Eastnorthwest
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Eastnorthwest replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
One of the worst for model performance yes,as for weather winter doesn't end till middle of march if we get the right setups -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Eastnorthwest replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Well last night didn't happen here as it turned out to be too marginal but with temps falling tonight any showers might produce a better chance of a covering here,still all of February to go ,6 weeks left for East Suffolk maybe longer -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Eastnorthwest replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Same here so far ,models aren't worth a ha penny when comes to forecasting beyond 5 days ,the SSW hasn't produced the weather we hoped and last night's snow fell as rain here ,it is what it is Just hoping February and March has something more substantial -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Eastnorthwest replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Looking on the radar at the big lump coming up from the south ,snow ?or rain? -
The models have been horrendously bad this winter beyond 5 days so l don't buy a return to mobile westerly weather for long ,less cold next week then a return to colder zonal or even a feed from the east next month, What's not to likes in the valley I say
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Evening all ,hope you had a good weekend, the AO looks as good as last night which is good news for possible blocking and good old joe bastardi is for casting brutal cold for us and the USA by the end of the month,the charts have moved back to belts of northerly s coming in the next 7 days there after who knows cos the models keep changing beyond 7 but tonight all farely good in the valley tonight
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Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Models promise nothing ,especially beyond 5 days ,until we get a model that is more than 80% accurate beyond 7 days then we will be able to feel we've been lied to ,these models all of them change from run to run ,I gave up believing them years ago and this year they haven't improved at all if anything they have got worse , which proves that no one or no computer model still can't understand or predict the weather and what's going on in our atmospere -
Glad to see this thread back, I'll repeat what I said about 10 hours ago on another thread the current AO prog is very encouraging showing a dive to -3 in the coming days and -5 as we head into February which should encourage northern blocking,the current down slide in the models will change if the AO sticks to this current theme
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed look how it dives to -3 recovers to -2 then dives again to around -4/5 -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I still think we will see northeasterlies showing again on the charts in the next couple of days if the AO s forecast for strong negative sticks over the next few days -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey NW Snow good to see you keeping the faith m8 ,I too think we will see some very interesting weather in the coming weeks, how about you -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No real change to mild on the horizon, AO forecast to dive into negative and the charts showing some very interesting cold zonal at times ,very exciting times ahead I feel -
That will be gone on the next run, or by the morning ,the AO tonight is showing strong negative which means very strong possibility of pressure rising to our North by as early as next weekend which will give us weather from the east with sliders running into France ,I'm very upbeat about what's heading our way in the next few weeks ,it's all good in the valley tonight
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Mo del s ,believe them beyond 5 times when there's cold weather forecast at your peril and as for each 6 hour run beyond 5 days is like putting trust in a politician Cold weather is here and it might get colder and snowyer but some of the recent chart runs have been unbelievable so let's calm down and enjoy the fact it's not mild and stay positive for better blocking in a few days time
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Because until we get proper blocking our weather will always be mainly influenced by the mobile atlantic and gulf stream
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GF'S has hinted for the first in while now some northern blocking at plus T 300 tonight which we need to hope is that in the coming days this is going to start to be repeated otherwise this winter will be remembered for again for azores block which gave Europe record snowfall and the UK for the picking s from a mainly northwesterly flow which dominated our weather till the start of February, let's hope I'm wrong with the latter
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening all, Looking at gfs this evening up to T 192 there is a trend for lows to keep tracking southeast bringing us mild then cold then less cold then cold with the cold periods increasing all the time ,beyond looks very promising as I feel we will see heights to our northwest taking control of our weather pattern in the last week of January -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
2 m -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
2 of snow for the north with that chart -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM showing good positives at T 240 strong cold NW flow with even colder air coming -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Eastnorthwest replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A thumbs up for gfs -
Lemon shaped P V I felt and I do have cow pats in my valley But interesting to note I zygote on sky news mentioned much colder spell of weather towards end of January into Feb so all still good
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P V lemon to hints of a spit is very encouraging and should now help build heights to our northwest in a week or two ,but in the meantime enjoy the gradual cooling zonel before the real fun begins It's still all good in the valley where the cow pats lay thick
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Eastnorthwest replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
One thing I didn't mention in my earlier post was the AO keeping the same negative theme which is very pleasing ,what we need in the coming days is for it to head even more negative down to around -3/-5 then that should help our cause, but still all good in the valley tonight