Eastnorthwest

I predict if that warming comes into fruition then the charts will start to show favoured blocking at T 144 in about 7 days time and not sooner

This could be our best chance of cold if it keeps going,let's face it the charts aren't changing much at the moment are they

Merry Christmas everyone Sadly no snow but I'm confident will see some in the new year Have a great day

Another late start to winter ,can't see this current block in the wrong place giving Europe a cold 2 weeks and us a mild 2 weeks changing unless we see a dramatic flip in the models, merry crime everyone

Gfs and ECM look better tonight,and the Ao looks as though it doesn't want to go strong positive which is good platform for cold ies

I'll say one thing this morning, the weather we have had mostly since December won't change much until that azores high shifts position , Yes we will see warmer days and then colder days ,but the pattern won't change until that high moves which is steering low after low towards us When we had the beast the azores high was split ,one going northeast the other went West a lowing the cold spell to last more than 10 days ,now we are back to what we had in December and January which is becoming a pain in the backside, and what we will carry on seeing until the main block over the azores goes One or two might slate what I have posted ,but so be it ,I'm just saying how I see it and I see a weather stalemate which needs shifting so we can have some more settled weather

Latest charts now indicate that any snow risk in the southern half of the UK will be brief and that flooding will be the main risk for low lying areas near rivers and road uses in these areas Further north snow will be more of an issue as temps are much lower But all this will now change by Tuesday as temps of double figures will move north to all but northern scotland giving us all another feel of spring between the heavy downpours for most

The weather's version of the battle of Britain is going to happen on Monday with those on the cold side of the low seeing heavy snow especially away from the coast and those in the marked warmer zone of the low will see heavy rain with flood issues becoming more apparent The models are still fairly unreliable beyond 3 days so the areas at risk to snow might still change over the next 48 hours so lots to keep an eye on in the coming 2 to 3 days,a real weather fest for us all ,fascinating times for weather fans

The battle of Britain coming up Today the cold not too far from the UK to the north, will sink south to most areas by sunday ,then milder air will push north on Monday from the south but how far north?,We can't rely on the models that far out at the moment So I would say the weather by then could range from snow for some/most in the south to heavy rain after short snow event in the souh with middle Britain seeing a whiteout The weather type will depend on how far north this low pushes north on Monday and how far north the cold air retreats

Will be interesting to see the latest AO update this afternoon from what' it's showing now which is diving into negative again

2 gueses what the 12Z will show ,either colder or much the samey, I'm going for colder ,who's with me?

Anything is possible according to GFS recently from heavy rain to blizzards, to below average temps to the edge of the first Spanish ploom of the season fascinating if you think about it ,no one would bet their house on it ,I know I wouldn't ,easier winning the lottery than forecasting the weather at the moment

Honestly, in all the years I've been model watching i don't think I've ever known them to change so freaklently as they do these days and currently only up to 3 days out ,I wouldn't mind betting the next GFS run puts us back into the colder side of the border line by Easter Fascinating in a way and I wouldn't right off a white Easter till Friday at the mo

And if that low was to track 100/200 miles further south then more areas away from the coast from south Wales to East Anglia would come into favour,I've seen more white Easter s than Christmases, so maybe lots to watch in the coming days

Latest 2 GFS runs back your predictions Steve with that low moving West east very slowly Sunday into Tuesday ,current track would see snow fest on its northern flank currently from north Wales to Lincolnshire northwards upto Cumbria to Yorkshire Will be interesting to see how this one pans out,ie any changes to the track of this low, On the last 2 GFS runs a white Easter is still on the cards for some favoured areas

Evening all Been model watching for last 7 days and most of them have been changing their minds from run to run on this so called 3rd beastie boy ,which at first was going to happen later this week to only hitting scotland to happening over easter to then staying north to then happening early next week to now tonight staying north of the Midlands with uppers of only minus 5 up there So it's a classic situation of anything can change beyond 72 hours at the moment ,so the forecast for easter after Friday will range from cold weather moving south to milder air moving north reaching all bar scotland So still anything can happen over the coming days with none of the models showing what's goin g on with the weather ,though it does look as if the real minus 10 uppers will be staying well north of us unless the pub run shows otherwise

Tuesday is showing a posible marginal event Yorkshire down to the southeast with that dividing line front being the boundary between cold air to the east and less cold air to the west, last harrar for this current spell? or will it come to nothing, anything can happen with our weather

I feel your frustration and disappointment living where I do in a very marginal area for snow at the best of cold setups,but take heart chap all in all its been a better winter in our area since 2013 and I'm hoping this isnt a one off and that next winter will be better, before that I'm not writing off a white Easter yet ,I've seen them before in my life time ,only lasting a day or two but still impressive all the same even in your area but for now thanks for your inputs over the past few weeks ,always a pleasure reading your posts and I admire your knowledge and ability a spotting the positives in the crazy world of model watching ,thanks

Now it's my turn to report a few flakes blowing in the wind ,sky looking good to my east

Just going to miss here unless it widens more

Will be interesting to see if that trough extends up to here Shotley Suffolk

Very ironic indeed considering sky weather this morning forecast for it to be mainly dry on the eastern side from midday onwards today,good that they might have got that wrong

Hopefully thats a trough coming toward the southeast and will expand as it heads w N W

S J you raskle, how's tricks ,you might get some coming out of the low countries tonight ,and as you say there potential for the following night, Good to see your still around bud, E N W