Crackerjack
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16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:Looking a bit further ahead of an unsettled week next week, the ECM clusters have this at T192-T240:
Cluster 1 here with 34 members heralds a return to warmer and more settled weather, whereas cluster 2 with 17 members stays unsettled.
T264+:
Clusters 1 and 2 (totalling 36 members) continue towards something settled for the last week in September, not so cluster 3. The regimes plot still shows a signal for blocking over Scandi (red) once the unsettled Atlantic spell (blue) is done, so I would expect the overall CET for September to be very high when the month is done and dusted, be interesting to see if any records are broken there.
Would you Adam and Eve it, apparently I’ve been a Netweather member for 10 years! Just want to take the opportunity to say a big ‘thanks’ to everyone who posts here, I have learned so much about all aspects of the weather from the contributions from everyone, it is a great community to be a part of.
Here’s to the next 10 years, all the very best.
Mike
Thanks Mike and congratulations mate. You are one of my go to posts and have been for a long while, always concise and well written thoughts that makes it easier for a novice like me to read and understand
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18 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:
As someone who lives in the south, I saw falling snow on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The garden I was working in on Friday had 2 inches of snow on it until lunchtime. Sure, it wasn’t sub zero all week, and I wasn’t snowed in, but this hasn’t been a ‘normal’ March here. Not 2018 either, of course, but not normal for the last 30 years. Just an observation from someone who’s also worked outside for the last 15 years.
Spot on
I’m just down the road from you and I’ve enjoyed this March so far 
and I think we are classed as lowland south 
Models are still showing some transient wintery potential going forward and until they don’t I’m up for the chase. Had some fabulous frosts here to this winter (sub -9c) and that’s the best winter in a long time.
my flip flops come out in May thanks until then I keep the boots close at hand
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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:
Another chance next Tuesday
I’ll chase it Ali
I’m waiting a day for roads to clear a bit then thinking of driving north tomorrow pm to go and soak up the snowy scenery. I’ll chase until I run out of fuel money, love it
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Just now, SussexSnowman said:
Loving the pictures. Whilst it might not be winter, it’s safe to assume that everyone over the last few months has had a dose of snow
Who doesn’t love dog related snow videos. Here’s mine from December when we got the white stuff. My Westie just loves it! She may be getting on in years and hampered by arthritis, she’s still young at heart and I hope she has more snow days left.
Yep
I had 7 days in December then spent a week in NE Scotland in January (lots of snow) and a nice snowfall Wednesday. Even started snowing again this morning so I’m well happy especially as I live in lowland south. I know some are playing down yesterdays snow warnings and missed out but don’t let that disguise the fact that also many areas have just got pasted and many roads are blocked. It is the UK after all and March so good effort. Love it 
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41 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:
Just wow
Show off
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2 minutes ago, RhHh said:
Keep dreaming. Too mild to the South and West.
There’s every chance we will get more snow here Friday am, from the cold surging back around from the departing low pressure. Really enjoying this spell here I must admit.
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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
I’m Just wondering if on Friday those in the midlands and south of there will actually see their best covering of snow - looks like a few hours of potential
Fergie showed the map for Friday and said it’s one to watch as we get a glancing blow of possible snow as it pulls away east
I did well here south of you Ali today and I drove around pm but ran out of the snow up on the common above Nailsworth. I was going to venture up your way but would have run out of time & light. Did you get much today Ali?
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45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time ) anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps
others look way off
My weather station is in Yate near Bristol 225asl and we had 7cm and been snowing virtually all day though wet snow so not adding to depth. I’ve driven around all pm and I ran out of snow north of Stroud. Sweet spot was M4 junction 18 up the road from me where there is at least 8-10cm and that was still there an hour ago. So the chart was accurate for my area anyhow.
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I’m going back to waiting for the full run to complete as I’ve just read in the last 10 minutes No backtrack, starting to backtrack and that’s it it’s over posts
despite my age I’m still learning but not sure who in here are the teachers and who are the supply standins 
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Just now, Allseasons-si said:
Welcome to confused.com central mate
you haven’t missed much
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Ok I’ve come to the conclusion that an x netweather community member is responsible for the GFS update as it’s producing beautiful charts like this for us, SM do you have any comment to make ?
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Cracking rainbow
again this afternoon near Bristol between the showers
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46 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
It’s difficult not to be very cheered by the trend across the ensembles as we look forward to the Christmas weekend, getting within range now for meaningfully assessing the potential for further wintry weather.
Looking at the 6z GFS ensemble mean at day 8:
Critically, those aren’t Iberian heights any more. They’ve been shunted east to the central Mediterranean and that’s allowed the long wave trough to extend all the way south to the Azores. Lower heights and cold air pushing south over the UK and Ireland. Indeed, there’s a lot of cold air stacked up to our north, eager to spill south. Notice the mean T850 as low as -8 degrees over the north of Scotland, all of us below zero. The point is these are means, so the -4 degree isotherm running across the middle of the UK and Ireland is a good signal for cold air to be reaching all parts at times. It certainly doesn’t look mild.
Low pressure to our southwest, with a shortwave trough extending northeast towards southwest England. We can draw the front on that imaginary fax chart in our heads with ease! A southern battleground event a reasonable possibility from the feel of this chart. And looking upstream to the west - as the pattern moves west-east, there is plenty of cold air yet to feed in from this broad trough.
The GFS is not on its own either - here are the 0z ECM ensemble mean charts for Christmas night, which are very similar.
0z GEM for Christmas Day? I rest my case!
I see little reason for despondency at this stage. Far from it. Though in the event we are not going to get exactly what these mean charts are showing, with them showing this at day 8, and in such good consensus, we are likely to get something very much like it. And if that’s the case, this is clearly a very good setup to be viewing in the run-up to Christmas.
The combination of an unstable northerly flow, with fronts moving south embedded in cold air, and low pressure to our southwest feeding up moisture into that cold air, means that we’re all in the game for some seasonal weather over the festive period.
To be honest, I’m seriously trying to suppress my glee
because there are few things more special in our weather than the prospect of snow over Christmas and right now at least it looks like we’re all in with a fair chance this year.
Great post Cambrian and just think all this and winter doesn’t even start until Wednesday
even though it seems like we have been in the chase for months already.
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2 minutes ago, khodds said:
Is it meant to pivot?
sorry I’m in a childish mood there’s snow on the ground
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3 hours ago, John88B said:
Still snowing here. Nice covering.
Nice festive snow here down the road to you John too Frampton Cotterells first snow of 22/23 winter and first of many falls I hope
️
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8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Run of the day for me is the GEM, because of the locked in nature of how it ends, all the PV is essentially over to the Asian side, and potentially coming directly at us! There is nothing left to speak of on the American side, and zero, zilch, nada from the Atlantic. And we are already well and truly in the freezer by this point.
If Gem did beer Matt, oh wait they do
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1 hour ago, sheikhy said:Hi guys as i mentioned a few days ago granny was on her last legs!!well she let go this morning and returned to the lord!!have a good day guys!catch you later!!!
Weather seems so insignificant at times like this Sheikhy, cherish your memories and god bless to you and all your family at this time
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6 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Good night everyone and remember to book a trip to go to Greenland just in case of a west based -VE NAO so you can put it into a more favourable position with a big Meteorological poking stick then make the quick hop back over to the now snow covered UK
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Good night Eagle eye
you have school in the morning wish I was young again 
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11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
The ECM like the GFS is SENSATIONAL. No other word will suffice. Cold blocking LOCKED IN.
I now work part time for a certain ‘supermarket’ as a delivery driver….up at 0400. Enjoy the 18z, the models are showing excellence, I just see tweaks of excellence going forward and no real dramas….Good night
BFTP
I hope they provide you with snow tyres and a 4x4 delivery van BFTP
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1 hour ago, minus10 said:
Wow..
...to bed on that image....
Make sure you delete your history then
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Great thunderstorm in Frampton Cotterell earlier. Nearly 27mm + of rain here again today.
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2 hours ago, John88B said:
Incredibly heavy rain for the last hour here in Thornbury and more to come looking at the radar. Definitely going to be flooding issues in the area tonight.
A few miles south of here will be wondering what all the fuss is about.
Great storm here in Frampton Cotterell just south of you mate I’ll add video in a minute.
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35 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
Hi BFTP. Sorry but this is not what the ECM shows. The ECM has the high sliding away south. This is an Atlantic dominated snapshot at T240 of the 0z ECM:
In some ways the UKMO is even more progressive than the ECM. This is T144 and this is certainly not a serious block and it certainly is being shifted:
So BFTP & others saying solid block out East and not budging, then Mark & others saying this isn’t the case at all, and all in the last hour so assume everyone looking at the same data sets. I’m confused.com this morning as these are my go to trusted posters at odds with each other
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I’m off to Inverness thankfully