AtlanticFlamethrower

Don't think it's cherry-picking because models aren't proof of anything. JB only has one forecast and if the models all show different forecasts he's going to have to find some way to decide which of them is most accurate. How's he to do that? He's going to pick the one closest to his own forecast. Otherwise, why draw up your own forecast and not just draw lots to decide which model is best? JB's using the models to illustrate his forecast. His forecast is for a warm-up over UK. Average temperatures. He's not using the models to provide proof of the accuracy oft his forecast (if he is he shouldn't be) - models aren't proof of anything, they're just a more convoluted way of deriving a forecast.

Don't the models suggest for much of the winter we'll get the pattern below, with a Euro high bringing ACG (anti-cyclonic gloom) to Britain? JB's latest forecast. In the chart above I'm not illustrating what he said but extrapolating from the model. Edited to add: If the above is a repeating pattern for the winter then it might be better for our chances for snow if it is a Scandinavian high retrogressing SW rather than an Azores high moving NE.

6.2C

Great post, as always. Will look forward to following stratospheric events this winter. J.B. (Accuweather) thinks we will get an average temperature but a drier than average winter. That forecast doesn't rule out a cold week because drier than average conditions necessitate that high pressure isn't far from the UK. My expectation is for repeating 'toppler' highs, period of Euro high sitting over the UK, and one hit or miss Easterly event from a loaded continent in January or February if we get a helpful Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

Updated list - 7.2C: Bucks Snow 8.5C: White Xmas 8.9C: Adam Jones 416 9.3C: Na Damanta Sam 9.5C: Polar Gael 9.6C: Barry 9.7C: Lomond Snowstorm 9.7C: Scott 3108 9.7C: Backtrack 9.8C: Nu Design 9.8C: Snowstorm 1 9.8C: Wales 123098 9.8C: Optimus Prime 9.8C: Radiating Dendrite (Missed deadline) 9.9C: Cheeky_Monkey 9.9C: Pjb 120 9.9C: summer blizzard 9.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 10.0C: Mullender 83 10.1C: Koppite 10.2C: Kidlington 10.2C: Tom D 10.2C: Snow Go 10.2C: Stew Fox 10.2C: Aderyn Coch 10.2C: Glacier Point 10.2C: Polar Continental (Missed deadline) 10.3C: Virtual Sphere 10.3C: Polar Side 10.3C: Kentish Man 10.3C: Ben_Cambs 10.4C: Paul T 10.5C: Steve B 10.5C: Milhouse 10.5C: The Watcher 10.5C: Jonathan F 10.5C: Stationary Front 10.5C: JACKONE 10.5C: artfularshavin 10.5C: Climate Man 10.6C: The PIT 10.6C: Lady Of The Storm 10.6C: reef 10.7C: Paranoid 10.7C: Stargazer 10.7C: Norrance 10.7C: Gavin P 10.7C: sundog 10.8C: Sunlover 10.8C: Fozfoster 10.8C: Stu_London 10.8C: Thundery wintery showers 10.8C: StormMad26 10.9C: Bottesford 10.9C: Terminal Moraine 10.9C: David Snow 10.9C: Jack Wales 10.9C: Don 10.9C: Tonyh 11.0C: Nimbilus 11.0C: Pete Tattum 11.0C: Damian Slaw 11.0C: DR Hosking 11.1C: Snowmaiden 11.1C: Lilbrockie 11.1C: DuncanMcAlister (Missed deadline) 11.2C: Snow-Man 2006 11.2C: Mr_Data 11.2C: Blizzards 11.2C: Sufc 11.2C: markbayley 11.2C: coram 11.3C: snowmaiden 11.3C: Kentish Man 11.4C: CroatianWeather 11.5C: Suffolk Boy 11.8C: Roger J Smith 11.8C: Chionomaniac 12.5C: Richard R 14.0C: Craig Evans

7.2C: Bucks Snow 8.5C: White Xmas 8.9C: Adam Jones 416 9.3C: Na Damanta Sam 9.5C: Polar Gael 9.6C: Barry 9.7C: Lomond Snowstorm 9.7C: Scott 3108 9.7C: Backtrack 9.8C: Nu Design 9.8C: Snowstorm 1 9.8C: Wales 123098 9.8C: Optimus Prime 9.8C: Radiating Dendrite (Missed deadline) 9.9C: Cheeky_Monkey 9.9C: Pjb 120 9.9C: summer blizzard 9.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 10.0C: Mullender 83 10.1C: Koppite 10.2C: Kidlington 10.2C: Tom D 10.2C: Snow Go 10.2C: Stew Fox 10.2C: Aderyn Coch 10.2C: Glacier Point 10.2C: Polar Continental (Missed deadline) 10.3C: Virtual Sphere 10.3C: Polar Side 10.3C: Kentish Man 10.3C: Ben_Cambs 10.4C: Paul T 10.5C: Steve B 10.5C: Milhouse 10.5C: The Watcher 10.5C: Jonathan F 10.5C: Stationary Front 10.5C: JACKONE 10.5C: artfularshavin 10.5C: Climate Man 10.6C: The PIT 10.6C: Lady Of The Storm 10.6C: reef 10.7C: Paranoid 10.7C: Stargazer 10.7C: Norrance 10.7C: Gavin P 10.7C: sundog 10.8C: Sunlover 10.8C: Fozfoster 10.8C: Stu_London 10.8C: Thundery wintery showers 10.8C: StormMad26 10.9C: Bottesford 10.9C: Terminal Moraine 10.9C: David Snow 10.9C: Jack Wales 10.9C: Don 10.9C: Tonyh 11.0C: Nimbilus 11.0C: Pete Tattum 11.0C: Damian Slaw 11.0C: DR Hosking 11.1C: Snowmaiden 11.1C: Lilbrockie 11.1C: DuncanMcAlister (Missed deadline) 11.2C: Snow-Man 2006 11.2C: Mr_Data 11.2C: Blizzards 11.2C: Sufc 11.2C: markbayley 11.2C: coram 11.3C: snowmaiden 11.4C: CroatianWeather 11.5C: Suffolk Boy 11.8C: Roger J Smith 11.8C: Chionomaniac 12.5C: Richard R 14.0C: Craig Evans

9.9C

I'd like to significantly change my prediction to 14.7C (from 14C), which is a degree or so above average. With these Indian summer charts it's hard to see where a below average month is going to come from so I think my first guess was too cautious... I might still be on the low side!

14C

15.6C

17.7C

15.4C

Sudden flurry of activity, and around Katla too

I don't know where the depth data is but the magnitude was no greater than 2, mostly likely 1. It might have been the one that was zero. So nothing necessarily to worry about, but obviously if it happens again and again, we need to keep watching it.

Katla

You sure? They must be back because here they are again.

10.6C

Latest small Earthquakes are towards the Katla side of the glacier. Are these caused by magma movements underground?

I don't understand how people think that jet engines of a fighter plane are similar to those of a large commercial airliner. For the same level of dust concentration there is obviously much more stress on the smaller engine than the larger. Fighter jet engines fly faster, at higher temperature. Over 1 hour in an area of low ash concentration, the length of a training exercise, fighter jets gulp in much more air and dust than planes which travel half their speed for the same amount of time (or in fact less time) in the same area.

One thing they have done is raised the tolerance threshold above which it is considered unsafe to fly. It was about 200 micrograms per cubic meter, the threshold is now 2000 mpcm. I posted the new ash map in the "No Fly" thread.

New ash map posted on BBC. The red/brown bit is the new no-fly-zone.

I'm cynical. Perhaps this is political theatre designed to end on Wednesday in time for the next party leaders' debate? A lot of the ash is precipitating out over the ocean between UK and Iceland.

looked outside - crescent moon is red.

anyone got a picture of Eyjaflallajokull from ground level today?

The Met Office's London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre is only one of two places in the world which specialises in tracking volcanic ash using its NAME model. The other place is I think is in America and they use a different model called HYSPLIT that is not purely theoretical - i.e. unlike the Met O model it incorporates RW data. Under European law which was agreed should be based on the IACO blueprint, the the decision to open or close the "Single European Airspace" is taken by Eurocontrol on the back of information provided by the VAAC. I think it says that here. ANSP = Air Navigation Service Provider CFMU = Central Flow Management Unit