Supacell

Got up this morning to find that BBC forecasts are now putting out thunderstorms in eastern areas tonight into tomorrow. Looks very much like an MCS system moving up from the near continent. Rainfall rates look to be very high and BBC forecast mentioned up to 2 inches of rain likely!!! GFS support this but show very little CAPE. Nick you mention elevated storms over mid level clouds, does this mean any lightning will be hidden or are these the type of storms that produce good lightning displays?

Awesome photos Paul - you're making me very envious. Hope you get to see something good tomorrow. :lol:

And (as per usual) the 12z has seriously downgraded thunderstorm potential for Friday!

The real problem could be a lack of moisture and a strong Cap if the HP persists. Although the met office seem to think that there will be isolated thundery showers in the south east on Friday as a trough and a thundery low moves close to the southeast, they have been saying this since the weekend. Its yet another knife edge situation whereby there could be quite a few storms, just the odd ones clipping the south east or nothing at all. I feel we need to develop an E'ly or SE'ly to drive the trough this way. If we keep the NE'ly then it will all stay to our south and east. I'll be watching the charts closely over the coming runs!

I'm too far West here. Best thing to do if you want to check if lightning is around is put AM radio on. If lightning strikes it crackles!

Sure looks like some heavy rain though no sferics showing, could it be anaprop?

I'm going to stick my neck out and say there is a chance of some heavy showers and one or two scattered thunderstorms later on today (probably from 6pm to midnight) in eastern parts. Around 300J/KG of CAPE is projected to coincide with some pretty high temperatures. My feeling is that GFS have under done these temps and 23-25C seems more likely. Dew points will be at between 16 and 18C. The trigger will be a line of wind convergence as seen below. Areas at risk are Lincolnshire, East Midlands and down to areas such as Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire.

Is there any chance of storms breaking out in the east tomorrow as the front moving in from the West hits the warm air (temps up to 25C according to BBC weather)? I've noticed there is some wind convergence and a great deal of vert velocity but LI doesn't look too impressive. Dew Points 16/17C.

Well i have seen 3 thunderstorms today, not in Derby though - all in Nottinghamshire. The first storm was just to the SW of Newark and it dropped a few CGs. After the storm there was flooding on minor roads. The second storm was somewhere else between Newark and Mansfield - this produced frequent CGs for about 10 mins then seemed to die. Bit disappointed though as my footage just shows flashes and not the actual shape of the CGs. The third storm contained pea sized hail and really heavy rainfall but only saw one flash of lightning - this was near to Ollerton. All in all a good chase day.

Roger, thanks for that - very informative and helpful. Maybe a case of keeping a look at forecasts then and going last minute when it looks to be likely for storms to occur. If i decide to go i will PM you for any information/forecasts you can help me with before i go. I am hoping storms can be more accurately predicted ahead in the USA as opposed to the UK whereby storms predicted for 2 days ahead end up not materialising. The last thing you would want is to go out to be under clear blue skies for the duration!!! Beka - i believe you are probably right. I know that the monsoon storms occur as warm humid air from the gulf meets the mountains to the south of Arizona with storms forming here quite early and then moving into the deserts during the afternoon. There may also be less of a CAP around Tucson due to it being closer to this occurrence over the mountains. If the CAP is stronger though then i believe when its broken it will produce storms of greater intensity than if the CAP was weaker and so stronger storms will occur over Phoenix than Tucson. I maybe wrong but i'm sure i heard this when reading up about the CAP and the severity of storms in Australia.

Yes sure - a few here http://geography.asu.edu/aztc/monsoon.html (I found this one to be very informative) http://phoenix.about.com/cs/weather/a/monsoon01.htm http://www.weatherpix.com/Arizona.htm (some good pics on this one) http://www.stormchasers.co.uk/ (check out the third article down, i have emailed this guy for more information too)

I'm like you - lack of money means i have never yet been able to afford to go out storm chasing. And the companies that offer tours are charging about $1700 cheapest rate for 6 days chasing in tornado alley. Add to this air fares, food, spending money etc and its a 2 grand trip for just 6 days. Imagine the disappointment if you shelled out that much just to find you went in a week where high pressure prevented any storms from occurring!!! I did read the text alongside the pics, plus i have read a lot more about the Arizona storms - if anything they interest me more than tornadoes as lightning is my true interest. Of course there is still the possibility of paying money to go there and then see nothing - which is why i was trying to find out if the storms are a little more reliable than in tornado alley (with it being a monsoon). From what you say about your other half it may be that they are not - although it depends what time of the year he was over there. So, next stage is how we can administer drugs to Paul or Nick without them noticing!

Thanks for that Paul, she really has taken some fantastic shots! I really would love to see lightning like that which is what is the pull for me to go. Having never been to the USA before though i am just a bit wary of going out there on my own with little knowledge of the place.

Hi I have been reading up a bit on the monsoon thunderstorms that affect the SW of the USA - more specifically Arizona, New Mexico & Nevada and then up into Utah and Colorado. Apparently the storms there produce some of the best lightning shows on the planet. I need to give more thought to the idea but i'm thinking i may take a trip over there this year. Although i've found plenty of literature on this event i cannot find anything relating to the reliability of storms in this area. This is what i'm hoping some of you can help me with. I am hoping to pick the vast knowledge on this site for any information you may have, or anything you've heard. I would particularly like information from anyone who has experienced the Monsoon storms themselves. What i am wondering is are they reliable events, much like the indian monsoons, or are they more like tornado alley where its a bit of a lottery as to whether or not anything will happen whilst you are over there? I'm also interested in details of how you get internet connections in the USA and petrol/food/accomodation costs etc.... this is something you guys who have just been to the US may be able to help me with. As i said its just a thought at the moment but if i do go i'll be happy to report back with my findings.

Incredible shot, must have been awesome to see it in real life!

Tornado showing up on estofex as a red triangle!

Good pics Steve. That first one shows that real green tint - which i've been told is indicative of hail!

Thanks for the explanations guys.

Another piece of footage of the Greensburg tornado. Its at night so not good visibility but the tornado is clearly showing up each time the lightning strikes! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZRkK-gLmnE Interestingly the purple glitches you see (which are not lightning) happened to me once when i was filming a severe thunderstorm at night over nearby Nottinghamshire last year and also last June in the day whilst filming a storm near Hull. Does anyone know if a thunderstorm can affect video equipment??? Another good piece of footage.

Great pics again guys. Thanks for keeping us updated - its been a interesting read these past few days - keep it up and have fun.

Great photos, wish i was there too. :lol:

I'm going to go with 13.5. I would've gone warmer but for the fact i think night time temps could be quite cool (with a distinct lack of any proper cloud under persistent HP) bringing the numbers down. Weather for May will be sunny and warm days, cool and clear nights with very little exception.

Here in Derby there was a little rain on Monday and again for about an hour on Tuesday last week - but it was just of the drizzly kind, so probably clocked about 1-2mm!!! According to long range forecasts the HP we have had over us is set to hold with May being another month with very low rainfall and above average temperatures. What does this mean for the water situation???

I have recorded 0mm of rain so far this month. I think we had some light drizzle one morning earlier in the month but it barely wet the ground.

Today is officially the first 20C day of the year. Not here but around the south coast.