BruenSryan

Wasn't alive but statistically wise, 1988 seems very boring and forgettable. All that seemed "nice" about it was a chilly, sunny and frosty November but other than that, cool and unsettled Summer, mild Winters and becoming exceptionally so in 1988-89. 1980 doesn't seem particularly amazing either especially for how dull the Summer was.

I quite liked August 2008 because I love extreme rainfall and that's pretty much what the month delivered. After the thunderstorm on the 9th August 2008 in Dublin (which became the wettest August day on record, now 2nd as of 2014), these were the scenes: I hated August 2011 a lot more because it had no extreme rainfall and it was cold/dull.

I had very little snow here in the east of Ireland by the coast. On the 18 January 2013, I had heavy rain which was frustration looking at other places especially in the UK buried. This was the exact same scenario with the March 21st/22nd blizzard, I had no snow just heavy rain and even spot flooding. They were cold, raw, dull and wet months. In the January 2013 spell, I had 5 minutes of a very light snow shower on the 22nd, that was it. It was the dullest January I've experienced to this day. In contrast to March 2013, March 2018 gave me a lot of snow.

January: 2013 February: 2017 March: 2013 April: 2017 May: 2015 June: 2012 July: 2015 (2012 is a contender) August: 2011 September: 2016..... probably unpopular October: 2017 November: 2015 December: 2015 They are all duller than normal (though September 2016 was fairly close to average here)! I loathe the months in bold in particular.

January: 2011 February: 2018 March: 2011 April: 2011 May: 2017 June: 2018 July: 2013 August: 2010 September: 2010 October: 2010 November: 2010 (2016 is a close contender if it weren't for the snow and cold in 2010) December: 2010 Absolute favourites in bold.

Looking at Glosea5 for November-January is useless. The only year it did show northern blocking in its August update for that tri-monthly period was 2013-14....... and we all know how that turned out. To me, this Winter provides a lot of conflict and complications.

One of my favourite Aprils (2011 was my favourite) because of it being so sunny. May though was utterly atrocious.

Even 2009 just after quickly glancing at the data. I forgot some of these years myself. You can find the maxima in the climate summaries available: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries

There was also 2004 and 2005. 2004 June - 31.5c at Cambridge on the 8th July - 30.1c in Central London on the 29th August - 31.5c at Northolt and Central London on the 7th/8th 2005 June - 33.1c in Central London on the 19th July - 31.7c at Gravesend on the 14th August - 32.2c in Central London on the 31st 2006 was almost one but August was 0.3c short at 29.7c.

2015 June - 32.5c at Heathrow on the 30th July - 36.7c at Heathrow on the 1st August - 30.9c at Kew Gardens and Gravesend on the 22nd

And..... GFS OP goes from exceptionally wet and even stormy next Friday on the 12z to absolutely nothing on the 18z.

I think people slate it for being appalling for two reasons: 1. July being exceptionally wet 2. The UK Met Office infamously forecasting a "BBQ Summer" I loved Summer 2009 personally. Summer 2010 was my favourite out of the 2007-2012 period. It was a good June and a good August (well very sunny and dry but not really warm) whilst July was poor but it wasn't nearly as bad here as much of Ireland had been. If I'd choose the worst Summer out of the period since 2007, 2012 without a doubt here. At least September 2009 became very anticyclonic.

Latest UKMO Glosea5 model doesn't agree with that, in fact a continuation of warm easterlies for August to October with its July 2018 update.

This is the sea surface temperature anomaly map for July 1995 that I'm referring to @Mike Poole. As for Chris, let's have some perspective. Let's look at two examples of very deep lows/storms in recent times coming towards the UK and Ireland; ex-hurricane Cristobal on 31 August 2014 and "Irene" (as apparently named by the media) on 16 April 2018. Both lows promoted ridging over us. The first one, Cristobal, gave away to one of the driest Septembers on record in our countries with barely any rainfall for a lot of places for much of the month following a very wet end to Summer 2014. Meanwhile, Irene gave away to an exceptional warm spell for the time of year and later, a very dry May along with a very dry June with lots and lots of high pressure being the dominant influence. Same could happen with Chris this time in prolonging the settled weather again with it helping to ascend more high pressure from the south (which will be bad news for some, especially here in the east of Ireland where I live). The Azores High is still very strong and ridgey. Add the fact that the GFS was "toying" onto this idea too yesterday well in FI on some runs. I would not be surprised whatsoever if this was to actually happen given how the Summer has turned out so far and with reasons above given light. You could also consider Hector of mid-June.

What I mean is that the North Atlantic has a cold blob of sea surface temperature anomalies in 2018 compared to 1995 so any time we go into a northwesterly or westerly, it will be much cooler than any attempt of such during 1995 with perhaps quite dramatic cool downs if the winds do go those directions. Not to mention, this cold blob is also more conducive of forming deep depressions than if it wasn't there. If the deep depressions don't occur the rest of this Summer, it's a high chance that Autumn will be stormy as a result of this SST profile in the North Atlantic unless something drastic happens. I've seen this breakdown scenario appearing numerous times this Summer already, just look at the week that has gone by now. Thunderstorms were meant to come up from Biscay on Sunday 1st July and then we gradually go into a cooler more Atlantic influenced phase. Yeah, that worked out . I also remember the models (specifically the GFS most of all) hinting at a deluge for Friday 15th June 7 days or so before. We're at a similar timeframe to all these pickups on "breakdowns" that we've seen this season. Tropical Depression 3 and Beryl are really causing a ruckus in the model output. This is just getting silly at this stage.

Somebody brought this up with me, look how Summer 1995 "ended" in mid-July 1995. However, the north Atlantic is much colder in 2018 compared to 1995. That mid-July 1995 low was heavy thundery showers. The models here for FI are suggesting damp conditions more than anything. Am I splitting hairs?

What? There's two runs I take less serious and they're the 06z and 18z based on their verification. Also, the chart given is at +384 hrs so even if it was the 0z or 12z, I wouldn't take it serious at all. Just look at it for long range trends or fun. P.S. Don't quote pics please.

Rip see you again Summer soon maybe next year :(. But seriously, GFS 18z.... Pub Run.... enough said. It's like that GFS 12z run from the day before.

Toasty GFS 18z , not as hot as ECM 12z but hardly cool by any means.

NAVGEM strikes again. 36c in Ireland, 20c in Morocco. Sure

Yep about time it was smashed. It has happened multiple times to the UK since 1900 (1911, 1990, 2003), so why not Ireland's turn now.

Yes (I love your posts by the way) but what the analogues (I've been making hell of a lot of analogues also) don't take into account is the constant stationary wave over Scandinavia since February. I think August will be poor but the models like Glosea5 (CFSv2 differs), SST profiles etc don't suggest this. I couldn't imagine four consecutive very warm and dry months including all three Summer months. I do not see a 1976 repeat BUT the SST profile in the Atlantic in May 2018 was very similar to that of May 1976 though the Pacific differs in 1976 to 2018. It will most certainly not be a record warm June. June 1846 will still stand as the warmest June on record for the CET. Just stating facts. I'm looking forward to it and I'll be making the most of it. Anyway...... back on topic to model output. GEM - scorcherio GFS - scorcherio UKMO - scorcherio Is ECM going to be scorcherio or disasterio?

May 1976 was warm in the south but relatively cool in the north. Fairly changeable month but sunny in the south. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/n/s/may1976.pdf Whilst I'm a lover of sun and warmth, it's safe to say that it is a terrible outlook for hayfever sufferers, those with other medical problems related to heat, can't stand heat etc. Skin cancer is also likely to increase with the high UV levels and everybody going out.

It's like the Beast from the East all over again. Why are you looking out that far? Jeez. We have enough uncertainty out to Friday 29th or Saturday 30th June. Never mind the second week of July! Enjoy it whilst we have it.

The GFS ensembles are also showing the indexes (NAO and AO) going into negative territory through the first week of July indicating the Greenland blocking that the 12z forms. Oh boy.