Joe Snow

18z should come with a health warning. Just some Friday night fun for now... but the potential for somewhere in the UK to get a dumping of snow that would make a 5/10 Winter so far a memorable one is there for sure but pinpointing where is going to be tricky anywhere from Scotland to the Channel Islands & N of France now though

Day 10 Well knowing the North West's luck it'll be a cold rain and sleet fest or not even materialise at all like the phantom January blizzard Quietly confident of something colder with some snowy surprises before the end of Feb and meteorological Winter though. We shall see...

Gorgeous Sunset tonight lots of nice pinks & burnt orange colours. February might bring some surprises but I’m really not believing any snow charts till at least 48hrs out - as a region we’ve done well from the scraps of snow this winter has delivered both in early Dec & Mid January, will it be a case of third time lucky?

Disgusting evening, heading across East Cheshire back from Macclesfield heavy driving rain and a cold feeling gusty wind, quite a bit of surface flooding too ️

North of the region seems to have seen the heaviest of the rain but a dark dreary day all round - heavy bursts of rain alternating with drizzle and a drier spell this afternoon, moderate rain currently, 12c the max daytime temp so thankfully not as chilly in the south of the region as forecast by some models ️

Another cloudy, quiet day here quite drab really Tomorrow looks a wet & chilly affair for the region with heavy rain around a real January kind of Monday, the ‘very mild’ weather far to our SE. Cold enough perhaps even for some wintryness over high ground in the N of the region.

@iand61 If we end up under a stalling rain band it’ll likely be a wet & cold feeling day latest GFS 12z has highest temp of 9c in the early hours of Monday - highest daytime temps are hovering between 6-7c so will feel chilly under persistent rain and somewhat at odds to the 11- 12c forecast by the BBC & Met Office. Will be interesting to see how it develops somewhere could get a washout day.

Whilst eyes are on a potential Feb cold spell - Monday looks like a potential rainfall event slipping below the radar quite a lot of persistent at times heavy rain forecast that we don’t want or need ️

It’s a shame we couldn’t have held onto the Winter sunshine of yesterday but as others have said a usable, quiet kind of weather weekend. Monday looks potentially a rainy affair before turning very mild mid-late week before turning perhaps progressively colder as we go into the 2nd week of Feb. Aside from the BFTE in late Feb 2018 notable February cold spells have been few and far between in recent years - the easterly in Feb 2021 wasn’t anything special here cold, raw & grey with polystyrene snow grains in the wind kind of set up. You then have to go even further back to early Feb 2012 which saw us catching the edge of a European cold wave bringing us some snow, Feb 2010 also was cold & snowy at times following on from the bitter January (I remember a deep right side of marginal snowfall for these parts mid-late month of that year) and early Feb 2009 brought snowfall although nowhere near the very heavy deep snow seen in the SE that year. So it’ll be interesting to see if Feb is a boom or bust in regards to a cold end to winter - the earlier we can establish any cold & snow potential the better tbh as even with a stunning BFTE set up you are fighting a rapidly strengthening sun post Feb half term kind of time for any long lasting snow cover, ice day kind of cold to low levels... Peaks & Pennines don’t see that effect really till mid March. The drip drip 10cm of snow at breakfast, nothing but slush by lunchtime kind of snowfall is a habit of low ground snow events in late Feb into March.

A much windier night than forecast associated with the squall line pushing through. Some really wild gusts

Days are still short, not noticeably longer till late Feb really but they have felt spring like compared to last weeks winter chill 1st/2nd Feb have flagged up as potentially very/ record breaking mild 15-16c in recent model output so one to watch to see if date records fall. Don't think Winter is done with us yet though and like we found out last year and notably so in the past decade late Feb into March can bring colder than average wintry conditions back across us and for some time.

@A Face like Thunder Think it might have been Rostherne that recorded the 15.4c got to 14.5c here in Sandbach. Very mild all the same a very windy evening Jocelyn sounding at least windier than Isha here too some big gusts the past half hour or so.

14.5c from deep Winter last week to an October like day today ️ A mild if not very mild start to February looking likely too - wasn’t 1998 the very mild El Niño Feb that went against the whole back loaded El Niño Winter theory?

Some strong gusts between 11pm-12/1am last night but thankfully the south of the region was sheltered from the wrath of Storm Isha - no such luck for North Lancs northwards & in particular for Ireland, Scotland, West Wales & the IOM that saw the worst of Isha. Let’s see what Storm Jocelyn brings - it must be despite the early Dec & mid Jan cold snaps the stormiest autumn/ winter season since the infamous Winter 2013/14? Or maybe it just feels like that! ️ Today has been a breezy day, winds notably increasing locally this afternoon with a blustery shower mid afternoon not especially mild but not especially cold either. Can’t see anything particularly changing until mid Feb at the earliest now alternating between mild, very mild or close to average daytime temp wise with a more settled signal into early Feb.

Ireland seem to be getting hammered would be nice if we could get away with it ‘just’ being a wet & windy night but not quite so sure yet particularly for the coast, North Lancs & Cumbria. Worst could be still to come.

We’ll see what happens overnight but yeah not as strong a storm as forecast currently here just a wet & windy night but I don’t want to speak too soon as the peak is due over the next few hrs and we could get stung by some nasty gusts yet despite Cheshire’s relative shelter from the SW ️ Well at least it’s not snow ending up not as much as expected for once!

Have seen a similar lull in the past hour things are gradually picking up again now though as a pulse of heavier rain moves through. Worst of the winds are forecast between 9pm-12midnight Took a glance at the latest radar and what looks to be a squall line looks to be moving out of Ireland towards us.

Wind picking up here and has been doing since early afternoon - Amber Wind Warning doesn’t kick in till 18:00 with forecast peak of the winds between 9pm & 12 midnight-1am across the NW.

AMBER upgraded wind warning from 18:00-06:00 tonight

Red Irish Met Warnings now just issued for the west & North West Coastal counties of Ireland. Widespread damage, disruption & power cuts likely for a part of the world that’s no stranger to Atlantic storms. Back in the UK I wonder whether we’ll see a nationwide upgrade to Amber I should think so given the potential for disruption into Monday mornings rush hour - latest GFS 00z gives peak winds up to 70mph here in inland NW England between 9pm & midnight tonight ️

All eyes on Storm Isha tomorrow, winds already getting up here but winding the clock back to 20th Jan 2021, 3 yrs ago tonight and Storm Christoph’s heavy rain turned to very heavy snow over the region leaving 8-9cm here in S Cheshire in just a few hrs still the best heavy rain- snow event I’ve ever seen locally Let’s hope some cold, snowy weather returns for February

06z upgrades slightly Storm Isha’s winds up to 70mph here tomorrow night into the early hrs of Monday - might see further extensions to the Amber Warning area tomorrow if we continue to see any further upgrades.

Looks to be on a par with Storm Ciara in Feb 2020 - a nasty storm with squall line here ️

Funny how the rain never struggles to find us here in the NW a much milder drizzly start - its a real shame the cold weather couldn’t have held on for the weekend as it is doing in the States They next week also are seeing a big warm up though from the big freeze they have been in this past week going against the myth that the UK & USA/ Canada can’t be cold at the same time, Washington DC seeing freezing -3c highs today, 16c/ 17c by the middle of next week.

Here in Cheshire we had a few wet cm so imagine MCR saw similar. High ground to the west and east saw the majority of the 'proper' snow I think.