Eastnorthwest
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Posts posted by Eastnorthwest
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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:
getting cold out their,wind chill already this time tomorrow going to be frigid.shame it's over so quickly.two days is pathetic for a Siberian easterly,why is it going to end so quickly
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Turning more snow as I post here,baby beast is almost here, just need the forecast drop in temperature to arrive and the darkened landscape here will lighten up slightly when the snow starts to stick
I'm up now so will keep you all informed how things are here near Chelmondiston and Shotley in the coming hours
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Morning all ,currently 2 c here with sleet ,to my north they now have heavy snow in parts of norfolk as the colder/coldest conditions creep in from the east ,going to be a good couple of days for radar/sky watching for where the heaviest snow falls ,and what's different from last time most of us haven't got to go to work,happy days
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Morning all ,currently 2 c here with sleet ,to my north they now have heavy snow in parts of norfolk as the colder/coldest conditions creep in from the east ,going to be a good couple of days for radar/sky watching for where the heaviest snow falls ,and what's different from last time most of us haven't got to go to work,happy days
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Well well compared to 12Z the 18Z has the cold spell reduced to a snap all but over by late Monday ,beast 2 if you can call it that now to a least but 2 and a half day circus than a show which this time around as a result the models over the last 5 days have been a complete sham and a waste of our time ,even the AO has gone from staying mainly negative to a strengthening positive in 2 days
Impossible for anyone to forecast beyond 3 days under current farcical model performance, in fact if tonights pub run is mirrored at 00Z and 06Z then it's becoming beyond laughable it's becoming an outrage that these so called state of the art systems can be taken that seriously beyond 3 days let alone 5 ,sad but true,and killing any weather forum discussions before they can get started
This week has put model discussion at new lowest depths ,and proof that even in these days of up to date technology we still aren't any better off seeing into the future than we were 20 years ago, strange
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Looking at the latest GFS and fax run I don't buy how they are showing the Scandinavian high weakening and sinking southWest between Sunday and Monday like they want it to,
I believe we may see an upgrade into the position of the HP in the coming couple of days ,also I don't buy next weeks charts either ,just watch them change in the coming couple of days
Back to the here and now East anglia and the southeast should be in for a battering Sunday into Monday according to pub run
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2 hours ago, Daniel* said:
I don’t know whether plenty will be disappointed the synoptic on Sunday looks pretty darn good to deliver quite widely in our region looks very good convectively.
Seems to me in the sort term (next 4 days esp Sunday into Monday looks pretty dam perfect for East anglia and the southeast and at this stage I don't buy that high shifting southwest as quickly on Monday like the models are suggesting, so I predict this coming event extending a bit in the coming 48 hour runs ,just look at the latest fax chart from Sunday to Monday and how the high shrinks so quickly, maybe over Greenland not over Scandinavia
As for beyond Tuesday again I don't buy what the main models are showing, just watch them change by Saturday for the good
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44 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Yes ^^ Snow cold & instability extends from early doors Sat to Late Sunday-
More than enough time for inches of snow to fall
Entry point smoothes to around Suffolk / North Kent of the core - Circa 2009 Feb...
Yes it's not bad for time of year but as I have said before the models are crap at predictING cold weather charts beyond 5 days
3 days ago they predicted high pressure blocking to our NE ,then being replaced by another to our NO pulling N,NE winds for the second half of next week now they are going for the Scandinavian high to sink southwestard bringing a much short end cold spell of 3 days max ,unbelievable, and to top it all the AO today is now going to go plus 2 positive by mid next week,a bad day and if you wanted a last extended cold spell but a good day for looking forward to hopefully a snowy weekend for most
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42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
That chart confirms the phasing issues and looks crxp compared to the others!
I really would advise that people wait till tomorrow morning before thinking this is a done deal re the easterly .
The UKMO before that day 7 has already left the party and gone home .
I agree we are almost there like last time ,just one more day ,maybe two and then we can start scanning the forecast for what we are about to receive
I've always admired your cautious way you always deliver how it is now posts down the years right back to those bbc forum days
No smokescreen reterick, just honest prognosis on what you read into each chart run
Well done nick for your input and efforts over many many years
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Just now, Eastnorthwest said:
00Z run more or less same as previous run showing same easterly being replaced by NE Easterly by T 240
Very encouraging for coldies ,next 2 days crucial to more or less nail it
1 of the 2 days gone and boy how positive the models are tonight ,also the AO isn't showing any real positivity yet so still all good for cold lovers,one more day of caution then it'll be start looking to where the snow might fall and looking for troughs and streamers
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On 10/03/2018 at 23:23, Eastnorthwest said:
Even better it's just off the east coast by T 165 which hopefully with the time frame won't change much on next few GFS runs
00Z run more or less same as previous run showing same easterly being replaced by NE Easterly by T 240
Very encouraging for coldies ,next 2 days crucial to more or less nail it
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11 minutes ago, Matthew. said:
Just 2 weeks till British summertime begins
let’s hope the ECM has something like this
If not tonight, hopefully tomorrow
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2 hours ago, Daniel* said:
Oh dear...
The rather epic cold spell just gone there were times when ensembles had cold feet, nearer on some well most went cold some sizeable number went mild, after seemingly all we’re interested in cold easterly and then they went back to it. Best to follow the operational I’d say. From what I’ve seen today no real change evident, ECM op was quite frankly off on one let’s see what 12z does. BBC Weather are being quite bullish which is unusual of them, with a cold easterly flow setting in next weekend.
Just seen the latest AO and an upgrade on yesterday for all red lines staying negative till end of the month, keep that theme in the coming days and the main models will favour another block to the north, I am pleased tonight
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Just now, Eastnorthwest said:
00Z run more or less same as previous run showing same easterly being replaced by NE Easterly by T 240
Very encouraging for coldies ,next 2 days crucial to more or less nail it
Ok so the other models are garbage compared to GFS but that will change if the AO shows no signs of going positive in the next 2/3 days ,next 2 GFS runs also crucial for the other models to come on board don't ya think?
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10 hours ago, Eastnorthwest said:
Even better it's just off the east coast by T 165 which hopefully with the time frame won't change much on next few GFS runs
00Z run more or less same as previous run showing same easterly being replaced by NE Easterly by T 240
Very encouraging for coldies ,next 2 days crucial to more or less nail it
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6 hours ago, Eastnorthwest said:
Even better it's just off the east coast by T 165 which hopefully with the time frame won't change much on next few GFS runs
00Z run more or less same as previous run showing same easterly being replaced by NE Easterly by T 240
Very encouraging for coldies ,next 2 days crucial to more or less nail it
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1 minute ago, Eastnorthwest said:
First row of blocks have been laid on tonights main model runs with the beast coming back towards us at T 192 on pub run
At this run the coldest hits the north with snow for most bar south of M 4 corridor to river Thames there after northeasterly flow becomes established into fantasy island,
Anyone for a white Easter at this stage
Even better it's just off the east coast by T 165 which hopefully with the time frame won't change much on next few GFS runs
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18 hours ago, Eastnorthwest said:
GF'S 00Z run is hinting of heights building over Scandinavia but at this stage as you would expect not as strong feed of cold air from the east by 192 hours but the signs of a pattern change are there
That low moving into France only has to intensify on future runs and a not so angry beast might make it to our shores,
Still a long way off but the foundations for another cold spell have been concreted, now we need them to set ,then wait for the brickie s to arrive and start laying some blocks in the coming days
First row of blocks have been laid on tonights main model runs with the beast coming back towards us at T 192 on pub run
At this run the coldest hits the north with snow for most bar south of M 4 corridor to river Thames there after northeasterly flow becomes established into fantasy island,
Anyone for a white Easter at this stage
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GF'S 00Z run is hinting of heights building over Scandinavia but at this stage as you would expect not as strong feed of cold air from the east by 192 hours but the signs of a pattern change are there
That low moving into France only has to intensify on future runs and a not so angry beast might make it to our shores,
Still a long way off but the foundations for another cold spell have been concreted, now we need them to set ,then wait for the brickie s to arrive and start laying some blocks in the coming days
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Ma mama morning all
After a run of a few days of early spring like conditions with shed loads of rain ECM puts in a return of the beast next weekend
which best surprise given the AO is showing no real signs of going positive at the moment ,as daniel s quoted March is nature's transfer month from winter to spring and sometimes can be colder than December
The severe cold at this stage is hinting at being brief from the east but as it's far out at 7 days time from now this could develop or be a non starter/one off run and needs to be cep an eye on in the coming days
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Just now, Daniel* said:
Spring at least the start is going to be miserable... it’s fairly clear it’s going to be a wetter than average month. The mountains of Scotland will continue to see snow, and maybe more areas of north at times. I’d rather we just get some spring warmth than it being 7C and wet and cool. Don’t see any real appetite for real cold. Well what can you expect it’s March anything from the north is still going to pack a punch, as we see maximum arctic sea ice extent seen in early March? I’m happy with how the winter went following ‘beast’, made up 5 year wait.
I agree, it's been a momentum week for weather, but if we are now going to get low after low tracking across the UK keeping temperatures below average for weeks I feel we will all go mad and be wanting warmer weather
A very long road to spring showing on the models today
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The current set up now the beast has moved through has left the UK as the battle ground between the colder air to the north and the milder air to the south ,currently the models want to keep it that way all week with above average rainfall for most and still wintryness for northern half of the UK
It only take a slight change in the runs in the coming days and the cold to the north will sink further south than what's being shown
The next 24 hours hopefully will see some positive changes l
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Morning each, have we enjoyed this week or what?
The beast came it conquered, and now because of the reverse in wind direction it has moved West and slightly north ,but I have to say it's been the best cold spell since 09/10 and we have seen the most dramatic scenes since 1991 in regards drifting due to the extreme cold keeping the snow type drift able for when the high winds hit the UK,
But as always our weather is ever changing and now this morning here the temperature has crept above freezing for the first time in 6 days and we in the south will see according to the models less cold by day conditions for next 4 days as it looks we may slip back to what we had for most of the winter with pressure rising again over the azo res which will keep as very unsettled at times in the coming 2 weeks with no more severe cold or also no spring like weather for long either
The beast came ,conquered then left us ,and now we have a bit of a mess to clear up
Stay safe on the roads over the weekend
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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
The rates remind me of 2009
if this carried on for most of night I’d be buried.
Morn Dan ,the damage will come when the wind picks up,
NE from you East Essex is getting slowly be rid aswell
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let’s hope the ECM has something like this
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards
in Regional
Posted
It's going to be shorter than last time because the high doesn't stay put and block for long ,instead it moves southwestard and the uppers warm up slowly from minus 10 s to minus 5/6 by Monday
Also mid march is getting a bit late in the season for prolonged cold
Maybe after this spell it's time for spring