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Snowboy111

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    Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowboy111

    8 minutes ago, Noob said:

    Im not sure what too think now, charts say one thing, met updates seems too say the opposite other than cold is nailed on. They seem to be pro's at sitting on the fence and they are meant to be the experts or am i assuming too much ?

    Nothing worse than a ‘Pro’ with egg on their face. Cards close to the chest an all that. 

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I think you've got about as much chance of meaningful snowfall in Guernsey and Jersey as we have of Jim Nettles returning to front Bergerac.

    Dare I say it folks...a massive massive ECM 12Z in just under an hour..it could be the biggest since the one last night,and be even potentially bigger come tomorrow night!

    Popcorn at the ready...cue the Eastenders drum roll.. dum dum ,dum dum Dummer dum.

     

    Jim ?? That his twin brother ? 😜

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowboy111

    Well that’s the final nail in the coffin!! Gonna be some miserable people on here today. 20 years of being on here I’ve learnt a few things along the way. 
     

    1. Never get too excited until t48

    2. Everyone is an amateur on here, nothing should be taken as gospel.

    3. If you’re offended by number 2, then it’s cause the weather is the weather and it’ll do whatever it wants to do not what you hope or think it’ll do ! I’ve seen enough ‘pros’ come and go on this site, many with their tails between their legs. It’s one thing to discuss outcomes and it’s another to say ‘dead cert it’ll happen’ and then get your back up when it goes wrong ! The ‘bin it’ attitude needs to change  


    4. The various models are still really quite poor when it comes to cold. Why there are so many it just seems pointless. Especially as half get written off as fodder as soon as the 6 hour update comes out. Should be 2/3 max. Waste of money. 
     

    5. Global warming is killing history. People reference ‘47 an ‘63. Forget it. We’ll never get a repeat of those as the climate has massively shifted in the last 10/15 years alone. 
     

    Today will hurt but it’s nothing new. I don’t want knife edge stuff, I want a scandi high and med low. That’s our best and most reasonable chance for cold and snow

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    One heck of an event that was! Absolute pasting you lot got down there. I was in Portsmouth on that day and it was like caster sugar blowing in one of the most coldest winds I’ve ever experienced, with exception to the BFTE. A day I’ll never forget. Hope we see similar this winter. 

    ‘‘Twas incredible. The flat north of Guernsey got about 6 inches. The ‘hilly’ south, which at peak is 108m asl, got 12-14 inches with snow drifts as high as 14ft !!! So many trees blew down too as we had a force 7 NE. All you could hear was chain saws for days after.
     

    The best thing about that storm too was I’d given up on chart looking a week prior so ha paid no attention to what was coming. Then a mate said 2 days before it happened ‘corr you must be excited for the upcoming snow?’ to which I replied ‘no idea what you’re on about!!’ I then looked on here and nearly passed out !! Sometimes it’s much better to be surprised than have your nerves wrecked for a week model watching !!

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Have you noticed how difficult this weather forecasting lark seems to becoming now we have literally unhindered access to the Internet and nearly as much data has the pros! Hell if we choose to pay a little extra we can even get as much as them. The ceefax were posted last night from back in the day,and wow that took me back....I used to view them with eager anticipation at the thought of cold and snow...you would get these Battleground scenarios being highlighted on them with rain and snow moving into the SW and this quickly turning to snow as it moved inland...then you would be constantly viewing the temps towards Cornwall just to see if the milder air was encroaching behind the front....every hour on the hour you would check to see how much progress that warmer air had made Northwards,and be willing it to grind to a halt.

    Then you would view the great countryfile forecast with the legendary Bill Gates, Ian mcaskill and the like for the week ahead..and as soon as those magic words came out of their mouths at the beginning of the broadcast....with its a cold week ahead and snow could be a factor for many...wow the buzz,the excitement. And tbh given how far back it was,there were some pretty dam good forecasts..many a time in the past they would point out a potential snow event come the end of the forecasted 5 day period and it would be spot on. We had no Internet access to guide us whatsoever back then..for me it was a case of a sketch set and pencils with me drawing my own version of events for the week ahead,and I would see how close I could be with the forecast...and guess what I had a major cold bias even then,so my charts were nearly always based around scandy Heights...an Estly feed...and the under cutting scenario from the Atlantic fronts...grinding to a halt everytime.

    Seriously guys forecasting was such a joy back then and there was a hell of a lot less stress involved with it all.. there was nobody who could ridicule you for making a complete balls up of the forecast,unlike now where we can get smashed to pieces on social media for saying the wrong thing,or something that others don't agree with!

    The point in all of this...weather should be fun and exciting to follow and too give your self a chance of compiling your own thoughts,but without the stress of upsetting yourself if it goes wrong...and absolutely nobody should have the right to put you down for having a go.

    If Nostradamus was alive now I'm sure he would have a thing to say about the Internet age!

    Here's to a good winter and very happy and healthy new year for all.

    57259a55d73a8f148d62d1270cae5dca--the-prophecy-le-monde.jpg

    I liked how they always rolled out certain presenters for certain weather. You knew snow was in the air when Giles, macCaskill, Kettley and McElwee. Nowadays you know bang average or none eventful is on the cards when Stav Danos or Simon king is on. Not sure on the snow presenters these days ? Avery maybe ?

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