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BruenSryan
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Posts posted by BruenSryan
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Spring 2013 was my most hated season, I'd rather not remember it. As I mentioned in another thread, I got barely any snow. I didn't reach 10c throughout March, it was just consistently cold and awful with dull cloudy skies and during the Northern Ireland blizzard on the 22nd, I just got heavy rain. My luck was not there for early 2013, disaster after disaster.
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1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:
I was just saying earlier on the Summer thread how some years ago I heard the same theory and that based on this I want Summer like conditions to be completely behind us once September starts. As you say though September 2009 was still followed by a cold Winter and more recently September 2015 was the coolest September in central England since 1986 yet it was followed by a very mild Winter. So maybe what it's like here in September doesn't necessarily make or break what the following Winter will be like. There might not be any connection at all even and any trend is perhaps purely coincidental?
The theory (better coined as hypothesis though) is behind unsettled Septembers, not necessarily cool ones (2010 was unsettled but fairly mild for instance). For the most part, September 2015 was settled in spite of being cool. I think it's coincidence. You'll find lots of exceptions.
1986 was very cool but also dry and was followed by a mixed Winter including a freezing January but December was very wet and mild.
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5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
How do you work that one out, S76?
Historically, there aren't many dry and especially warm Septembers followed by cold Winters. Unsettled Septembers are a different story such as 1946, 1962, 1981, 1995 and 2010. Not impossible to have a dry settled September and a cold Winter following though, 2009 was a recent example.
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This August has just been perfectly forgettable to me, not exceptionally poor nor really great.
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Wasn't alive but statistically wise, 1988 seems very boring and forgettable. All that seemed "nice" about it was a chilly, sunny and frosty November but other than that, cool and unsettled Summer, mild Winters and becoming exceptionally so in 1988-89. 1980 doesn't seem particularly amazing either especially for how dull the Summer was.
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I quite liked August 2008 because I love extreme rainfall and that's pretty much what the month delivered. After the thunderstorm on the 9th August 2008 in Dublin (which became the wettest August day on record, now 2nd as of 2014), these were the scenes:
I hated August 2011 a lot more because it had no extreme rainfall and it was cold/dull.
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3 hours ago, Leo97t said:
Surprised you hate January & march 2013 as I thought you were a snow addict.
I had very little snow here in the east of Ireland by the coast. On the 18 January 2013, I had heavy rain which was frustration looking at other places especially in the UK buried. This was the exact same scenario with the March 21st/22nd blizzard, I had no snow just heavy rain and even spot flooding. They were cold, raw, dull and wet months. In the January 2013 spell, I had 5 minutes of a very light snow shower on the 22nd, that was it. It was the dullest January I've experienced to this day. In contrast to March 2013, March 2018 gave me a lot of snow.
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4 hours ago, cheese said:
How about everyone's least favourite months of the 2010s? Mine would be:
January: 2013
February: 2017
March: 2013
April: 2017
May: 2015
June: 2012
July: 2015 (2012 is a contender)
August: 2011
September: 2016..... probably unpopular
October: 2017
November: 2015
December: 2015
They are all duller than normal (though September 2016 was fairly close to average here)!
I loathe the months in bold in particular.
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January: 2011
February: 2018
March: 2011
April: 2011
May: 2017
June: 2018
July: 2013
August: 2010
September: 2010
October: 2010
November: 2010 (2016 is a close contender if it weren't for the snow and cold in 2010)
December: 2010
Absolute favourites in bold.
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Looking at Glosea5 for November-January is useless. The only year it did show northern blocking in its August update for that tri-monthly period was 2013-14....... and we all know how that turned out. To me, this Winter provides a lot of conflict and complications.
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One of my favourite Aprils (2011 was my favourite) because of it being so sunny. May though was utterly atrocious.
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4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:
Seems I was very wrong indeed then...
Even 2009 just after quickly glancing at the data. I forgot some of these years myself.
You can find the maxima in the climate summaries available: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries
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8 minutes ago, Leo97t said:
Unexpected seeing how bad the summer was as a whole. But except from that it was last in 2003
There was also 2004 and 2005.
2004
June - 31.5c at Cambridge on the 8th
July - 30.1c in Central London on the 29th
August - 31.5c at Northolt and Central London on the 7th/8th
2005
June - 33.1c in Central London on the 19th
July - 31.7c at Gravesend on the 14th
August - 32.2c in Central London on the 31st
2006 was almost one but August was 0.3c short at 29.7c.
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13 hours ago, Leo97t said:
When was the last time all three summer months reached 30C? Im thinking it must be 2003 but maybe I'm missing one? I just shows you just how abysmal August has been recently. 2016 has the only one which was even okay.
2015
June - 32.5c at Heathrow on the 30th
July - 36.7c at Heathrow on the 1st
August - 30.9c at Kew Gardens and Gravesend on the 22nd
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And..... GFS OP goes from exceptionally wet and even stormy next Friday on the 12z to absolutely nothing on the 18z.
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I think people slate it for being appalling for two reasons:
1. July being exceptionally wet
2. The UK Met Office infamously forecasting a "BBQ Summer"
I loved Summer 2009 personally. Summer 2010 was my favourite out of the 2007-2012 period. It was a good June and a good August (well very sunny and dry but not really warm) whilst July was poor but it wasn't nearly as bad here as much of Ireland had been.
If I'd choose the worst Summer out of the period since 2007, 2012 without a doubt here. At least September 2009 became very anticyclonic.
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2 hours ago, Snowjokes92 said:
Anyone get the feeling from the models the second half of summer could be dominated by high pressure building from the south, low to the west or southwest and the azores high linking to the high pressure above the low pressure ? Similar to the 6z gfs run
Latest UKMO Glosea5 model doesn't agree with that, in fact a continuation of warm easterlies for August to October with its July 2018 update.
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This is the sea surface temperature anomaly map for July 1995 that I'm referring to @Mike Poole.
As for Chris, let's have some perspective. Let's look at two examples of very deep lows/storms in recent times coming towards the UK and Ireland; ex-hurricane Cristobal on 31 August 2014 and "Irene" (as apparently named by the media) on 16 April 2018. Both lows promoted ridging over us. The first one, Cristobal, gave away to one of the driest Septembers on record in our countries with barely any rainfall for a lot of places for much of the month following a very wet end to Summer 2014. Meanwhile, Irene gave away to an exceptional warm spell for the time of year and later, a very dry May along with a very dry June with lots and lots of high pressure being the dominant influence. Same could happen with Chris this time in prolonging the settled weather again with it helping to ascend more high pressure from the south (which will be bad news for some, especially here in the east of Ireland where I live). The Azores High is still very strong and ridgey. Add the fact that the GFS was "toying" onto this idea too yesterday well in FI on some runs. I would not be surprised whatsoever if this was to actually happen given how the Summer has turned out so far and with reasons above given light. You could also consider Hector of mid-June.
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10 hours ago, mushymanrob said:
yep, even hot summers had a break from the heat... so the suggested cooling off/trough dominated spell after next weekend means nothing atm. it might herald a pattern change, but if its like 95 itll come back with avengance. locally we had 11 unbroken days of 25c+ , which i think is possibly the longest unbroken stretch in living memory.
20 hours ago, Mike Poole said:I'm not sure if you mean the air temperature in the N Atlantic, or the sea? You probably are splitting hairs if you are looking at the models in FI - at the moment they've got a good grasp to day 5ish (earlier in the hot spell I'd have said day 7), after that take with pinch of salt.
Re previous years, I think this year - at least up to now - has more in common with 1976 than 1995. Ironically I can't really remember 1995, I remember a summer with very brown grass, it was probably that one, I remember 1976 very vividly, even though I was 5 years old! When I say this year resembles 1976 though, that is in terms of the weather - it can't be the same in terms of impact because 1976 was on the back of a hot dry previous summer and a dry winter, this year that is definitely not true, there won't be a water shortage this summer.
I think both those summers were briefly punctuated with less settled periods, it would be surprising if this one was different.
What I mean is that the North Atlantic has a cold blob of sea surface temperature anomalies in 2018 compared to 1995 so any time we go into a northwesterly or westerly, it will be much cooler than any attempt of such during 1995 with perhaps quite dramatic cool downs if the winds do go those directions. Not to mention, this cold blob is also more conducive of forming deep depressions than if it wasn't there. If the deep depressions don't occur the rest of this Summer, it's a high chance that Autumn will be stormy as a result of this SST profile in the North Atlantic unless something drastic happens.
I've seen this breakdown scenario appearing numerous times this Summer already, just look at the week that has gone by now. Thunderstorms were meant to come up from Biscay on Sunday 1st July and then we gradually go into a cooler more Atlantic influenced phase. Yeah, that worked out . I also remember the models (specifically the GFS most of all) hinting at a deluge for Friday 15th June 7 days or so before. We're at a similar timeframe to all these pickups on "breakdowns" that we've seen this season.
Tropical Depression 3 and Beryl are really causing a ruckus in the model output. This is just getting silly at this stage.
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Somebody brought this up with me, look how Summer 1995 "ended" in mid-July 1995.
However, the north Atlantic is much colder in 2018 compared to 1995. That mid-July 1995 low was heavy thundery showers. The models here for FI are suggesting damp conditions more than anything.
Am I splitting hairs?
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13 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Remember the ‘pub’ run is actually not the really the pub and the second most accurate run of the 4 from GFS.
What? There's two runs I take less serious and they're the 06z and 18z based on their verification. Also, the chart given is at +384 hrs so even if it was the 0z or 12z, I wouldn't take it serious at all. Just look at it for long range trends or fun.
P.S. Don't quote pics please.
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Rip see you again Summer soon maybe next year :(.
But seriously, GFS 18z.... Pub Run.... enough said. It's like that GFS 12z run from the day before.
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Toasty GFS 18z , not as hot as ECM 12z but hardly cool by any means.
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NAVGEM strikes again. 36c in Ireland, 20c in Morocco. Sure
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Autumn 2018
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Thing that's holding it back if you ask me is the Atlantic sea surface temperatures.