[Model banter and emotions]

 Chasbrown for you maybe. August here, although not special, I spent most of it on the beach. September was lush. 

 steveinsussex meteorological winter is 1st dec - end of feb

[Model banter and emotions]

 LRD March is the new Feb. Adamant the seasons have shifted a month on. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Remember the days of watching the farmers weekly forecast on the beeb on a Sunday and if it didn’t show cold for the week then the depression would be for 10 mins and I’d move on and wait for next Sunday. Looking at models every 6 hours to show the same doom and  gloom is no good for your mental health. I get it’s the model discussion thread but having a meltdown over a chart that’s over a week away isn’t helping some people. 
 

2013 was best case scenario. Didn’t look at any models at all for 10 days and 2 days before we got the big channel low snowstorm a colleague at work said ‘you must be happy, snow soon I see!’  The joy when I went online to look at the gfs. 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

1 hour ago, Chesil View said:

All models seemingly going for pressure to rise to our east towards months end.

Yet as the various models suggestions show.

When it comes to advecting cold/snowy conditions towards our shores The exact position and orientation of a Scandi high is absolutely crucial.

Scandi Highs are a high risk but not always high reward scenario for the UK.

 

I’d take it over a Greenland high any day of the week….

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Going for a nap. Wake me up in 2 weeks. I expect good news !!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

March 2012 comes to mind when a channel runner paid out.

The channel Isles were hammered and the snow petered out as you got  inland ( Tunbrudge Wells had very little) but Hastings  ground to a halt.

It will be a middle ground again I think, GFS probably too far Nirth and others too far South.

They will meet in the middle.

Hiring a boat and enjoying a mid channel snow party anyone?

2013. Splitting hairs I know. !

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2013 slide through northern France please. You know it’ll correct south

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I’m going to hire a boat for the south members.

I’ll let you know how we get on ! I got work till 11pm so the drive home could be fun !

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

2 hours ago, stewfox said:

Agreed best I can find next 10 days is  sleet on 18th. Nothing remotely matching the excitement of the model thread. There has never been any cross model agreement for deep cold.

Daily Express on board final nail in the coffin

Just like their weather warnings, everything is last minute. Why ? Imagine the panic if they said ‘next week the uk hits the freezer’. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Aprege 

If that channel streamer does indeed setup it’ll be snow for us. We do really well with those. Some of our best snowfalls from them. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

13 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

I too couldn't find John Kettley... BUT here's Ian Mccaskill bigging up the cold & snow back in Jan 1987...

This current set-up just feels exactly like what led us to this... 

 

I was 6 at the time. Remember my Mum frantically waking me up at 2am to show the snow falling. Had a lamp post right outside the house and can still remember the thickest flakes coming down. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

What would the temperature be on the ground please?

Flip flops unsuitable……..

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, Flub136 said:

Yup. Not the best time of the year to live in the English Channel, Always clobbered by heavy winds and warm air

Don’t see it personally. Certainly not 10.  But tbf I don’t rate them as it is. Remember the snow warning of 2018? 30 mins then rain ! 2022 warning wasn’t much better either. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, Flub136 said:

I'll take that, being down in Jersey! About time we saw some of the white stuff here. 2013 since anything noticeable.

I see your Met office has issued us f10 this evening !

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

One of my favourite spells, the powder snow even made it to Merseyside, closing schools for a lovely nice long weekend of sledging!

We had a foot of snow here. Was incredible. Riding home from school was fun

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Embarrassing - using old data

Remember. It needs to remain impartial. Gotta keep the summer people happy so it’s a halfway house…….. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

21 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Oh man stop it my IBS is startin to play up again as im getting nervous after that run from the icon!!im just farting away right now lol and on the edge!!!!need gfs to improve asap!!!!!stilll trying to hold it down from my end wary of being let down again but we are still in it somehow!!!!gfs running......

If it helps, I’ve just eaten 10 sprouts…..

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

I’m not really one to trust the gfs. It was showing a nice easterly as close as 3 days away back in November, out on its own, before it majorly backed down. I think it’s only good for predicting zonal conditions where zonal is already in place. And even then it’ll ‘dartboard’ a lot of low pressures. It’s good at showing easterlies in full on FI, but dire in 5-10 day frames. Just my opinion of course.   

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Control is snowy 

And cold 

Perfect for a dumping in the channel. Bank that. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Very nimby 

Also very funny cause even here we had snow . 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Zero interest in chasing a greeny high. Never works out. Unless I’m seeing a Scandi high and a Genoa low then I won’t get any hopes up !!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

9 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

 The reason  is because it has been nearly 20 years since I last experienced a white Christmas.  I would normally be more optimistic, but given  the current guidance it 's not look likely we will see a white Christmas.  I appreciate that could  change but then surely we would  be seeing signs of it in the extended . All the indications so far are for a northern toppler that could deliver to some areas, but any cold is likely to be transient in that scenario.  I will get over not having a white Christmas, if we get a proper cold spell during what's left of peak winter. 

Try 36!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, johncam said:

Got to ask then , why are so many on here presuming it's going to turn colder when the met with all the info at hand aren't. Asking for a friend. 

Imagine if the Met released that statement. The meltdown in the tabloids would be incredible! They’d cause huge panic.  And then if it didn’t happen they’d be hammered by the same tabloids. Not worth the hassle. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The beebs forecasts have been woeful for a number of years now.

Models totally struggled with Thursdays low. How anything past Friday is to be believed is anyone’s guess. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

I'm holding off for now

Snap. I curse it always. Right now, Inside I got a brass band playing but my face is showing a stifled yawn !