BruenSryan

To add weight to not taking the CFSv2 that serious. Look at the temperature anomalies the model was showing for July 2013 this time 5 years ago. I don't usually post here but just thought I'd say that. Think this afternoon and this evening's model runs are great with the south and southeast being favoured in both Ireland and the UK for earlier in the week then the west is best for the end of the week (if tonight's runs are correct) as in sun and warmth though everywhere will be average to cool. The agreement of the models this evening has been a while coming.

Well there was the 2004-2006 and 2010-12 droughts though Summer being the exception of course in the latter. Unsure if people regarded 2016-17 as a drought but it sure was very dry.

Not exactly. If you look at the 1st April Easter Sundays and the Summers that followed them (last occurrence of such being 1956 - terrible Summer), you'll find again a similar suit to what all those showed with a southerly tracking jet stream and northern blocking. It was mentioned on Twitter that the constant high pressure to the east since February maybe a good sign for the Summer because it combined with a weaker zonal flow means it's unlikely to change.

That would be very good. Some heat, some thunderstorms. You can't go wrong. 2001 was not that bad. 2001 is one of the years that crops up the most in the analogues I've mentioned above along with 1876, 1934, 1947, 1963, 1975, 1996, 2008 and 2013.

I can, 2012-13. Exceptionally wet, multiple months colder than average and dull too. January and March 2013 were yuck, never again please. Worst time of my life from personal experience to the weather to everything. I've not been finding 2017-18 too bad besides October, March and April rubbish here whilst August and September mediocre. November and February were beautifully sunny.

No, it was a southeasterly. The first two weeks were dominated by easterlies leaving the south and east rather dull most of the time but very sunny and sometimes warm elsewhere especially up to the north.

With the constant wet weather, it didn't feel that sunny here in April 2012. The 80s consisted of some very good Aprils like 1982, 84 and 87 but 83, 86 and 89 were all unsettled and very cold. 81 produced the blizzards in England at the latter part of the month. The highest I saw in April 2012 all month was 13c, no higher than that. 2018 I have not beaten that so far but I will next week. The simple reason is the colder than average seas surrounding us courtesy of the beast from the east dumping all that cold air here. It doesn't take that much to warm them up because they are shallow seas but the thing is, we need to get that warmer air first for a start...... Yes Kevin, Spring 1996 was terrible. March was very dull and in Ireland exceptionally wet. April was pretty average whilst May was awfully cold.

Breaking news! I found a rare phenomena, I think it’s called the sun!

April 2012 was as awful as this, felt like endless April showers and downpours with daytime maxima struggling at 8-11c mostly.

The year started off very sunny here with both the sunniest January in 3 years and one of the sunniest Februaries I've experienced. February was absolutely beautiful. It was cold. It was dry. It was snowy. It was sunny. The ideal Winter month if you ask me. Of course, we've more than paid back for that with a very dull March and now what is so far a very dull April. This was coming after a very sunny November and a relatively sunny December but October was very dull. I don't know how to answer the original question of this thread because my outlooks for May were very uncertain and still are with multiple methodologies offsetting one another in creating a defined pattern whilst for the Summer, it's more clear cut for a poor season though there are always exceptions of course with any long range forecasting. I'd be surprised to see a May as good as 2016 or 2017 for a third consecutive year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/publications/daily-weather-summary

Don't think I've seen a Spring in my life so far with as many completely dull days as 2018.

The outlooks for Summer 2018 are certainly not pretty. I've done many sorts of reanalysis charts for the season and barely any of them are pointing towards a good Summer. I even resorted to some ridiculous ones. I have looked at the following and these are the setups provided of all the Summers averaged into one reanalysis (which means you'll get Summers that differ obviously): Summers following cold Marches - High pressure just to the northwest ridging over us allowing the jet stream on a northerly track and creating warm easterlies with a trough to the southeast of Europe. A nice reanalysis to start us off with here. Summers ending in "8" - I think this is one that the majority are aware of by this stage but if you don't know already, there has not been a "good" Summer ending in the number "8" since 1868. Of course, you could make exceptions such as 1968 which was arguably good in the north and west though rather cool. Just even look at the recent examples of these Summers: 2008 - very wet especially August which was one of the dullest on record too. A fairly warm July and close to average June but both months were very wet too. 1998 - very wet and dull June. Very dull July. Decent August mind you with fairly mild and sunny conditions. 1988 - mainly settled and dry in June but very cold, wet and even stormy July with a rather indifferent poor August. The reanalysis perfectly captures the poor nature of these Summers as it shows very stubborn blocking over Greenland and the Arctic with a deep trough over us and the jet stream on a southerly track. Summers following sunny Winters - Very similar to Summers ending in "8" with a trough over us and stubborn blocking up to the north. Perhaps the jet stream not on as much a southerly track though. Summers with low solar activity following sunny Winters - Deep trough over us and blocking over Greenland/Arctic. I think you get the picture....... Summers following wet Marches - low pressure everywhere, even Greenland and the Arctic! Summers following wet Aprils - Blocking up to the north with a trough over us and a southerly tracking jet stream. Are you seeing a theme here? Summers following two years of La Nina which is then followed again by another La Nina event - Blocking up to the north with a trough down to the Bay of Biscay. However, the block is close enough to the British Isles for the jet stream to be on a northerly track and give us hot easterlies. The trough would allow for some thundery incursions. You can see that I was very desperate to finding a good reanalysis for Summer 2018 that I'd resort myself to a ridiculous far out there one like this. Summers following years where January was the warmest month out of the first three of the year (using the CET) - Low pressure to the southwest and over the UK with blocking up to the north........ mmmmmmmmmm Summers following cold Easters (using the CET). The 1981-2010 CET average for Easter (Good Friday to Easter Monday) is 8.07c so any Easter period below this average was considered for this reanalysis - Low pressure over the Arctic. Low pressure over the majority of Europe including us with a mid-Atlantic block. Awful chart! Summers following sunny Februaries - Very southerly tracking jet stream with blocking up to the north and a trough over us. Summers following dull Marches - High pressure just out to the west ridging in across Ireland with low pressure over Greenland and Europe. The flow is from a northerly source. Cold reanalysis but not all that wet. Summers following years with both a wet March and wet April in the same year - Deep low over Greenland which would usually indicate a positive NAO and in turn good for warmth. Trough in the Mediterranean which again usually good for warmth for us. But there are low heights over us with a mid-Atlantic block. These low heights are very weak allowing the jet on a bit of a northerly track. This is not far off a very good setup! So there you have it. Those are all the ones I have done up to this point and it does not paint a good picture for the Summer! Hopefully Summer 2018 breaks the cycle of poor Summers ending in "8".

I'm thinking of doing a Summer variation of my Winter methodology tables in my first post. The question though is, what methodology would I include on this? I know NAO, CET and UKMT are definite for sure.

May 2017 had plenty of settled, sunny and warm days here in Ireland, fantastic month! May 2016 was also very nice. A third May that is great just like those I don't see happening especially with the methodology like QBO, ENSO etc historically. If it means a great Summer (provided this year ends in "8" and we know how bad those Summers are since 1868), then I'm all for it.

I'll make sure not to post here then with them 'cause long range forecasting and weather history are what I focus on. I like the experimental nature of long range forecasting, makes it very fun and enjoyable to me.

Table of warm or hot Summer months (anomalies are based on 1981-2010 averages). I wanted to do this table to see if there's any slight correlation with the QBO and Summer months. To no surprise, there isn't. However, it's a fun table to look at nonetheless.

No because I wanted to use more stations. I calculated back to the early 00s using the yesterday's weather page stations then people wanted me to include more stations as well as the Northern Ireland figure from the UK Met Office. As a result of this feedback, I went and included stations using Met Éireann's historical data - also the historical data on the NASA site for Irish stations, and the Northern Ireland figure from the UK Met Office. This can be controversial though because stations change from year to year and the further back I go in calculating, the less stations I have to use in the calculations of the figures. I'm quite aware on the history of the IMT. Deep Easterly and I have spoken about this before in the Irish Weather Statistics thread on Boards.ie. We compare figures from time to time and these comparisons help to make me note where I've made a huge error in data calculations. Deviations between our figures tend to be within 0.5c but when they differ for like 0.6 or higher, especially over more than a degree, either the month had some large differences in temperature or I made some mistakes in the calculations. I do this to compare historical months and have a CET equivalent. I do not like how Ireland doesn't have an official index to show how warm or cool a month/season/year was in the island - which makes it hard to compare historical events in terms of temperature.