[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Thanks Briciu..

With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at such a terrible time of the year.

Hey..Xmas aint gonna be the same for me and I know that it won't be gr8 for many others on here also.. so I send you my best wishes.

I think my Dad would have wanted me to keep up with my passion for the weather,as he never liked to see me unhappy..so I will try to keep up with the occasional bit of input.

Don't get so downhearted over the models not really going for a cold and snowy Xmas! This is just a small part of the Winter duration....and we are here for the long haul.

I've noticed the mogrep 6z ens have a fair bit of support for colder around the big day, if it's cold enough or are there enough disturbances in the flow for snow will be the big question.

It's into the New Year where things could shake up... there are some signs of the strat taking a hit and just one look at that met update,with the hints of a more prolonged cold snap shows there models are perhaps sensing it out.

In the meantime folks try and enjoy your Xmas festivities and remember that a milder Xmas period means nothing for how the rest of the Winter could shape up.

God bless you all.

So sorry Matt, lost my Dad this year too he was my hero. My thoughts are with you my friend stay strong for the others around you. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Xmas day from the JMA, anything warmer than this will be a disappointment

If a cold spell can materialise for Xmas,  today needs to be moving day - I’m not holding my breath obviously, but I still think there’s a v v slim chance!! 

 

The famous KMA model is on board

Twiggy was a model but I don’t think even she is on board this morning mate. Disappointed with the start to the day. Come on JMA

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As it stands North of the border has a good chance of a white Xmas.

Rest of us need the pattern further south.

Those south of London need a miracle!

 

The Christmas rules are either 75% of the UK get snow and cold or nobody gets it soz but that’s the law 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

14 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Attacker - WAA  into Greenland

Being an Arsenal fan like myself - Akin to waking up the next day after the GFS pub run the night before

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

29 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Football, meteorology, they are the practically the same thing. 

VAR (Very Average Run)

Lines Person, (fax chart compiler)

Goalkeeper (Atlantic block)

High press (Anti Cyclone)

And so on

 

Extra time - Looking for snow in March 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Apparently some in the US forums are bemoaning the complete lack of cold this Christmas….looks to me like for 50,000,000+ in the NE, things are going to come good just at the right time once again….what a surprise eh?

Typical eh can you suggest a good USA forum I can follow ? I’ve googled some but they don’t seem very busy. Is there a Netweather equivalent? 
sorry for being OT guys n gals. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

herds of wildebeest sweeping majestically by, the hanging gardens of babylon.

Sydney Opera House perhaps? loved that show. I for one am looking for an extended dry spell as I’m just 17mm from my wettest ever year (rain records kept since 1988)

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

New model alert!

The KMA (South Korean model) is now available on Meteociel.  According to the blurb it is based on the UKMO unified model.  It runs to T288, and if it carries on like this, it’s a winner!

I’ve just bought my brand new car from there ‘Hyundai’ so I’m all in as it’s a fabulous car what does it mean Mike when it says it’s based on UKMO ‘unified’ model?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

8 minutes ago, John88B said:

I can't remember ever being stuck under such a slow moving area of rain for so long. In fact most of the day it's not moved at all!

It's slowly edging east now but the met office still have us down for another 5 hours of rain from it.

The amount of rain that has fallen must be impressive because it's been heavy and steady here since last night pretty much.

43mm here now John, I was at Berkley vale motors earlier today and took the lane opposite to Latteridge to get home, if you like driving through floods John those lanes were fun whole stretches under water and rivers running out from fields. I have an SUV but I wouldn’t take a mini down there

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

14 minutes ago, Wilxy said:

I’ve not long drove through henfield road, and it was flooding pretty bad down there it will be absolute chaos on the roads this evening!

Yes I’ve been through that today, also the road from Yate into Coalpit Heath is badly flooded and holding back the traffic. Fun drive through the lanes towards Latteridge earlier the lane in places properly flooded for 200m or more (quite fun actually it’s times like these that brings the child out in me)

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

4 hours ago, AWD said:

What an awful awful day here today.  Cold, wet and miserable.

We seem to be stuck on a pivoting area of heavy rain, stretching essentially up the M5 corridor.

Hi AWD we are currently on 40mm of rain today (Frampton Cotterell) I’ve kept rain records since 1988 and it’s already a top 5 daily fall event ️ 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

3 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Rubbish day here. Jess tired as in bed late last night. S bouncing off the walls. Hubby fed up of seeing kids mess and saying I'm the main instigator of it having a go at me. Getting rid of the cot bed tomorrow. So I've prepared that to go. Need to change Js bedding now and then clean the bathroom. Feeling stressed out. I put Christmas music on and everyone sodded off upstairs. No Christmas cheer here. 

Come up to Frampton Cotterell Beka, I’ve had Heart Xmas on since late Oct and the outside lights switched on Friday including a 12ft Xmas tree indoor tree and garlands been up a week what’s your poison? I have a bottle of Baileys on the go or I have Gin Merry Xmas I’ll post a shot of my indoor Xmas village I’ve just finished 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

5 hours ago, kumquat said:

CrackerJack! How's yer frozen cabbages  

Maybe we'll get a few flakes tomorrow night?

Hey Kumquat I’m good thanks. Got in the car and chased up to the Cross hands A46 last night as my Aurora alarm flashed red about 11pm and when I got up there it was freezing fog One day I will see it

for this night mate. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

30 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

It's Friday its five to 5 it's.....hang on a sec that's crackerjack 

It's Friday It's quarter 2 to 12 It's chucking out time at the pubs....or it's GFS time that is I must admit not shocking me with it's output,only surprising a little on how quickly things move on.

The blocking on offer is sublime and this is getting a seriously regular sign now...we've seen the met update today hinting at what could come,and its being reflected in the output right now.

It seriously looked like a mild sweep of air would set us back several weeks....well that's the worry when it gets a foot in...but the models seem more keen in sending us into Winter proper as the month progresses! In all honesty I've not seen so much blocking since 2010 appearing.

This may seem premature but I'm thinking there's a good possibility of Exeter upgrades in the days ahead.

Come on folks our time is due and let's get right behind these possibilities and keep the netweather servers steaming.

 

 

You called Matt ?

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

47 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Haha I thought you might be. Are u in a trance-dance? I see your profile mentions you like that sorta music groovy grandad eh? could always join me at the Avicii experience

Yeh love Trance and I’m listening to it right now before I sleep have a great trip and enjoy the cold and snow  

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

23 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Yeah as its a model forum discussion and we have a couple Scandis in here good to get a bit of model analysis like Norwegian shortwaves going elsewhere also, we get input from members that live in Portugal and Alps and south of France etc so why not for there

It was a joke Kentspur as you have mentioned you are going there a few hundred times already I’m jealous take me with you

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

Ouch -10 to -12c 850s where I will be some other output Ive seen show -16s looks great timing for a snow lover to visit Scandinavia

Do you know someone going to Scandinavia soon Kentspur?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

This is just getting ridiculous now!!!!u gota think one of these models aint picking up the correct signal west/southwest of greenland!!!must be a reason for it!data maybe?!

Isn’t that the issue (Data) between Xmas day and New year Sheikhy ? too early?  I’ll get my coat 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Beautiful day here again so a great opportunity to take a stroll around Westonbirt Arboretum and see the gorgeous colours once more before they disappear for another year oh and it was my dogs 3rd birthday today

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

4 hours ago, Somerset girl said:

Went out for a drive in the countryside today, the leaves are still on the trees , but the colours are beautiful, golds, reds , pale green . 

There were heavy showers around so we were treated to some rainbows as well as beautiful views .

It's decidedly chilly this afternoon / evening  but it's been a beautiful day . 

Lovely day here too, though with the odd heavy shower thrown in making for yet another rainbow day but a lovely dog walk all the same. 

I’ve seen so many rainbows this year I can’t recall another year like it. 

[Storm Ciarán]

2 minutes ago, GSP said:

Some exceptional photo’s, thank you.

That second one looks unreal!

Thank you GSP, look at these next two, this huge slab of stone was torn off the seat by the sea wall about 20ft away. Incredible power 

[Storm Ciarán]

Well I went to Dawlish this morning to see what was happening and I wasn’t disappointed 

[Storm Ciarán]

20 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Reports coming in that the wind is that strong that a Ryanair Plane has landed in the city it was actually meant to

That’s what us Brits are famous for we laugh in the face of adversity love it Come on UK  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

41 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Initially it seemed like windward coasts would get the worst of the conditions, now the easterly seems to have been lessened (especially further south where that chillier airmass never arrives). 
Now we are face with an area of low pressure becoming slow moving across the UK and much larger amounts of uncertainty regarding rainfall.

GFS up to Saturday evening;

 

Southern England looks pretty bad along with an area from the Firth of Forth to Aberdeen.

Arpege

 

Aside from Eastern Scotland, this shows a very different story. Eastern areas are badly hit whilst towards the south west things are not too bad.

The red warning looks right but aside from Western Scotland (Which looks like escaping without much rain), any other area could be given a proper soaking depending on the behaviour of that low.

I’m N/E of Bristol and Arpege shows 20-30mm over next few days on that chart and as I type I’m on 20mm past few hours already

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

3 hours ago, 78/79 said:

First Mother in law would probably disagree with you, she reckons her broomstick is freezing at that time of year .

Careful what you say as I can feel a cold ‘Spell’ coming your way