Filski

Just reading quickly, the tidal effect on the great lakes in the USA is in the order of ~5cm. I guess I was thinking if the magma was connected to a much larger body, directly to that below the mantle for example. Even so, it is unlikely to be linked to as large a body as the lakes. I did find this just now however. Not sure if it's been linked previously. Interesting read about the potential source of the earthquakes but gives no indication of a possible eruption trigger. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~ekstrom/Projects/EQS/Iceland/

This is very much happening on a 24hr cycle, similar times to yesterday. I expect this is related to tidal forces on the magma which, if correct, infers repeated flexing and relaxing at that point.

Just eyeballing things, overall quake frequency seems to be dropping off everywhere except Bárðarbunga which continues its pattern of 4+ quakes. Another one just now.

Img 14 - looks like a mini-tornado to the right http://photos.gudmann.is/#!/index/G0000VHvgRsUlb5M/I0000vkYnJnNO8mc Img 13 has a number of small vortices showing, heat induced no doubt. http://photos.gudmann.is/#!/index/G0000VHvgRsUlb5M/I0000EVwWHY3JDLQ

Well that is interesting. Frequency seems to be picking up. We need a flight over the caldera to see if there are signs of dropping.

5.0 in the BARDARBUNGA area just a little while ago.

Another one under Bard - around 4.

A giant ash cloud is affecting some flights to and from Australia following a major eruption of the Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea. Satellite imagery shows the plume has reached a height of about 18 kilometres, indicating a significant eruption. Commercial flights typically cruise at altitudes of between nine and 12 kilometres and the Bureau of Meteorology has issued an advisory to airlines indicating where the cloud is likely to spread. "The initial low-level ash is moving northwards, but as it gets a bit higher it's likely to spread out both to the north and south along the western side of the volcano," said Craig Earl-Spurr, meteorologist at the bureau's Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. The bureau will continue to monitor the plume as it dissipates. Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-planning/travel-news/qantas-reroutes-flights-as-pngs-rabaul-volcano-erupts-20140829-109utz.html#ixzz3BkDm15ea

You can see how much melt has occurred over the past couple of days compared to that quoted above. The area of the lake showing signs of melt is increasing quickly too, suggesting significant temp rises on the left side.

Some of my own checking indicates the rock came from the direction of the rover, flipped upside down by a wheel seems most likely.

I left the UK a few years ago to return to Oz, it's true that Australia is experiencing record heat for pretty much all of 2013. It's not isolated maxima either, winter minima on average was well above normal and the Sept/ Oct heatwave has led to bushfires of unusual intensity for so early in the season. Bushfires can happen anytime of course, all that is needed is a match and some dry material. But there are bushfires that burn slowly during the cooler months and bushfires that are fanned on hot westerlies in late summer with a roasting continent interior and parched bushland. The latter is very unexpected in October, and hearing of 200 homes being destroyed at this time of year is... well... unheard of previously. The culprit has been a lack of rain at a time that normally sees plenty (especially with IOD and ENSO as they are) - surface groundwater is very low and the bush has the benefit of several years of solid growth and lack of back burning - and a warmer than usual interior that produced westerlies with higher temps than normally found at this time of year. Normally I'd rate it as just a variable weather pattern but, as noted before, ENSO and IOD should be seeing cooler and wetter weather than we have had.

Point to remember is that the sun is getting lower and lower. I'm curious as to how low this year will get and looking back what will the causes be pinned upon. There's nothing that I can remember that makes this year stand out weather wise (apart from current storm) so that says something about the state of the ice heading into the summer. Looking at where we are now promises a dreadful melt season next year... Another step change year is looking increasingly likely.

Early prediction, along the lines of the lateness of the maximum extent reached, is that this will level off soon and probably not set a record minimum but still be one of the lowest 3 or 4 yrs on record. Since 2007 in particular this seems to be a trend, unless I'm imagining it: late maximum extents are followed by early rapid melt with a gradually reduction of rate. It looks pretty bad now but will be back with the group by late august if not earlier. Of course that fact that each new 4-5yr period we pass sets a new lowest 4-5yr period is of concern. Seasonal ice free arctic is some way off though.

Are the delays in updates due to cloud cover or is the multiple 'skijumps' (leveling out for a few days) a correction in data? Seems to me this year is entering new territory and the need for accuracy is paramount, hence data is being delayed so it can be checked.

Ummm... hi folks. Just to correct a few errors for those in Blighty (my 2nd home). There are no crocs that far south, except maybe at Australia Zoo where they are tying them up in case they try to escape. No need to worry about them when crossing a stream! Snakes are a different story though. Canetoads are not so poisonous that they'll kill you if you look sideways at them. They are fine to be handled as long as you wash your hands. Flood height of 20m - Ipswich, not Brisbane where the peak will be 4-4.5m. Brisbane has a lot more than 27000 homes, maybe the 1/3 applies to Ipswich as well. More impressive is the rate at which the Wivenhoe dam has filled today - 1cm a minute and its a massive dam! Currently sitting at 175%+ of capacity. The 100% is town storage needs, it has 125% extra to deal with such emergencies. Even so it is about 1m from being next to useless and they have had to let increasing amounts through to protect the dam wall. Good info over on weatherzone, netweather for downunder.

Whoa, settle. Past melt rates are not a precuror to future melt rates GW. If we were to measure apples with apple then on April figures we'd be seeing further signs of a 'recovery'. But we are not, faster than normal rates have prevailed to now and, with some 2+months left to the melt season, we have a numpty calling an early autumn? Please, common sense. Patience on both sides is required. While we wait to see where this winds up (and for mine it would appear that bottom 2 or 3 is a dead cert) we won't know where the final figure will fall for sure just yet. That's not to say it isn't worth worrying about, especially after the last 18-24mths with no clear signs of a recovery.

10" in Reading, 8 in Kent... Geez, where's my dummy so I can spit it out! Congrats to those who got it, hope there's a last bit left in winter for us in London.

Have to say I'm a bit disappointed. London misses out again. Was hoping for 1 more sled in Greenwich park before moving home to Oz.

Sleet in Greenwich, with biggish flakes when the wind picks up.

Feb 2009 saw sheet ice hanging around for days in London. Not as long as Jan admittedly but still a decent prospect if a couple of inches can settle.

Curious, GFS continues to prog a risk of snow this evening in the SE. Light precip is shown inside the next 48hrs too. I know it's too warm but it is mizzling out there now. Just how marginal is the snow risk in the early part of the week and will this marginality continue to be a factor leading up to Wed/Thurs. Dew points are too high so why the continued snow risk?

To be fair you are mostly correct. However a streamer coming off the estuary can deliver in extremely localised areas depending on winds at the time. A few weeks ago it looked good for south London on the models inside of 24hrs but ended up only 10's km south (cue yamkin). If there is any sort of feature in the channel it could mean north, south or central areas miss out or get hit depending on about 15' variation in wind direction. Feb 09 was well predicted but the one before that... (a Sun in Oct 08?) was strictly a case of waking up to see a dusting outside and 15cm in the park an hour later. At the moment it's not possible to talk about snow in any area, except in very generalised terms... yet. To be honest I don't know how you lot deal with it. I've learnt more from lurking in here in 4 yrs than in all the time in Oz watching weather.

Still waiting and watching. It seems like every year we get dream charts and the cold is nailed on outside of 7days. Then the flipside comes and throws up the reverse until everyone throws their hands up and says anything beyond 72hrs is FI. At some point between the dream charts and 72hrs the true pattern is invariably shown and generally disappears as quickly. We generally have little way of knowing until the pattern actually starts and so far a bit can still change. So at this point with people saying that there are few hurdles in the way I'm not getting my hopes up for more than a few frosty nights and clear days in Greenwich. We missed out on the best of the Jan spell so we'd deserve a turn now... but I'll hedge my bets until probably Sun before I unpack the toboggan for Greenwich park. Even then a Thames Streamer would give less than 6hrs notice! Just on that note I hope the wobble occurred between last Fri and Tues and we're seeing the correct pattern now

I've noticed http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/united_kingdom.html

Light snow again from the blob that went through. Can't complain, still mostly white everywhere.