Eastnorthwest

Gfs comes good from T 300 which is about the time we are hoping the reversal will kick in ,its still looks good to me

We've had the SSW ,we are now waiting to see if it will reverse the winds and create blocking which should start happening from the 15th to the 20th,if not it will be a huge disappointment for all ,but we are still 9 to 14 days away yet so still plenty of time for things to change with the models , I personally don't take the forecast models very seriously beyond 5 to 7 days as they always change on each run beyond 7 anyway ,I am still very confident of reversal happening but like you guys it will be a great dissappearment if it doesn't happen this time round

ECM is very good with 3 northerly flows/blasts be for hopefully NW blocking after with no sign of the Atlantic taking any real control at all A good taster before the real winter weather gets to these shores

2 runs in row heights building to our NW at last quarter of gfs run and again no westerly get taking over ,so still game on for 2nd half of month AO also staying negative aswell so all good I'd say

Indeed a better run between the horror ones but that's what you get with these chart runs beyond T 144 ever changing endings which will completely confuse us and maybe frustrate us if we let them

And the hints I mentioned are back on the 06 run with the high starting to block at T 300 but don't be surprised if the 12 run changes back to no real block at all ,but gradually the seeds are growing

Last winter I had to wait till the end of Feb for my first decent snowfall for a couple of years ,if I see snow next week followed by more northerly blasts that will be fantastic in my opinion and if we then get a couple of weeks after northeasterlies ill snap your arms off for that I'm very confident we er going to get the goods we want but it's still 7 to 10 days away and I can wait can you?

We're still about 10 days away from the tropospheric showing being effected from the stratt warming so from T 120 they will continue to alter and tease us all ,but we are now seeing hints of northerly s coming round the hP now which is a great improve ment on about 4/5 days ago ,the models always struggle to keep consistent with colder weather coming but it is coming and it might be very brutal come 2 weeks time if the warming causes the weather we want,keep the faith everyone

But come the weekend we will see a great uprade in the two main models towards the blocking that we all crave

Pendulum models ,it happens every winter,where would the fun be in models being spot on in every run, Conversation would be everyone agreeing then having nothing else to talk about like weather forums in the summertime

Evening all and firstly may I say ,and the beat s still on or maybe the beast Secondly the pendulum models still goes on as they struggle to any real consistency apart from one more than the others but as I have said before come the weekend the fog hopefully will begin to lift and show us what we want to see being forecast for the middle of the month,blocking ,AO at -5, bringing sub zero temps ,snow and no David bett mentioning it's going to be mild he he

Charts starting to hint like said towards what we want but a long time still for them to keep swinging from positive to negativity but I still say we will see real cold till middle of the month which might only be a few days or a couple of weeks we should know by the weekend ,till then as all ways the chart runs will keep changing from run to run beyond T 168 some good some not so good but we've had a couple of corkers already in fantasy land showing the block we want so all to play for in the coming days All good hints which we didn't have 2 days ago which is moving in the right direction

Happy new year everyone ,b easterly ,snow and lots of fun

Looking on the positive side if one can under the cloud of doom There are possibly the good chances that down the line we won't see any real set in stone changes till the end of the week with just hints of changes in the coming days ,then we will see through the current smoke screen for the better

ECM keeps high pressure close to the UK right through close enough to migrate north if we get reversal in 10 to 14 days time perfect I'd say Much better than GFS at the mo

Agreed ,gfs doesn't show endless rain ,severe gales and flood damage for those who are at risk Suits me fine

I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic for now but I think we all know if the warming does effect our weather it could be the ideal time for northern blocking, none better than the middle of January

Strat still warming today 10hpa now at -15 Models and AO won't show react for a while yet Weather won't react for a n other fortnight if it's going to But good chances of a moderate split in the P V which might give us what we want by middle of the month but nothing is guaranteed with these strat warming s so hold on to your buts everyone

We're still waiting for the first snow flake here ,so any type will do us here we re no worried here in suffolk with no high hills to go to to see a greater chance of snow ,any snow for most of the UK is rare these days don't you think

20 inches of snow will make up the shortfall m8

Caution is needed at this stage as the models will change back on some runs but in our favour we have the AO staying neutral heading negative and the strat warming so cold from mid month posible and snow also possible if we get the right blocking Lots going on with the new year

Has anyone noticed today's AO compared with yesterday's Almost complete flip from a forecast positive to a negative Rare you see that Now let's wait for the models follow with hints of northern blocking in the coming days

ECM by day five to seven looks better than GFS but which one will come into reality maybe neither ,what's needed is for the azores heights to lower and pressure to rise and hold its ground over iceland when the effects of the strat warming might come into play which isn't showing at the end of the gfs runs at the moment Callander winter is a third through already but I believe actual winter is only just starting and if the sww does effect our weather then mid January will see our first real cold spell which might not show on the models for a few more days yet