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Neil Harris

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Posts posted by Neil Harris

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, Derecho said:

    I think this is becoming by far my most annoying buzz word this summer. I don't think the last 2 days would barely meet the description of the word 'horror show' on what was meant to be a horror week.

    Just seems like standard summer fare to be and a bit more on the unsettled side. Sure its wetter in the north and west but those areas see more rain anyway.

    I think some may overreact when interpreting the model output and may not do so correctly or they are trolling.

     Either that or some have an unrealistically high threshold of how good every UK summer should be and need to move further south.

    We will probably see a northerly component to the flow later this month but will it be an anticyclonic northerly or cyclonic northerly? Difficult to say at this point, potentially the latter but no long fetch northerlies at least.

    Doesn't take too much change for these northerlies to become more anticyclonic in nature or better still, a high ridging across us.

    Cricket has been used a bit lately on this forum.
    So if we were to look at that, They've managed 5 balls and are now into their second day in Cardiff.
    In Blackpool they managed 28 balls yesterday, They are playing today though.
    Somerset lost a session in the afternoon yesterday. 

    So you could say the west had a bit of a horror day

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, danm said:

    Runs this morning all look a bit "meh" to use a technical phrase. This week is set in stone, so not too much point labouring on the unsettled outlook we have coming up, except to note that it's not a total washout for all - today, Thursday and Friday may turn out pretty respectable in the south/SE. This morning is a sunny, fairly warm one and it's forecast to be dry with sunny spells and 23c. That's about right for the time of year, but some heavy rain further north and west. There is also potential for some wilder wet and windy weather for a time this weekend looking at the models. 

    Into the extended, and as you'd expect the Op runs are flip flopping all over the place for next week due to the lead time. Some runs show a good build from the Azores high, others show it much more muted with continued trough incursions from the NW. So best at this stage to check the means and see where we are likely to be relative to this week. 

    The ECM mean (below) is still consistently showing a rise in pressure starting from around next Monday. So whilst there is no heatwave forecast, things should settle down and we will likely have more sunny and dry days than wetter one's, compared to this week. It's a positive first step. 

    Screenshot2023-07-10at10_17_42.thumb.png.928f0c97e3ee69e3ec0fd51f8671f22f.png

    The GFS mean is similar:

    Screenshot2023-07-10at10_20_00.thumb.png.b12c8e66e72ea80562106ceec4afc77a.png

    ...and the GEM:

    Screenshot2023-07-10at10_20_44.thumb.png.d0685aa5eacf7b373e337d2539a398e3.png

     

    Looking at the Op runs for a minute, to highlight what this means, this chart from the ECM could sum up where we are at next week:

    image.thumb.png.96f2ffff4449b8e858209e44ea213c44.png

    A build of high pressure from the west, with a mean flow from the W/NW (but Atlantic sourced) - so not overly warm, but pleasant in any sunshine with average temperature's (22-24c in the south, high teens/20c further north). However, some trough influence still likely, especially further north, and possibly for all at times. However, if the SLP means are anything to go by, these will be transient and we won't have a trough parked over us. 

    So no immediate switch to a 2018/2022 set up is on the cards, but a slow improvement is still the likely outcome for next week. 

    All eyes on the models for Manchester.... 19th onwards

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MattH said:

    The overall outlook hasn't changed but it is, clearly, timing that has and continues to be the troublesome aspect of the forecast for any potential, or expected/predicted changes, deeper into July. 
     

    Visually what plot stands out and is very telling of the situation right now is the EC46 AAM forecast graphic. The key area of interest here is how the model (and others) have struggled to grasp the more obvious fall in AAM in the short-term, with a clear split in recent model runs over the early July evolution. This highlights the timing issue as clearly AAM, through the usual processes, has fallen or been able to fall away more significantly and, importantly, for longer than was expected. The result, the persistent cyclonic regime...
     

    image.thumb.png.7dfd51991ee8fd36e6bc6a0068bcb65d.png

     

    However, equally as important is the long-standing prediction for a recovery in AAM as July progresses and this aspect of the forecast remains unchanged and consistent, so patience is still urged for those wanting summer to return and I fully believe it will. Another way to look at this signal is through the usual VP200 anomalies as well. 
     

    image.thumb.png.0a5d1aa75bf2f34f6b48e7c1214b6a1f.png

    image.thumb.png.e04cc327454e2048d6f95c955a8bfaae.png

    Obviously there are numerous other data sources that need to be looked at to gauge this prediction, including current and observed OLR plots, for example, but that's just part of the forecasting process to verify whether NWP is on to something with this signal. From experience with this data mind, I would put money on this rise AAM occurring, eventually. 

    For now though there is little evidence for this occuring in the immediate time-frame and just using the tendency plot to highlight this, it remains a very stagnant AAM pattern across the N Hem at the moment, but with plenty of 'goings on' in the S Hem linked to thier winter or course. 

    image.thumb.gif.927ecf18a40e060dc75f9248ac50ad88.gif

    As recent posts have suggested though and as Tamara has well documented too, a change is still in the cards, not a case of 'if' but a case of 'when' still if you ask me. Yes, the mid-July change may well not happen now, but with the school holidays looming around the 24th onwards, a usual comical period of the summer when the proverbial 'wheels come off', this year could well be the opposite and more summer-like patterns return just at the right time. Prior, however and it's a text-book summer trough pattern that will dominate at least until mid-July, but I still fully believe that this will not end up evolving like a 2007/2012 scenario. 

    Plenty of summer left for those longing for higher MSLP to return, but extra patience is required and this just highlights how forecasts, both short and long-term can and have to evolve and be modified, at times, due to mother nature. 

    Cheers, Matt. 

     

    An Optimistic post, amongst the doom on here.
    Perhaps this post should be the start of the new thread.. Summer Part 2!

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Downpour said:

    The GFS 06z is a peach for most of mainland Britain weekend of 8 July. Brings in a heatwave for the south and warm or very warm conditions throughout England. Low swirls around aimlessly to the NW pulling up warm conditions from the south. 

    A few runs have shown this scenario now. So while not the form horse, it cannot be discounted. 

    That's very much what I want. 2 outdoor events that day. Watching the model runs closely.

    • Like 2

    Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

    in Midlands Weather Discussion

    Posted

    20 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    The complete opposite here, full on grey slate cloud, but now at 1pm it’s just starting to thin, I still can’t see Mr Sunshine though 🤗

    You couldn't believe it was the same day yesterday.

    we had the same in the morning, with quite a chilly wind too. About midday it broke and was a glorious afternoon.. Think I overdid the sun though!

    Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

    in Midlands Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Metwatch said:

    Rainfall for this month has breached 100mm today, and it's currently at 101mm. I think this March locally will be the wettest since at least 2018 (113mm) and maybe since 1981 looking at past data.

    110mm maybe reachable for the final value given forecast next few days. 

    What was the summer of 81 like (looking at old videos of the ashes it wasn't great) but 18 was a stormer..

    Where's the trend?

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