Gray-Wolf
-
Posts
12,422 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Gray-Wolf
-
-
34 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
I'm guessing here, Ian, but after so many warm winters and summers at least some of the excess heat must be being stored deeper down in the oceans than was once the case. It has to have gone somewhere... Right?
Through the noughties, we were constantly told that heat was being buried in the upper layers of the Pacific
I believe I'm right in thinking this was a function of the 'Negative phase' of the 'Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation'?
Since 2014 it has been in its 'Positve Phase' releasing heat into the atmosphere above?
I think the Phases last from 15 to 30 years?
If what we're seeing in that plot is the impact of ENSO now being neutral (not the negative pull of La Nina?) then we'll be in for a hot one if El Nino does form up this coming Summer!
-
1
-
-
Anyone got any ideas why our SST's should be doing what they're doing? (& not falling away as all other years do around now?)
Climate Reanalyzer
CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG-
1
-
-
Here we go!.....I wonder how any Nino will 'tweak' such?
Extreme heat scorches Asia, affecting at least a third of the world’s population - The Verge
WWW.THEVERGE.COMA massive heatwave is shattering records across the continent.-
1
-
1
-
-
While we may be blighted currently with cold uppers from our NE and North frequently muscling in the rest of the Hemisphere (seemingly barring NE U.S.?) is already suffering extreme heatwaves
Over recent years even Siberia has been seeing 100f so, soon enough, there will be no cold to trouble us but plenty of extreme heat from both the South & from over the near continent (augmented if Nino kicks off big style?)
Whatever summer we get I'd guess it will be warm & the only thing to figure out is how much cloud cover & rain we see?....& the rain will, as ever, potentially be torrential on occasions leading to local flooding issues
If we see High pressures settle over us then, as we saw last year, some extreme Heat will surely arise?
The one thing we've been lacking in recently (in my location?) has been Storms.....Heat, & our atmosphere's growing ability to take up moisture, is surely priming us for some absolute bangers should conditions conspire so let's see how this 'warm Season' treats us this Summer?
-
1
-
-
Just a reminder that we are part of the 'ground Zero' for the formation of funnel clouds....I'm not calling for an F4 in central London any time soon but if the energy available in the atmosphere is on the up & up then surely such an evolution is to be expected as we allow ourselves to drift ever deeper into our Climate Crisis?
-
1
-
-
Well I was expecting to awake to grey & rain but bright & Sunny again! We're still expecting rain but amounts seem down on what were being forecast earlier in the week?
-
Here's what Jen Francis thinks of the coming Nino....
-
1
-
-
With record SST's logged at the end of Summer in the Southern Hemisphere I have to wonder how our 'land heavy' Northern Hemisphere will fare by it's 'Summers End'?
Though the Oceans temps will fall away over that period the ability for rapid warming of land surfaces could see them push the average global temps toward record temps
As I'd noted in the E.N.S.O. thread the flip of the PMO positive in 2014 now sees swathes of the Pacific pumping heat into the air above while the drive for 'clean air' across Asia has seen the 'Asian Brown cloud' reducing year on year (allowing more of the energy available at the top of our Atmosphere to make it to the surface and 're-radiation' in the infra-red?)
So more of the potential GHG forcing available will be realised (in 2005 NASA told us up to 50% of potential warming was being lost to 'Global Dumming'?) & global temps will respond.....
-
1
-
-
Anybody thinking we might see a global temp record this, or next, year should El Nino take hold?
We've already seen record SST's even though we were at the tail end of 3 years of La Nina & that heat will be pouring into the Atmosphere above....add in a Nino plume & I reckon we might well see the record fall?
-
1
-
-
17 hours ago, Don said:
So much for SC25 being weaker than 24!!
I think there was a contingent of those 'demanding such' that were basically 'Global Warming Deniers' either clutching at straws for some 'global cooling' driven by a 'Maunder-like minimum' or just trying to wind up those concerned at the pace of evolving warming impacts?
-
2
-
1
-
-
So when was the 'Final Warming'?
-
So this cycle could be twice as strong as cycle 24?
Not been hearing from the folk promising a 'Maunder-like' minimum from this cycle recently......
-
2
-
-
As we've seen from the record global SST's prior to the onset of Nino our 'Global warming' background means ANY Nino gets a 'leg up' from the background climate
I'm sure a read that the last Super was 'aided & abetted' by things like Summer Arctic heat uptake & the flip in the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation?
The Arctic is still soaking up a small nino's worth of Energy each summer (that needs releasing each autumn before re-freeze?) & we're now well into the 'positive' phase of the PMO....I can only see a 'Super' ahead of us all things considered....
-
1
-
1
-
-
Well Friday's "Pace Egg" looks like a pleasant affair? It'll be a dry one for once ('weather' not Ale!!!)
-
On 14/03/2023 at 22:26, summer blizzard said:
No. The vortex has reformed in the upper levels and will over time seep down.
Still waiting here......
Or was it the 'Final Warming'?......
-
There are times I need queue for petrol at the Supermarket
How would it be if only 50% of the cars heading into town every morning then needed to find a 'top up' before the journey home?
How many 'charge points' would such require?.......
-
Was that the 'Final Warming'?
Not a lot going on at 10 HPa right now?
Is such early if it is the F.W.?
-
Light snow here in the Upper Calder Valley.....looks like we have a hour or so of it to come but no settling
-
So 'La Nada' it is!
Should current forecasts hold true after the 'spring barrier' then we have a Nino to look forward to come the back end of Summer?
-
Just noticed how high the melt has made our River!
It melts a lot slower than it can come down these days so no issues but it'd have been plenty high on Thursday night/Friday Morning if that lot had fallen as rain for sure!!!
Beautifully mild out there a.t.m.!
What a difference a day makes eh?
-
Planty of melt overnight here on the West Yorkshire Borders....Just as I like it, the kids got a long weekend but snow all shifted for the new week...March Snow eh?
-
West Yorks here!
Not sleeting but full on snow in the Valley bottom here.....it'll be settling over the tops I reckon?
-
1 hour ago, ukpaul said:
Ah but the warning was for other people, not them. How were they to know that there were hundreds of others who thought the same?
I bet, when pushed, 90% of them had no reason that they had to travel at that time of the day or on that route.
Anyone who knows the stretch from Milnrow & on east past Heartshead Moor services know you just 'don't' if the snows settling on the roads hereabouts?
Couple that with folk low on experience in driving in snowy conditions & that's that done! The car in front forces you to stop & then the fun & games begin!
-
3
-
-
Must have been a lot of 'essential journeys' on the M62 last night?
Even after days of warnings and an Amber MetO warning they still had to travel on one of the highest sections of motorway in England...in a Blizzard.....
Hmmmm......
-
2
-
Starship SN24 + Super Heavy Booster Launch
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Does anyone know the impact of dumping so much methane into the strat?
It's pretty 'dry' up there so it'll not break down as quickly as it does down here in the Trop?