep back south if the jet is forced further south 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

The sudden change to a less cold bit milder week has weed on the national newspapers over ramped cold spell forecasts for now,wonder what they will print now lol

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Quiet tonight,seems most are believing what's showing beyond 5 days as gospel which is far from reality, trust me there's still a lot of winter left to go,when have we ever seen a wall to wall cold spell lasting more than the last week not many,the cold will be back ,as the days lengthen so the cold strength en 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, mulzy said:

I really think post-mortems should wait till 28th February.  The ext EPS while poor have been far from consistent.  Less of an Atlantic influence in this morning's set.  Clusters will be interesting - maybe a start of a trend to more settled conditions (yes mild initially then colder) - just don't know at the moment.

Point I was trying to make ,well said, according to the models mild takes over ,but with their track record this winter hopefully winter will be back next weekend

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Morning all ,this coming five days sees a return to a stronger atlantic as heights rise and move to our south ,our only hope is it doesn't last too long as there are hints of cold zonel not weekend again ,beyond that ,we'll let's face it all the model s could nt even get right where the sun rises and sets let alone weather charts beyond 5 days 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, On the rocks said:

The lightest of flurries in Peterborough now - don't think it will last!

Looking at the radar it might

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Great stuff in Bassingstoke, I'm keeping my eye on what happening to the north of me,shower activitie creeping ever nearer now effecting north norfolk

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Perfect snow setups for the southern/ southeastern Britain are rare which isn't helped by unreliable  cold setups shown on the models

Yes it's showing less cold early next week but believe what the models are showing beyond 5 days at your frustration ,I for years have found  probably 1 out of 40 cold spell model set ups beyond 7 days come into fruition ,most of the time they move further East by 500 miles if they stay on the chart runs that's because the atmosphere is constantly changing the outlook situation which the models will ware ly pinpoint 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, sunnijim said:

I guess we must have been lucky here, no rain ,just a climb to +3c for a couple of hours between 0200 and 0400 before we fell to +1c again,so a thaw and then a very slow thaw.

Very rare for to get snow s,Jim, I missed out last night ,hopefully might get a bit tonight with the NE setting in