AtlanticFlamethrower

wait... PPN intensified. moderate dishwasher snow out there.

light ppn drifting about from the unit steaming towards Danbury... if it doesn't get heavier it would appear we have clipped the southern end.

after missing them all for days we finally we got hit by a short, sharp, blustery shower. light-moderate blizzard, in fact. this means South Woodham has hit the 2 inch mark, and looks set to break a recent historical record for snow depth. i wasn't here for all winters in the 00s but in my experience we've not had over 2 inches here since the early 1990s. pm me if you live in south woodham and can improve my record. the sig is based on photographic evidence.

note that the GFS quirk is to overplay the strength of lows. at T78 the low was weaker than projected in 12Z and the heights to the north slightly further West. bin the rest of the run; will change.

ECM shows evenly fought cold/mild battle and reload from Sandinavia. This evolution could develop into unevenly fought cold/mild battle and reload, in which case more areas on the margins retain snow depth from the first spell. 12Z JMA T168 00z GEM This is the evolution to watch out for IMO. GME 12Z T144 Same pattern as "the jam" JMA and GEM

Retrieved 8th January. Important change: 7.5C line has now come down to the London estuary. This means the waters there are down -3.5C from 11C in late December. This will help lower the marginality threshold, snow will be able to fall and stick closer to the coasts from slightly less cold feeds. Waters around The Wash now 4-5C. Channel, Northern part of North Sea slightly cooler.

yep South Woodham will miss the snow train just like last night by a few miles. too far West to catch the NEly Kent streamer. A SW/NE diagonal through Rayleigh is probably the threshold line this frequent and all too frustrating kind of set up.

another snow train coming. Last night's was 5 miles wide and it missed south woodham by a whisker. hit rayleigh and leigh on sea. what will happen this time?

Wonderful dry powder snow on my car this morning! All of it, even the stuff that had fallen as wet snow is now "dry." Much easier to get rid off too! -3C here.

Moderate gentle snow here... first large flakes, snow moderate-heavy small flakes. Presumably because it's so cold and dry it doesn't seem to be settling yet on the bare patch on neighbour's roof. I used to think snow was such simple stuff. Now moderate again.

00z GEM keeps the block and the cold spell going. Overnight snow turning to rain on Sunday for the East.

If KW was in Grays right now he would be bitterly disappointed. Just missed 'em.

Great pictures. Shown some to a relative of mine who is out of the country in a rather exotic but snowless location. Said she was missing the snow... not that there is much to miss here! BTW Asda no longer owned by Walmart, alas, so the evil empire must be on hold. Just taken over by some obscure northern company - north foods? something like that.

Thanks for that. Very funny and very true. Year and a bit ago in Borehamwood got about 3 inches of snow... in October!!! BTW must have left the thread before reading your earlier comment. Sorry about that!

South Woodham reporting in. Still not aboard the shower train. I'm on side near to Hullbridge too. How close... could the rest of it just come a bit more west...?

We've been involved in nearly every event but incredibly have one of the lowest snow depths because every time the PPN has just skimmed us. I should update my sig because we now have about 1 3/4 inches.

Okay, it's clearly to the West of Leigh on Sea. The very tip of SE Essex has a PPN micro climate of its own... NEly usually extends to Leigt on Sea with South Woodham most definitely beyond the threshold! But in this case even Leigh misses out

I The snow streamer is so thin it may have bisected a route between South Woodham - to the NNW - and Leigh on Sea!

Snow stopped in South Woodham. There I was thinking this streamer could take us over 2 inches!

I wonder, is South Woodham just on the edge again or are we going to get some heavy snow out of this streamer? light-moderate snow outside now...

12z ECM looking much more like a Reload rather than a Slow Thaw. Iceland-Scandi high might not have to go to Greenland, it could elongate above the British Isles pulling down an Arctic high, then retrogress NE to become a Scandi and fire over a viciously cold NEly. Or the high could be progressively moved towards Greenland as ECM gets a better grip on what is happening. I think 12z ECM is a big boost to hopes/fears of Reload, with perhaps only a minor thaw or none at all in between.

12z ECM looking much more like a Reload rather than a Slow Thaw. Iceland-Scandi high might not have to go to Greenland, it could elongate above the British Isles pulling down an Arctic high, then retrogress NE to become a Scandi and fire over a viciously cold NEly. Or the high could be progressively moved towards Greenland as ECM gets a better grip on what is happening. I think 12z ECM is a big boost to hopes/fears of Reload, with perhaps only a minor thaw or none at all in between.

Has it been the first to call the reload? 06z GFS ensembles shows two members going for a similar reload solution... GFS spots trend, will ECM run with it?

There are only two realistic evolutions IMO - slow breakdown, and reload. 12z ECM going to be important - let's see if it is picking up signs of a reload. It's definitely no going to show a wrecking ball low blasting the block to smitherines in a few days. Too well established, too much entrenched cold.

GFS is out on its own with WLY breakdown T144. Bin it. We have three paradigms here: Slow Thaw / Fast Thaw / Reload. GFS wants to do the Fast Thaw. The only way you can get a Fast Thaw as things are set up is with an Atlantic low mincing the block and whipping tropical air from the SW. If we've learned anything about this winter and GFS, it's not going to happen: the low will be more south than progged and less powerful. There is no support for Fast Thaw. Slow Thaw is the main alternative from the Met O/ECM/GEM/NOGAPS. This solution will be nearer the mark at T144 with the large Scandi-Icelandic block - but where on from the Scandi-Iceland high? Do we get gradual breakdown from a succession of lows, each time moving the UK snow line further inland and to altitude, or a Reload as the high moves North West to Greenland? Reload doesn't yet have ECM model support but GFS this morning toyed with the idea. GP I think is thinking about a reload. Watch this space! Definitely no support for Fast Thaw next Wednesday, although very possible coastal regions may lose snow - even today we lost snow on roofs in sun. Bare tiles.