Eastnorthwest

Agreed to a point but my point was the lack of clarity in model charts beyond a cirtain time which to my mind makes forecasting very very difficult yes the experts can see chinks of what might happen in the future but invariably what we see every 6 hours or 12 on the models beyond 5 to 7 days rarely come to 20% fruition which is either interesting to some or very disappointing to most ,let's hope the models become a bit more reliable in the future, A good post by yourself all the same

Unreliable model madness will kill positive debate if things don't improve in the future ,what images shows is what I've been saying all winter ,anything on the models beyond 120 hours can't be relied on is now sometimes down to 96 hours which makes the forecasters job a nightmare ,I look forward to the day when the model performance improve s

Mo ring all ,March can be a funny month,with every type of British weather possible accept warm barmy and hot nights ,with the winter we have witnessed don't be surprised to see some still real cold weather if we get the right set ups ,and if you want to believe the models hints are there in about 10 days time but before that we look like becoming more unsettled with something we haven't had much of this winter high winds and some precipitation which if we don't get much of will lead to another drought come the growing season,unsettled, colder with hill snow up north in the coming week and then hopefully some last horar winter weather which is always possible till the may flower comes out

Well well the models show what cold lovers don't want to see which could be exactly to our favour and the complete opposite to them showing what we want to see beyond 7 days Don't believe what we are seeing but instead realise that we could be seeing another cold spell brewing towards the end of the month,this week's spring can easily change to next week s back to winter, still too early to write winter off I say

Morning all ,looked at gfs and ecm and I don't accept what they are showing what they are showing from 7 days out with the heights moving towards Scandinavia and a mild easterly following with colder air over Germany down to the balkans, never known that before ,in my opinion that will change in the coming days to much colder air creeping our way if the high becomes a block over to our northeast Gfs oz is hinting at height link up with Greenland at day 10 which is encouraging if future runs back this up ,if not early spring will continue with the block sticking to our East or southeast

Morning all ,looked at gfs and ecm and I don't accept what they are showing what they are showing from 7 days out with the heights moving towards Scandinavia and a mild easterly following with colder air over Germany down to the balkans, never known that before ,in my opinion that will change in the coming days to much colder air creeping our way if the high becomes a block over to our northeast

And those predicted charts are from the same models that can hardly ever get it right beyond 5 days so why so different now al of a sudden ,I don't buy anything beyond 5 days and never will ,there's a lot of very cold air still to the east by the weekend and if the high pressure shifts to the northwest after the weekend we will see some of that cold coming this way so enjoy this spring weather while it lasts

Don't throw the towel in yet m8 still plenty of time for a change,especially where you live ,have a thought for yours truely down here in southeast suffolk less time for a snow event happening and our football team doomed for relegation to division 1,one wheel on my waggon ,na wa a mean pawsey

AO is plus 3 at the moment ,we need it to be at neutral and showing it going to at least -4/5 before we see any real change to what we have now ,enjoy the spring spell while it lasts

All the models are going for a quiet settled week,think I'll go to sleepnow till someone wakes me up when there is something more exciting within 7 days showing on the chart runs,night night

No two winters will be the same as with our summers ,it just this one has so far been very disappointing for a lot of us but there is still time for a change to more wintery weather although it's not looking that way for the next 5 days ,beyond that there's still the chance for the block which will be to our East to migrate to a more favourable position

If we don't see anymore real wintry charts and weather in the coming 4/5 weeks then this winter will be among one of the most disappointing after all the great expectations just before Xmas ,let's hope mother nature has something exciting to give us before we start looking forward to spring

I think it's because as per usual the cold set ups keep keep moving back run by run way out in fantasy land ,nothing really to get excited about in the coming 5 days, the mild wedge comes back after tomorrow brief cold spell for most of next week ,need I say more

I won't be convinced or start getting excited till these setups are 5 days away,sorry guys but like many I'm done with getting my hopes up with FI charts ,but for now we have an interesting development coming later Sunday into early Monday with a real snow risk as a low slips southeast ward

Looking at ecm and gfs 12z runs tonight and how completely different they are at 240 just proves how unbelievable the models are beyond a cirtain point of time and how it's almost impossible to forecast what's really going to happen beyond a weeks time ,even the AO forecast has changed in the last 3 days from staying around the -3 to now going plus 4/5,good luck to those who can get a forecast right from these models but for me I'm going down to the river to grab a handful of seaweed and watch that instead and carry on looking at the fax charts instead

As this thread states this winter has been a hunt for cold ,but maybe more a battle with the azores block which we have had for most of this winter which refuses to budge,and although we saw snow for some last week this constant set up will give us mainly milder atlantic weather with at best cold zonal short spells ,if that block becomes a Bartlet block it could mean an early spring,what we all want is that block to migrate north to block the Atlantic but all we are seeing is weak ridges which won't stop the Atlantic for long and another cold zonal weekend coming,let's hope by the weekend the short 5 day chart runs show some more positive signs of stronger blocking and in the right place

Up to T 120 is a step in the right direction, beyond that isn't bad with heights 5 to 10 mbna higher to our NW up to 168 beyond that I'll ignore as fantasy, but after a mild late Monday into Tuesday cold zonal for the north which could creep back south if the jet is forced further south

The sudden change to a less cold bit milder week has weed on the national newspapers over ramped cold spell forecasts for now,wonder what they will print now lol

Quiet tonight,seems most are believing what's showing beyond 5 days as gospel which is far from reality, trust me there's still a lot of winter left to go,when have we ever seen a wall to wall cold spell lasting more than the last week not many,the cold will be back ,as the days lengthen so the cold strength en

Point I was trying to make ,well said, according to the models mild takes over ,but with their track record this winter hopefully winter will be back next weekend

Morning all ,this coming five days sees a return to a stronger atlantic as heights rise and move to our south ,our only hope is it doesn't last too long as there are hints of cold zonel not weekend again ,beyond that ,we'll let's face it all the model s could nt even get right where the sun rises and sets let alone weather charts beyond 5 days

Looking at the radar it might

Great stuff in Bassingstoke, I'm keeping my eye on what happening to the north of me,shower activitie creeping ever nearer now effecting north norfolk

Perfect snow setups for the southern/ southeastern Britain are rare which isn't helped by unreliable cold setups shown on the models Yes it's showing less cold early next week but believe what the models are showing beyond 5 days at your frustration ,I for years have found probably 1 out of 40 cold spell model set ups beyond 7 days come into fruition ,most of the time they move further East by 500 miles if they stay on the chart runs that's because the atmosphere is constantly changing the outlook situation which the models will ware ly pinpoint

Very rare for to get snow s,Jim, I missed out last night ,hopefully might get a bit tonight with the NE setting in