[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, paget said:

Stop buying sledges!!

im going to ceremonially burn my sledge while holding a twig of holly in my teeth dancing around the fire naked!

We're going to need photographic evidence. And not of molten plastic.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

Wow, that can't be right? 

I agree.  It's likely to be more

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep am going a bit conservative until the High Res models come into view and start to show any streamer events that could set up with favourable wind vectors. Could be a lot more on offer if things are favourable

wise words - as nice as the synoptics are looking right now I think i'll hold back on cracking open the bottle of Pomagne 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

48 minutes ago, Surrey said:

 Thames streamer?

 

Uppers aren't great on that chart but might just be enough . . . -12 would have been all systems go without question

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Welcome to the madhouse Timstar1. Fellow SE Essex resident here. Things looking good for us at the moment from Sunday morning onwards....don't go telling anybody just yet though!

one more day, then I think everything would be all but set in stone . . . or ice

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

GFS 00Z colder 850's never really get into extreme South/South East!

Adjustments South likely?

-7 / -8 widely across the SE - not as cold as those further north but would still ensure anything that falls from the sky will be white and provide impetus for convective snowfall

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Well I’m lost for words . Upgrades in the short term upgrades in the long term . What Mega output this morning. 
 

Them snow depth chats are incredible. 

Well if that doesn't create streamers galore then I don't know what will. Could be some remarkable snow depths by midweek

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

Me too, I think my husband is beginning to think I'm having an affair...every time I sit down I stick my head in my phone to look at this thread or the models!

My missus doesn't like me looking at model on my phone either.

Mind you, they're probably a different kind altogether . . .

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Evening Chaps and Chapessess

Have had a nice 10 day break but will be around for the latter part of the weekend onwards to enjoy the radar watching and to report on any streamers that set up.

Have been watching Scandi cool off these past 2 weeks and my posts from Mid Jan did say to watch the area to our North East admittedly I thought the last few days of January but 1 week off wasnt bad in the end.

A couple of things still worrying me about longevity of the spell, firstly on other notable spells we usually have a good week of ground frosts and freezing fog to freeze up the surface but this time it looks like snow will fall onto muddy and wet soil which could make the snowpack struggle to stay around as long as it should so my advice is if the models continue with the southwards shift with Saturday into sundays risk is to go out and enjoy it sunday afternoon as there are a couple of models showing a milder wedge that could turn it marginal from Sunday night into Monday night. But the good news is it looks like a renewed push of better uppers comes in from Tuesday into Thursday for round 2.

There will in the end be a pest from the west trying to break the stubborn block down and that could again be fun and games but that is way too far ahead to worry about at this time.

Will be great to count this down as we now have absolute model agreement on the coldest spell of the winter ahead

if we don't get something out of this i'm finding a new hobby !!

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

After all the panic over the last 48 from the southeasterners!!there you go there was no need lol!!

much more southward movement and it'll become a Kent clipper

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Is there any chance of a thames streamer setting up across south London we normally do quite well thanks.

Yes, there is every chance provided there is a sufficient ene/e feed (which there is forecast to be)

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

I'll be happy to join in with some streamers.

You should be in a good place

 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

14 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

You'll have to englighten me here?

 

Surely careering the Atlantic low pressure system into the existing Easterly cold air would provide a nationwide snow event, rather than sending it to the North of France to retain us in an Easterly which is less likely to provide a nationwide snow event? 

Because the 850's are nowhere near low enough, you've got a system passing over a warm Atlantic which will not offer any assistance in lower those figures. Yes, there could be frontal snow but it would not be the snowmageddon you visualise.

Unless you have some serious altitude.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

3 minutes ago, Biggin said:

And Streamers, dont forget streamers. Or is that what you mean SB ?

that's exactly what i mean, Steve

Streamers are the product of convection 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

6 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Bringing the low pressure across the country for a huge snowy breakdown, why would I be joking?

You might want to check the 850's

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

9 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I know it’s probably good enough but it’s not exactly -8/-10 which would reassure me much more

I respect and understand that - i'd be very surprised if it would be anything other than snow.

Let's hope it disappears altogether on subsequent runs then we won't have to worry at all 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Widely 3-4 “ of snow on the ground by Monday evening and that’s only 36hrs into the cold spell! ..

Totals in the SE would likely be somewhat higher with any convectional snowfall having taken place

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

It’s like pulling teeth trying to get the clean flow to Kent without risk of marginality or mild sectors though. For God’s sake.. 

Mild sector ? You mean the sector showing -4 uppers in an easterly flow ?

No marginality there i'd have thought. All snow.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hmmm, the mild sector there for Monday on EC, hope not a wintry mix/wet snow? Thurs 24th Feb '05 horror

 

Showing -4 uppers in a mostly insignificantly sized sector - hardly 'mild' and unlikely to have much of a bearing, if any, on precipitation type.

It should be all snow

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

12z GFS is similar to the 00z ECM in that it brings a wrap around warm sector into the SE.

Its *just* about cold enough for it to still snow for most, but its very borderline indeed! The 00z ECM was rain, the 12z GFS looks just about good enough for snow, though I'd say those on coasts would struggle in such a flow.

The flow afterwards is amazingly unstable though, would see widespread snow showers after that marginal period on Monday, Tuesday in particular looked very snowy on that GFS run.

 

Yes, appears to be somewhat troublesome but there should be enough cold 850's to mix out the warm sector and produce snow

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Only if the low to the west move SE lol.

Almost perfect

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Only if the low to the west move SE lol.

Every chance it will - next 48/72 hours will be telling

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Absolute filth

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

This should steady some nerves

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

12 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Also thought the way they mentioned in the MO forecast that this was no 2018 BFTE may help to temper expectations 

Good luck with that one in here