AtlanticFlamethrower

Ernesto looks like it will get as powerful as it has ever got. Some explosive development since Ernesto left Florida ... CAT 1 for South Carolina.

Northern Light's original (page 5 I think) is far better. Was it just me then? I'm barking mad.

I'm sorry... :o

They are both great images but I'm not ashamed to say I'd prefer Anvil's to win. I actually voted for Anvil's because I will remember July for being hot and, at times, stormy. It's a spectacular lightning photo - all that lightning out of such a little cloud! Incredible. Ed: Well, okay okay. That's what it looks like because of the highlighting effect. The lightning came from the big grey cloud behind and above it.

The low currently over the west Florida panhandle is moving north now so it won't be long before Ernesto follows. In fact has the northwards turn begun already? If so Ernesto will not get a chance to redevelop into a hurricane in the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Eastern panhandle at a push.

Ernesto currently is at the toe end of Cuba, a little further east than predicted in the NOAA graphic. Odds on this making landfall in US are lenghtening.

I think there is a chance it will go as far west between Jamaica and the foot of Cuba. If it does... it will be dead on course with the hottest waters of the Carribean. Were it not for the expected northwards movement, the interference of Cuba (maybe even the mountains), you'd expect Ernesto to bomb into a CAT2/3 quite easily. A long night indeed.

Anyone willing to say this is "over" as far as a major hurricane goes? If it's got to go over Cuba I don't see anything more than TS (perhaps CAT 1) for Florida. It's a mess and a tad over-hyped but for the first hurricane of the 2006 season you can forgive that! Still, for those in the path Ernesto is not to be trifled with.

Can Ernesto stay south of the foot of Cuba? The mountains there will tear it up. If Ernesto can stay south, on a more Wly track, there is a lot of hot water for explosive convection.

On the latest loop Ernesto seems to have gone from a NW to a Wly track. I think it will pass just to the south of Jamaica, putting the Island in the kill zone, but it's a bit early to tell. Looks like it will become a hurricane within a day so the Jamaicans better get off the beach and into storm shelter pretty soon.

That's very worrying. The fate of New Orleans is rather in the lap of the Gods then, this time. Since last year's devastation every time a hurricane comes near the Gulf we think of New Orleans. But New Orleans isn't a hurricane magnet and there's a whole coastline that might be affected. The models are sure to change. If Ernesto manages to get into the Gulf as a water thrashing Cat 3 there also will be an impact on oil production in part of the Gulf and the oil price will rise. Not good for the economy and we shell out more of our $$$$ to Islamonasty oil Sheihks. re: DIY. I've been sand papering - by hand - wallpaper stuck to the downstairs toilet wall. Chewed up my right thumb, otherwise an effective way to scrub away those last islands of glue and paper.

The above track really would be the worse case sernario for the Gulf States. There is a huge hot upwelling that it will need to avoid if New Orleans is not going to have a repeat of Katrina. In what state are the new flood defenses?

Jamaica will get a battering. Latest projections suggest Jamaica will be to the north/east side of the storm track, the quadrent where the winds are strongest. Around Jamaica I expect explosive development from Servere Tropical Storm to Cat 2/3 Hurricane. This much is suggested by heat potential and heat depth maps which show a large source of hot water waiting for Ernesto in the north west portion of the Carribean. There is a lot of moist air surrounding Ernesto as can be seen from greyed parts of this water vapour floater. Wind Shear is always a problem with tropical storm development but on the premise dry shear is more damaging than wet shear this should not stop Ernesto reaching hurricane status before Jamaica. After that, I don't know where it's going. My reading of the steering winds is it's going to bomb the Yucatan and regarding a threat to the US Gulf States it will be a question of how much of Ernesto survives and if it can reform into a hurricane.

Blogspot is free and easy to set up.

The Thames will freeze over by Christmas. What are you looking at me like that for? Here's the link to acbrixton's forecast.... "Christmas: widespread snowfall"

13.9C. Run of Indian Summers to end? (Or return in October?)

Wibs, I'm still trying to work that one out. Incredible photo. LeeKay nice double rainbow - you can really see how it's darker on the outside than on the inside of the rainbow.

LeeKay - incredible sunset! Hay bales!

1. John Cox 3.jpg 2. Paul 1.jpg 3. Rustynailer 3.jpg 4. Simon1 1.jpg 5. Mr_S 2.jpg

Eight smilies?? Member #1 of the Keep Damien Away From Important Buttons, Switches and Knobs Society. PS: Damien, only kidding. Given the alternative career paths I think we can handle enthusiastically delievered weather data! Personally I'm looking forward to "A massive Arctic plunge in October." However I would contest that these charts show conclusively mild lovers are going to "weep," as you put it. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif You can bet these charts will change before winter though; how much who knows?

Is this a helpful bookmark? What are the chances of shear breaking up the system? I would think Cuba and the Islands would weaken it a lot but not destroy Chris enough that it could not reform over GoM. Shear would be the biggest threat to this going hurricane IMO, taking account its on track to the bathtub.

At 17.9C I did not expect to undercook my July CET by such a wide margin. I can't imagine a below average summer month but nor do I think we'll have July again. So I'll put August down for just below my July figure. 17.7C.

No. But I do know World Population: 6,600,115,810 = 6.6 billion persons 6.6 BILLION Earth: 148,939,100,000 m² = 148 billion m² land. Persons averaged out each take 0.5 metre square of physical space (some more some less) at a fair few inches thick; that's 3.3 billion m² land - 2.2% of Earth's land surface. Which would completely cover: Britain: 244,820,000 m² France: 674,843,000 m² Germany:357,050,000 m² Spain: 504,782.000 m² Portugal: 92,390,000 m² Italy: 301,318,000 m² Turkey: 780,580,000 m² All covered with people, with no gaps. Or India India: 3,287,590,000 m² Can you imagine a radiator the size of India at a constant 37C ??

Had some nice hefty cumulus floating by the other day.

This is a basic introduction - I don't know enough myself to say anything advanced, but simple stuff is easy to find. A Jet stream is a belt of fast-moving (hurricane++ speed) air at high altitudes that are found between polar (cold) and tropical (hot) air masses in the northern and southern hemispheres. Basically the way the hot air from the equator and the cold from the poles sort out the temperature conflict is with a big fight all the way around the earth along the boundary of the air masses - Face-Off villain and hero shooting at each other through the glass style, always going west-east in both hemispheres, due to the Coriolis effect (the rotation of the Earth). Jet streams are so-called because on weather charts they look like streams. Passenger jets often catch a lift on them, using them as a conveyor belt to get somewhere faster on less fuel (this is only possible in the west to east direction). Like a skipping rope being flicked from one end the jet stream meanders up and down - the bends also go in a west-east direction. This can help forecasters predict what weather is coming and where weather is going. Eg. if the Jet stream bends up from the Atlantic and goes north over Britain we get in the hot air. You can see in the above image of the Jet stream today, with that big streak of red. It was over 30C in much of UK. In march this year the Jet stream was much lower, nearer Spain, and it was cold in Europe. The bends of the Jet stream move slower than the winds in them, and you can see an example of the wind speed in the above image. The exact position of the jet streams fluctuates and is affected by the seasons - in summer the hot air beats the cold on average further northwards and in the winter the cold fights back, bringing colder air south more often. A look at the northern hemisphere today. Here's a link to a live Jet stream animation.