AtlanticFlamethrower

Brickfielder's charts show the pattern of British weather flip-flops quite frequently. "Climatic Lurch" is a misleading phrase intended to scare and is unscientific in that it over-plays the significance of the contemporary climate in the history of weather. To describe a climate that is frequently changing, and has changed significantly many times in UK's corner of the global neighbourhood even within the last 100 years , as undergoing a "lurch" is nonsensical. For example, this chart shows rather than random year-on-year fluctuation between stormy (mild) and calm (cold) weather, there are regimes of stormy years (winter westerlies) and calm years (blocked, easterlies), some lasting over a decade. Some years do suddenly break away from the pattern (e.g. around 1960). I would call these years that suddenly break-away from the pattern a lurch from normal. On the other hand the "climatic regimes" seem to evolve gradually from storminess to calm. Between the early 20C stormy years and the blocked 1960s there is an intermediate less stormy 1930s-50s. No lurch. Gradual evolution. I think part of the problem is simply human perception: their is a huge population of "babyboomers" who grew up in the 1960s during an anomalously cold period of British weather, which has skewed their judgement of normal winter. Over-all BF's chart shows runs of stormy (mild, westerlies) years are more frequent, and longer in duration, than runs of calm years. Early 20C is particularly notable for being stormy, 60s blocked. After the little ice age, North Atlantic sea temperatures probably were much colder than today. So to today: add to a slightly above normal westerly, stormy regime an anomously warm north atlantic and north sea you have the recipe for an extended period of warm autumnal winters. The opposite to what many older British people are used to but subjective feelings of "normal" are not very scientific. And we have understood all this without mentioning "global warming".

I still think the majority of that cold pool is caused by upwelling. Did you notice how the warm upwelling to the east of it has grown at the same time?

Gray-Wolf The cold anomalies off new zealand may be explained as upwelling, such as here, from early Jan, two years ago. Exactly the same pattern, NZ sandwiched between purple anomalies - however this time to the south is a warm anomaly. Compared to now I suspect you are right about the cold anomalies being caused by summer melt ice water. I wouldn't message BAS unless you have a specific question to ask them. They must know the SST situation and the theories of shelf collapse and there is nothing they can do about it even if you're right.

11.55C The North Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while the North Sea has yet to cool down from summer. I don't expect winter to arrive early in Europe. Throughout 2007 air will arrive significantly modified by the warm seas and take longer to cool. So I expect a hot summer like last year but perhaps with an August that actually delivers.

The NH total is just shy of average.The positive anomalies are compared to last year; you would suspect this means conditions at this moment are more conducive for ice formation than last year.

carinthian, how are things at the frozen pole now in your opinion? I've had a brief glance at the latest charts; total NH ice area now close to average. There must be some serious, I mean, serious, cold there because many areas have positive ice gains! (Compared to last year). Kara sea - big positive anomaly. Laptev sea - big positive anomaly. Barents sea - significant positive anomaly. Greenland sea - significant positive anomaly. Baffin/Newfoundland - significant positive anomaly. Arctic basin - significant positive anomaly East Siberian - no anomaly. Beaufort Sea - no anomaly. Canadian archipeligo - no anomaly. Hudson Bay - no anomaly. Chukchi sea - massive negative anomaly (currently icing over accounting for most recent gains?) Overall: amazing cold! How high will it go? Perhaps Europe has taken a hit for the arctic. Lots of cold air up there now... some point it will have to give you would think.

Catastrophes? We already know you think it's The End Of The World As We Know It but this view is in a minority, globally speaking. It's one thing to make massive generalisations about politicians and another to forget their job in a democracy is actually to reflect popular opinion. So, this can mean some short-term considerations outweighing long term. Is this a bad thing? It's what the public wants. Maybe you really mean to say is you would gladly bypass democratic government if you thought that would alter the Earth's temperature by a couple of degrees celcius. Would not surprise me. Go ahead. Stop being a consumer. Let's see what happens. Remember my internet suggestion? We are more likely to go nuclear power with imported electricity from France and new nuclear power stations. Insitu generation sounds cool, and will provide a portion of our energy, but technology is not at the stage where it can provide for all our energy needs. Best remember Britain needs to adjust its energy supplies for reasons other than "global warming." Biggest challenge is to replace North Sea energy without being screwed every winter by the Russian gas monster.

And then there's smoke; if you lit a fire down a Lascaux rock hole you would become one of the evolutionary T-ends for which my genome is very grateful. Humans succeeded through smart people changing (or adapting to) their enviroment in a smart way. I know a lot of environmentalists are counting the days until bird flu wipes out China and the Sub-Continent. This, like a lot of things I've read, troubles me. People are our best technology. Always has been, always will be. We don't need cars? Why not outlaw street lights, fridges, television, computers too? Ready to take the luddite hammer to baby incubators? I can scarcely imagine what your plans are to return the human race to the age without cars. Enlighten us. Maybe I'm the one with unrealist expectations but I think learning to cope with a little climate change is both possible and better for humanity than bringing back the smilodon skin shorts. There are easier ways to get those 12 inches of white stuff a couple of days a year than reversing technological development. Accountability is something I'd encourage. As a political statement to save the planet how about turning off your internet? I suspect it's much easier to blame someone living far away for life's problems than yourself or a process outside any single individual's control. 1.4 billion Chinese should stay on their bicycles. It's just so much easier to keep a billion in poverty than it is for Europeans to take off a layer of clothing in winter. There is no workable alternative to capitalism. And by capitalism I mean economic relations based on concepts of private ownership, free exchange and heirarchy of value on which capitalism is based. As the failed and bloody socialist experiments of the 20C demonstrate it is impossible for an economic system to operate successfully if one or more of these don't formally exist.

I'll tell you what a lurch is - check out 1736/1745, 1881/1880. In contrast the warming has gone in steps. The recent warming is characterised by not having any cold plunges in between. So it's been up and up.

MCT1 potsy1 rustynailer3 Blackie1 drgl1

Does the velocity of the gulf stream play a significant part in sea ice formation? . Mercator It's like someone will flick a switch. SSTs in the North East Atlantic have been chill so the current fast drift SE of Greenland has probably not melted the sea ice with it's warm water transport. Might it effect synoptics, though?

Here we are - latest chart. Plus Gulf Stream forecasts from Mercator.

Great photos all I have a feeling this race will be a close run thing!

Why did he change his name?

4.9C

You will find my reply on the "Serious discussion" board here.

I can't answer that. :blink: However scanning the last chapter of Introduction to Rampnomics Prof. Snow speculates there may exist an heretofore undiscovered elementary anti-ramp force which one researcher in the field has dubbed "the wimp." It is measured on the SATSINGs scale, of course.

There must be a faultline in the area because I believe the same was said last year and the year before. A cursory glance through my Introduction to Rampnomics 49th edition by Will B. Snow suggests this is possibly due to heightened forecasting movements in the media and meterological community at this time of year which results in a release of ramp. Similar minor events may be expected to reoccur every November until 2011 when, due to a mysterious 16 year rule, there is a much larger ramp.

Are you sure? Goodness. I would have rested easier had you told me you were a liberal democrat. Anyway, back to the discussion.

OFF TOPIC - Sorry, I should have specifically cited the liberal democrats. Suddenly the Corrupt Elites That Control Our Media™ became the Oracle at Delphi... WIB have you been to Kurdistan? They really hate the West there. They much prefered it when they were having their villages shot at from the air by Ba'athist helicopter gunships, family members strung up on meat hooks, whenever they were not being gassed by the thousands with cyanide. This new-fangled voting thing? They say that sucks too. 9/11 cost $1.5bn. Three years in Iraq? Less than $500bn. Plus we turfed out the Hitler and got a sort of democracy and peace for the Kurds and killed a lot of terrorists and invested heavily in education and modernised the Iraqi economy. The Sunnis and Shias are still at each others throats in a low intensity civil war but, hey, what's new? At least the Shias can now fight back. When Saddam invaded Shia Iran one million died in the ensuing war. One million. This wasn't an accident - Saddam was a dictator. Things like that happen when vicious, murdering dictators with huge egos and access to the best military technology oil money can buy want something to do. The corrupt leaders of the local Arab states are delighted a post-Saddam world they use the dollars that would have gone into tanks and artillery pieces can now be spent on more palaces, wives and Mosques in Manchester, Leeds, and Birmingham. When Saddam wasn't invading he was conniving with the UN to steal millions of dollars that should have been going to Iraqi hospitals but instead went into his palaces and those of his two muderous sons. 200k were dying a year under Saddam's reign. What's the death total in three years of occupation 50k? Seems on the numbers alone Iraqis are better off with the occupation. Our troops are doing a great job in a no-win situation. They're getting shot at for no thanks at all; in fact you, WIB, have derided their work for making Iraq a "disaster". If we pull them out, security vanishes and Iraq dissolves into Rwanda. The "NeoCon" project BTW was one supported by a lot of non-neo Cons. Even France.

You just can't help spreading your out-of-the-ballpark far left politics everywhere, can you WIB? The war to remove Saddam was a magnificent achievement and a necessary one as Saddam's links to terrorists was proven and his history of fascist violence extensive. Our brave troops in Afghanistan and Iraq are doing a great job providing security in regions of the world that otherwise would have NONE. Stop whining and support your troops. This is off topic but what WIB said was outrageous. Carry on with the climate discussion.

Thanks for the link. PS: Sod's Law of the grammer Nazi strikes again.

Relative to the troposphere in that region it's a tower. I accept there are other metaphors. I was not aware anyone thought there was an unlimited supply of cold at the pole. However - as far as visualising the arctic cold I find your "cold envelope" phrase helpful. The envelope can't be everywhere at once; if it's colder than average one place it's warmer than average somewhere else. Can I phone a friend? You are suggesting there is more "squeezing" of the balloon at the start of winter. So you could support this theory by demonstrating temperature anomalies across the Arctic are of greater range in November, December than January and Feburary. In Feburary cold is more evenly spread across the Arctic/the balloon flattens. A combination of more air in the balloon, which builds up as winter draws on, and a reduced "squeezing" of said balloon (a blue balloon for better visualisation) means the temperature anomaly range in the Arctic is lower at the end of winter. "Squeezing" lessens across the winter months because the equator cools (the thermal equator retreats). As it was the hot, equatorial air which was doing the "squeezing" of the Arctic balloon the UK has better chance of cold in February because, to return to metaphor, at the end of winter there is more air in the balloon, so as the thermal equator advances Arctic spillover is more likely. Consequently the jet stream is more likely to track further south of the UK. Why the recent trend for late UK winters? The intense, heavy Arctic cold envelope is not being "squeezed" hard enough in December and January - and this small part of the world has been unlucky to miss out, where other parts (Japan, Europe) gained. Interesting topic - deserves it's own thread.

WIB - I can't answer your question. What I will say, apart from the first chart is 18z and the second is 12z, if you imagine the cool pool as a massive tower of dense cold air, at some point the tower will get unstable and topple. Where does it topple? The NH GFS charts shows where. http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/4999/ghqa0.jpg On this run it's fallen further from W Russian than I would like but I think that explains your question.