BruenSryan

Bumping this so @Weather Monkey can read about Winter 1995-96 for his curiosity. It's also the most recent solar minimum winter with a transitioning west to east QBO.

Cool and sunny any day. Couldn't care about temperature as long as it's sunny. Cloudy and cool, warm and cloudy... muck!

Probably another ridiculously warm autumn like every other. 1993 was the last true cold autumn. I wouldn't regard 2012 as a particularly cold autumn especially in the frost department.

Whilst some models continue to churn out some extraordinarily warm synoptics for next week (in terms of 850hPa temperatures), here's some of the warmest 850hPa temperature synoptics for the UK from the past. Thanks to @WorldClimateSvc on Twitter in helping me find some of these! Have you discovered any others? Feel free to post them. 7th Sep 1988 19th Jun 2000 5th Aug 2003 10th Aug 2003

Winter Best: 2010/11 Worst: 2012/13 Spring Best: 2011 Worst: 2013 Summer Best: 2018 Worst: 2012 Autumn Best: 2010 Worst: 2017 January Best: 2010 Worst: 2013 February Best: 2019 Worst: 2012 March Best: 2012 Worst: 2013 April Best: 2011 Worst: 2017 May Best: 2017 Worst: 2015 June Best: 2018 Worst: 2012 July Best: 2013 Worst: 2012 August Best: 2010 Worst: 2011 September Best: 2015 Worst: 2017 October Best: 2018 Worst: 2011 November Best: 2010 Worst: 2018 December Best: 2010 Worst: 2018 Annual Best: 2010 Worst: 2015

Would your worst September not be 2016?

Here in Dublin, Ireland (figures from Dublin Airport data by Met Éireann), it hasn't been exceptionally sunny due to a few dull months. May 2018: 224.0 hrs (116%) - May 2017 was a little sunnier Jun 2018: 268.6 hrs (155%) - sunniest June since 1957 (third sunniest on record) and month since August 1995 Jul 2018: 182.5 hrs (111%) - on par with July 2014 (182.8 hrs) but not as sunny as July 2013 (237.0 hrs) for recent comparisons Aug 2018: 121.5 hrs (77%) - August 2017 was relatively duller. August 2010 was my last sunnier than average August (with 216.0 hrs) and also most recent August to record at least 200 hrs. Sep 2018: 136.2 hrs (106%) Oct 2018: 120.6 hrs (117%) - sunniest October since 2010 Nov 2018: 50.2 hrs (71%) - dullest November since 2007 Dec 2018: 30.5 hrs (59%) - dullest December on record, bet 2002 by 0.1 hrs (30.6 hrs) Jan 2019: 46.8 hrs (79%) Feb 2019: 112.4 hrs (149%) - third sunniest February on record behind 2004 and 1968 Mar 2019: 132.6 hrs (122%) - sunniest March only since 2015 That in total is 1,425.9 hrs which is not too far off what you'd see in an average year here though still sunnier than average (as there is no April total included). My sunniest observed was 2010 with 1,717.7 hrs which had every month bar February and July recording above average sunshine (though February was very sunny for some parts of the country just not Dublin due to easterly winds I would think). 1959 holds the record for most amount of sunshine in a year at an Irish station with Rosslare having 1996.4 hrs of sun that year. Dublin Airport saw 1,740 hrs - not a bad total at all for here and not far off 2010's total.

I'd say 2016 or 2017, maybe 2017, was most boring for me. A very boring dry and mild Winter. A very mild Spring with an exceptionally dry but dull April (dullest on record for parts of Ireland). A crap Summer that was about as forgettable as it gets outside of June 17th-21st. A very forgettable and crap Autumn with little interest bar Ophelia.

Very different world in Canada to Ireland

Yes, November has shown one of the clearest warming trends (at least in terms of the CET) I've found along with October as you say and maybe April too. Haven't looked at the Novembers named besides 1919 and 1965 to judge on how wintry they were outside of the fact they were quite cold.

That was the road near me on the Friday night and the best quality pic I took of it. The pics I took don't give justification to the amount of snow on the road though, was difficult to take one. Kildare was a different matter however.....

Totally agreed. Kudos to you Quicksilver1989 on that intriguing read. Will certainly be of help to the evaluation of my Winter forecast when I do it at the beginning of March! Some interesting comments here too.

That wasn't my intention, was just pointing out that the Novembers of the early 20th century were far more impressive than Novembers in the 60s with the exception of 1965. November 1919 was the coldest part of that entire Winter. The saying goes: "Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck". This is just a coincidence to me. November 1878 was severe and was followed by an extremely long and cold Winter with a lot of snowfalls for one example.

March 2018 - 2 to 4 March. Drifts from Storm Emma were huge and made my place impassable for the days named. The roads were cleared to allow driving on Monday 5th for the new working week but large snow depths remained for a good week on the side of roads.

Nothing compared to the Novembers of the early 20th century though. November 1915 was the second coldest November on record back to 1659 with a CET of 2.8c! November 1919 (CET of 3.3c) had an exceptionally cold spell that would be remarkable in the heart of Winter, never mind November with a minimum of -23.3c at Braemar on 14th November - the November record low for the UK. Then there was November 1910, 1923 and 1925 which also had a sub 4.0c CET yet the last time we have seen such a November CET was November 1925. Lowest we've seen since was 4.1c in November 1985.

Let's take a trip back to one of the snowiest Novembers of the last 100 years, November 1965. November 1965 is a month I don't hear talked about much. When it comes to November snow, it's nearly always the likes of 1985, 1993 and 2010 mentioned. However, November 1965 was exceptionally snowy by November standards over various parts of the UK. The Central England Temperature (CET) for November 1965 was 4.5c which is well below average by modern standards but not among the coldest on record, November 1985 was slightly colder for instance at 4.1c whilst November 1919 had a CET of 3.3c. It was only the coldest November for the CET and also much of England & Wales since 1952 but for Scotland, it was the coldest November since 1925. Deep area of low pressure pushed southwards down the North Sea on the 1st November 1965 bringing down a northerly flow of air. This deep low brought a maximum wind gust of 117 mph in Lanarkshire, Scotland. In Scotland and northern England, there were reports of mean wind speeds of 75 mph or more. 85 mph wind gusts causes the collapse of five out of the eight cooling towers of Ferrybridge Power Station in Doncaster on this day. Before this northerly brought down cold air, temperatures were well above average reaching maximum highs up to 15c in the southeast of England. Finningley reached a maximum of 15.5c on this day. Newport recorded the highest maximum of 18.3c (which it later recorded again on the 8th). As the cold air sank southwards, showers developed in the unstable northerly flow, turning wintry at times. There was some outbreaks of snow over the Highlands of Scotland on the 2nd/3rd but mostly of rain and sleet. It was sunny and fairly chilly otherwise during these first few days of the month with nightime frost. An anticyclone from the southwest of Ireland ridged into the UK and Ireland built in on the 4th to the 6th with sunny conditions and frosty mornings. By the 7th, a depression pushed into the south of Ireland and the southwest of the UK bringing rain northwards for a time and ahead from the front drawing up much milder conditions. Up to one inch of rain fell in parts of Hampshire, Isle of Wight and the southwest of Ireland. This rain cleared on the 8th to leave a mild and showery day over the UK and Ireland with variable amounts of sunshine. There was a report of a maximum of 14.8c at Ross-on-Wye on the 8th but as mentioned earlier, the max. reached on the 8th was 18.3c at Newport. The 9th brought another band of rain across the English Channel which moved northeastwards leading to a cloudy and wet day for most. Northern blocking established on the 11th November 1965 with high pressure stretching from Greenland all the way to Siberia and centred over the north of Scandinavia. This resulted in an easterly airflow with the source of air coming all the way from Russia. Low pressure anchored itself to the southwest of the UK and kept getting stuck here due to this blocking. It took a few days for the "real cold" air mass to arrive in the UK and Ireland but temperatures readily dropped until the 16th. By the 15th, nightime temperatures were widely below freezing and in the north, even getting below -10c. Snow showers became more frequent each day, especially along eastern districts of the UK and Ireland. Higher ground of northeast England recorded a snow depth of 5 inches on the 15th. Kew had its lowest daily mean temperatures for so early in the season on November 14th/15th 1965 since 1887. -13.9c was recorded at Braemar early on the 15th whilst freezing fog on the same day led to a maximum of only -2c at Ross-on-Wye. A large depression reached the south of Ireland on the 16th and continued to ascend northwards over the UK on the 17th. On the 16th, this generally fell first as snow with accumulations approximately reaching 5-10cm for lower levels of central and northern England but for Scotland and the Pennines, accumulations were up to 10-20cm. Gale force southeasterly winds made it feel bitterly cold before the depression brought the milder air. As the milder air pushed northwards later on the 16th and into the 17th, the snow turned to rain. However, due to strong blocking to the north, this low struggled to introduce mild conditions to Scotland so it remained cold there and snowy even into the 18th. In fact, the snow in eastern Scotland lasted throughout the rest of the month. Rainfall totals were between 10-50mm each day over various regions of Ireland and the south of the UK. For example, Brighton had a daily rainfall of 50.3mm on 20th November 1965. Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall of 44.5mm on 16th November. As the blocking intensified over Greenland, low pressure was forced southeastwards into Europe after bringing heavy rain to places from the 16th to the 20th November 1965 with flooding being a real concern by that stage. The winds turned into a northeasterly direction with an airstream of arctic origin so the flooding froze in parts and there was increasingly wintry conditions including snow showers even to southern England and south-coast resorts. Scarborough recorded a snow depth of 6 inches on the 22nd. Maximum temperatures were between only -2 to 7c (these are only estimates based on observations and interpretation of charts). A depression from the northwest of the Atlantic turned the winds into the southwest for most of the UK and Ireland on the 23rd bringing much milder conditions here and melting the snow with the risk of more severe flooding. However, the north remained cold in a northerly to northwesterly airflow. The 24th was a showery and sunnier day. Further rain approached from the Atlantic on the 25th bringing another wet period over the south of the UK and much of Ireland. Rain gradually turned to snow as the wind veered northerly on the 26th into the 27th. Northern districts had severe blizzards with considerable drifting including in the Durham area where there was reports of 15 foot snow drifts. Roads were blocked and impassable here significantly so. There were 7 foot snow drifts in the Lake District. There was also reports of thunderstorms mixed in with the snow. One final deep area of low pressure from the Atlantic interacted with the cold air on the 28th/29th November 1965 bringing rain to southern regions of both countries but up north, there was more severe blizzards. Northern England was particularly badly affected. These were their worst snowfalls they had suffered since February 1947 and the fact they occurred in November makes them stand out even more. Snow depths up to 3.6 inches over the north Midlands, 12 inches in Co. Durham and Northumberland and up to 22 inches in the Durham area. In the end, there was up to 24 days where snow fell in Scotland in November 1965. It was a very wet but sunny month. It was the wettest November over England & Wales since 1940 whilst it was the sunniest November since 1923 generally and at Kew and Manchester, it was the sunniest November on record. November 1965 was certainly a unique month in many regards here and shows just how extreme snowfall can be in November in the UK if the pattern is there. The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis of November 1965 shows a block of high pressure over Greenland and much of the Arctic with below average heights to the south and east of the UK and Ireland. This forces the wind in from a northeasterly to easterly direction. This tended to bring very cold air into the UK and Ireland during November 1965 but the below average heights meant there was battleground scenarios between mild air attacking from the Atlantic coming up against these cold easterly winds. This is why November 1965 was so snowy but also very wet for southern parts of both the UK and Ireland. Hope you enjoyed this analysis of November 1965. If you have any recollections or content (like observations, photos, newspapers etc) to add, feel free to. They always make historical discussions that bit more interesting. What I would do to experience November 1965.

Last time: October had a CET under 9.0c was 1993 and under 8.0c was 1992. Or if you want to go more extreme, under 7.0c was 1896. November had a CET under 5.0c was 1993 and under 4.0c was 1925. Or under 3.0c was 1915. Needn't go over December as we recently had December 2010. January had a CET under 2.0c was 2010 and under 1.0c was 1987. Or under 0.0c was 1979. Out of all the Winter months that is overdue a subzero CET, it's January. February had a CET under 2.0c was 1991 and under 1.0c was 1986. Or under 0.0c was 1986. Needn't go over March as we recently had March 2013. April had a CET under 7.0c was 1989 and under 6.0c was 1986. May had a CET under 10.0c was 1996 and under 9.0c was 1902. Very cold Novembers are a particular rare beast I find. There was 9 Novembers with a CET under 5.0c from 1900 to 1925 yet from 1926 to 2018, we have managed only 5 Novembers with such a CET.

Maybe the trilogy from 1953-54 to 1955-56. All had very mild Decembers and cold Februaries (February 1956 significantly so in terms of the CET).

2018 was giving 2010 a run for its money until November/December came along (which were sadly a very depressing end to 2018). January was stormy with average temperatures here (flip flops) in Dublin and I seen my first snow falling since March 2016 on the 16th! That was a very exciting night. 6/10 February was an ideal Winter month. Plentiful frost and very sunny. Had some frontal snow on the night of the 5th/6th giving a brief dusting but precipitation was light whilst temperatures were perfect for settling. The final day of the month was an ice day with my biggest snow easily since 2010 and this was only the start of the BFTE and then Emma showing just how poor my area does for snow and especially in this decade since 2010. 9/10 March started off epic with the BFTE continuing to feed in plenty of Irish Sea streamers then Emma invaded from the south and brought high drifts especially on the 2nd which I went out for a walk in. What an experience. After that it was generally cloudy and cool with a lot of rain so I wasn't particularly a fan of March (I'd also much prefer the snow to be in meteorological Winter than Spring but that's just me). I did have some more impressive snow on the 18th though. 5/10 April began absolutely horrible, very cloudy and cool with 4 consecutive days of no sunshine in the second week. I was very unwell during the same period so it didn't brighten up my mood, forgive the pun. I was relieved when the sun made an appearance on the evening of Friday 13th. The warm spell was terrible here generally with a lot of cloud and high humidity unfortunately though it was very interesting monitoring the maximum temps for the UK I must admit. The last week or so of April which became very awful in the southeast of England was actually really nice here and if it were not for this week, April would have been an exceptionally dull month here. I rate April slightly below average as a result. 4/10 May was fine. It wasn't my favourite as I preferred May 2010 and May 2017 which were both sunnier here but it was still not a month for me to complain about. Good few sunny days and pleasant warm temperatures. Was a very nice feeling finishing school for the year on May 29th and it was gorgeous weather out. 7/10 June was stupendous. Absolutely perfect. I could not have had a better June weather wise than June 2018. Perfect temperatures. Fantastic sunshine and in high frequency too (June 2018 was the sunniest month I've experienced so far). This is one of the rare months where I give the full 10/10. July started where June left off with more brilliant conditions but it changed for a bit from the 11th as cloudier conditions became afoot for most of the next two weeks with the exception of the 14th and 19th which were really nice days. The weather became very humid for a time on the 22nd but I found it alright and it was sunny at least. The 25th and 26th were the last fine days until the horrible end to July. A grand month overall though I preferred July 2013 and July 2014. 7/10 August was disappointing. Given my forecast, I was predicting it to be a poorer month compared to June and July but like still it was disappointing for yet another year. When will we get our next classic August like 1947, 1976 and 1995?! I have not got to experience one for myself in my life so far. It was dull, average temperature wise but dry. If it's going to be dull, I'd like it to be wet or very wet. If it's going to be dry, I'd like it to be sunny. 3/10 September was lovely with many nice mornings and afternoons - have them all captured on camera. Ali was probably my favourite storm I've experienced with an exciting day at school. 7/10 October was beautiful, really was. My favourite October I've seen. Like May to July (and February), there was plentiful sunshine to enjoy with even a record frost on the 30th as the nearest official station to me recorded -5c (rounded up). The frost was very visible when I woke up with beautiful cold sunshine. 9/10 November had a decent heavy rainfall event on the 9th and very nice days on the 1st and 18th. Bought a new camera out of a Black Friday sale using my birthday money and captured the moon on that very clear night of the 18th. Otherwise, just a horrible dull, wet and mild month. 3/10 December was atrocious. Nothing exciting whatsoever with exceptionally dull conditions! 1/10, first time I've given a 1/10 since May 2015. 2018 really did end on a damp squib after an exciting year for the most part. Summer was my favourite part which is ironic considering I'm a "snowbie".

21 years ago today. Max gusts for selected Irish stations during this storm. Satellite image.

January - Fairly chilly and blocked. Outside chance of some severe cold or wintry weather if teleconnections line up right but not thinking too highly of that. An unremarkable cool month with a lot of dry weather especially in the north. CET around 3.9c. February - A rather cold month with a relatively significant deviation below average by modern standards but not outstanding in the historical record by any means. A wetter month as the Atlantic jet stream powers up somewhat but still on a southerly track overall. CET around 2.9c. March - A delayed start to the Spring similar to 2018 but perhaps not as snowy with a lot of damp weather. Quite forgettable on the whole. CET around 5.1c. April - An average month with westerly winds being the dominant feature resulting in a showery pattern. A typical April. CET around 8.2c. May - After a run of warm to very warm Mays for the past few years, an awful May with plenty of rain or cool conditions. Possibly the coolest May since 1996. CET around 9.9c. June - A cool start to the Summer with a flat westerly regime bringing rather wet and dull conditions but not exceptionally so. CET around 13.3c. July - Risk of thunderstorms grow as the Summer becomes evident but not a classic Summer month. Fairly unremarkable especially by modern standards with mixed conditions. CET around 16.7c. August - Summer finally arrives with a very warm August. The warmest since 1997 with dry conditions for many. CET around 18.4c. September - The warmth continues with a warm September. Increasingly wet though as the westerlies become established after an initial very warm spell. CET around 15.3c. October - October 2019 ends the run of dry Octobers in style with an exceptionally wet month. Autumn really showing its hand with multiple storms. A mild month though. CET around 11.9c. November - Autumn continues with a wet November but the risk of cold at times as the jet stream meanders. Not a cold November however. CET around 7.7c. December - An anticyclonic month but with a lot of Euro high influence, a really dull and mild month especially up north. CET around 6.4c.

Still ended up with this in April 2008.

That's Met Set's so-called "stratospheric index" which divides into 8, nothing to do with MJO. See the below tweet from the same people: Here's how the 2012-13 major warming evolved at 10hPa to compare with the 2018-19 one since the Glosea5 is picking up on it being similar to that of 2012-13.

1971? Snowy? Eh.....

I would have thought 2017-18 as snowy in my own ranking, average before the BFTE and Son of the Beast. There was very frequent snow showers for a good part of the northern regions in both the UK and Ireland. I'd especially rank it as snowy if 2015-16 is "average" which it most certainly wasn't.